Welcome to the NFL in a time of COVID. The New England Patriots will travel to Arrowhead Stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday (7:05 p.m. ET) after Patriots quarterback Cam Newton tested positive for COVID-19 earlier this week.
That positive test, and the subsequent testing and protocols for New England, bumped this game from Sunday to Monday night. The NFL betting odds for this game have been up and down like a dog’s breakfast, but currently have the Chiefs as 11-point favorites.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Patriots vs. Chiefs on October 5.
New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs betting preview
Weather
The forecast is calling for temperatures in the mid-50s with clear skies and winds blowing SW up to 15 mph at Arrowhead Stadium on Monday night. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Patriots: Cam Newton QB (Out), James White RB (Questionable), David Andrews C (Out), Sony Michel RB (Out), Julian Edelman WR (Probable).
Chiefs: Chris Jones DT (Questionable), Alex Okafor DE (Questionable), La’Jarius Sneed DB (Out), Andrew Wylie T (Questionable), Ricky Seals-Jones TE (Questionable).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Chiefs are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight home games. Find more NFL betting trends for Patriots vs. Chiefs.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Our original betting preview for this game had us selecting Kansas City -7. Now we have to not only equate the worth of Newton to this spread but also the extra day of rest for Kansas City and an abrupt travel schedule for the Patriots.
New England won’t roll into Kansas City until Monday morning, rather than the day before. The travel itinerary was drum-tight even before Newton’s positive test, due to COVID protocols, but now New England will be poked and prodded multiple times before even getting inside Arrowhead.
Stepping in for Newton is veteran QB Brian Hoyer, at least according to early reports. Hoyer is a journeyman backup that not only lacks the passing prowess of Newton but is nowhere near as dangerous with his legs. That dual-threat danger is what made New England tough to game plan against and without it, the Chiefs defense knows that half of Josh McDaniels’ playbook just got ripped out.
Kansas City’s defense was the star of the show last Monday night, with quick tackles on Baltimore's short passes, which didn’t allow any yards after contact or after the catch. The Chiefs were pushed around on the ground by the Ravens, but New England can’t match K.C.’s firepower with just the run game.
PREDICTION: Kansas City -11 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The revamped total came out at 50 points for Monday night, just a field goal lower than the original number. New England was calling run on more than 52 percent of its offensive snaps with Newton under center and its best plan of attack versus the Chiefs remains playing keep away from Patrick Mahomes with an extra serving of rushing attempts – at least until they fall behind big and are forced to throw.
The Patriots did a good job of dominating the ball last week against the Raiders, running 38 times for 250 yards and a time of possession count of 34:39. Newton picked up only 27 of those yards on the turf, with RB Sony Michel having a 117-yard day. Michel is nursing a quad injury, but the Pats could have James White back in the ground game and he helps them chew up the clock.
New England’s defense, while shaky and missing many key components from last season, is a dangerous bunch and can cause a little chaos. The Patriots are second in the NFL in takeaways with four interceptions and three fumble recoveries and have picked off Mahomes three times in their two all-time meetings.
The new Over/Under is too high, considering how less dynamic the New England offense is without Cam (and no prep for Hoyer beyond Zoom meetings) and how this K.C. defense can sell out to stop the run and make Hoyer look like the backup he is.
PREDICTION: Under 50 (-110)
First quarter pick
It’s been anything but football for the Patriots the past few days, and it will be tough to find their focus heading into this rescheduled game given the situation.
Hoyer comes in cold with no practice time available to gain any traction with his receivers or shake some rust off with the first-teamers. And as mentioned above, this playbook is limited given no Newton and Hoyer’s lack of mobility, forcing McDaniels to blow the dust off the old Tom Brady sets. New England does have great coaches who will adjust at the break, but things will be ugly in the opening 15 minutes.
As for Kansas City, the Chiefs haven’t exactly exploded out of the blocks, scoring a total of only six points in first quarters through three weeks of action. Kansas City went scoreless in the first frame in Week 1 and Week 2 before putting up six first-quarter points against Baltimore (TD with missed PAT) last Monday.
PREDICTION: First quarter Under 10 (-119)
Patriots vs Chiefs betting card
- Kansas City -11 (-110)
- Under 50 (-110)
- First quarter Under 10 (-119)
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