Browns vs Ravens Week 1 picks and predictions

The Cleveland Browns' best option this weekend will be to bleed the clock and keep the ball out of reigning MVP Lamar Jackson's hands.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
Sep 7, 2020 • 04:25 ET

The Cleveland Browns get a mulligan in 2020 after falling well short of the hype last season. The biggest reason for that flop is gone, with Cleveland kicking Freddie Kitchens to the curb and bringing in offensive guru Kevin Stefanski as its head coach.

The Browns will need offense, and lots of it, if they want to keep pace with the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1. The NFL betting lines have Baltimore as an 8.5-point favorite for the AFC North rivalry.  

Check out our best NFL free picks and predictions for Browns vs. Ravens on September 13. **video

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens betting preview

Weather

Temperatures in the high-70s with a 20 percent chance of rain and scattered thunderstorms. Winds blowing SSE reaching 7 mph. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.

Key Injuries

Browns: Jarvis Landry WR (Probable), Mack Wilson LB (Out), Chris Hubbard OT (Out), J.C. Tretter C (Probable), Greedy Williams CB (Out), M.J. Stewart CB (Probable), Kevin Johnson CB (Out)
Ravens: Justin Madubuike DT (Out), Chris Moore WR (Out), CB Jimmy Smith (Probable)
Find our latest NFL injury reports.

Betting Trend to Know

The Browns are 17-38-1 ATS in their last 56 games as underdogs. Find more NFL betting trends for Browns vs. Ravens.

Against the spread pick

Drawing the Ravens in Week 1 is harsh barley, even if preseason prep was rolling as usual. But it’s not, and that’s a problem for the Browns. 

Baltimore’s relentless pace on offense and physical running style will test the game-shape conditioning of a Cleveland defense that’s learning a new system under coordinator Joe Woods. Woods traditionally likes to utilize more defensive backs than linebackers, which helps match the Ravens’ speed, but Cleveland fans may have to wait until these teams meet in Week 14 to see that unit at its peak.

As for the Browns’ scoring attack, the offensive line could be a soft spot in Week 1. Starting center J.C. Tretter is expected to miss the opener, leaving rookie Nick Harris to take over at one of the most undervalued positions in football. On top of that, Cleveland has another rookie on the line with highly-touted tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. getting his first taste of the pros.

Baltimore padded its pass rush this offseason with the additions of Calais Campbell and Derek Wolfe on the defensive line, which should help linebackers Tyus Bowser and Matthew Judon find the QB. Baker Mayfield’s struggles under pressure are well-documented and those veteran Ravens rushers will take the Browns’ rookie linemen to school.

PREDICTION: Baltimore -8.5 (-110)

 

Over/Under pick

Cleveland’s best option is to stick to the ground and pound out the clock, keeping the ball out of Lamar Jackson’s hands. And with Stefanski calling the shots, a steady dose of run is likely on the way. But I don’t see that game plan lasting long.

The Ravens are going to get their points, putting pressure on the Browns to air it out more than they’d like. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, with receiving options like Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry and new tight end Austin Hooper

There’s too much firepower on the field for both sides to back away from the Over – even with limited camp and zero preseason reps. 

PREDICTION: Over 48.5 (-110)

Player Prop Pick

Mark Andrews is primed for a big season as the Ravens’ top tight end. He reportedly came into camp in great shape and is looking to build on a 2019 in which he reeled in 64 balls for 852 yards and 10 touchdowns, including a total of 124 yards and three scores over two games with Cleveland.

The Browns struggled against opposing tight ends last season, allowing a collective 833 yards and 10 touchdowns to the position. And even with Baltimore trying to take some of the receiving load off the TEs – leaning into a young WR corps – Andrews’ sure hands and improved explosiveness make him the go-to target in the red zone.

PREDICTION: Mark Andrews touchdown anytime (+120)

Browns vs Ravens betting card

  • Baltimore -8.5 (-110)
  • Over 48.5 (-110)
  • Mark Andrews touchdown anytime (+120)
NFL Parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed this week’s NFL Browns vs. Ravens picks, you could win $70.18 on a $10 bet?

Use our NFL parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.

Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.

He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.

On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast – WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio – he’s had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers’ flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

His best advice for bettors new and old is “Handicapping isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.”

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