Rookie quarterback Justin Herbert and the 1-2 Los Angeles Chargers head to Florida on Sunday to take on Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in an interesting Week 4 NFL betting matchup. The Bolts are coming off a 21-16 loss to the Carolina Panthers, who had lost 10 straight games before last week’s victory. Bruce Arians’ Bucs have won two in a row, including beating the same Carolina team 31-17 in Week 2.
NFL odds had Tampa Bay open as 7.5-point favorites with some books offering -7. The total opened at a flat 45 and has gone down to 43.5.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Chargers vs. Buccaneers on Sunday, October 4.
Los Angeles Chargers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers betting preview
Weather
It's raining in Tampa with the showers expected to continue into this 1 p.m. ET kickoff but those could let up later in the afternoon. Winds are blowing at 8 mph. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Chargers: Mike Williams WR (Out), Derwin James S (Out), Chris Harris Jr. CB (Out), Bryan Bulaga T (Out), Trai Turner G (Out), Melvin Ingram DL (Out), Tyrod Taylor QB (Out), Mike Pouncey C (Out).
Buccaneers: Chris Godwin WR (Out), Leonard Fournette RB (Out), Justin Evans S (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
A common theme with the Chargers is 1-5-1 ATS: L.A. is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven games,1-5-1 ATS in its last seven games on grass and 1-5-1 ATS following a game where it passes for over 250 yards the week before. Find more NFL betting trends for Chargers vs. Buccaneers.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn has made a debacle of his QB situation to date and said he couldn’t rule out Tyrod Taylor for Week 4. If you are looking for the worst way to give confidence to your rookie QB, Lynn’s actions are a perfect template.
Justin Herbert has had just one week of NFL practice with the ones and has thrown for 641 yards in his first two NFL starts. This team is better with Herbert under center...and could be better without Lynn. The Chargers’ defense allowed Carolina inside their own 20-yard line in five of the six first-half possessions and the team played undisciplined football as a whole, getting flagged eight times and turning the ball over a ridiculous four times.
Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay passing attack, even possibly without WR Chris Godwin (hamstring), could have a plus matchup against a Chargers’ secondary which was already thin heading into Week 3 and sustained two injuries to its starting defensive backs. Slot corner Chris Harris Jr. was injured last week, as was starting safety Nasir Adderley, are both questionable for Sunday. Already without All-Pro SS Derwin James, this is a defensive unit that is on life support and allowed Carolina’s Teddy Bridgewater to complete 78 percemt of his passes last week.
Tampa Bay is a better passing team than a running team, even if Godwin doesn’t play. We expect Bruce Arians to attack the injured L.A. secondary early and often, which should help the home team cover more than a touchdown. L.A. could also be without its best offensive lineman, as Bryan Bulaga had to leave Week 3 with a back injury.
PREDICTION: Tampa Bay -7.5 (-122)
Over/Under pick
The Buccaneers were six-point favorites last week and throttled a weak Denver team 28-10. The offense only scored five second-half points as the game lulled to an Under by four points. The Chargers’ defense has not allowed more than 20 points in regulation this year and will face a Buccaneers’ offense that ranks in the middle of the league in yards per pass and is in the bottom-five in yards per rush. L.A.’s four turnovers and eight penalties last week were a killer for anyone cheering for the Over.
The Over cashed in 10-of-15 non-OT Week 3 games, but both the Chargers and Bucs were involved in two of the five Under matches. L.A.'s penalty and ball security issues, combined with Tampa Bay seeming to let up offensively when leading (15 points scored last two second-halves), we are on the Under.
PREDICTION: Under 43.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
Just because we are backing the Buccaneers, doesn’t mean we can’t have any action on the Chargers. WR Keenan Allen had just four catches for 37 yards in Week 1 with Taylor under center. Since the Bolts have turned to the rookie Herbert, Allen has been targeted 29 times in two weeks which he has turned into 20 catches, 229 yards and a touchdown. Even when L.A. was leading in Week 2 versus the Chiefs, Allen still got his. He is game-flow proof with Herbert tossing him the rock.
Allen saw an impressive 41.3 percent of the Chargers’ targets and has seen plenty of snaps out wide as well as in the slot. Tampa Bay’s slot corner, Sean Murphy-Bunting, is also questionable heading into Week 4 after exiting last week with a hamstring injury.
PREDICTION: Keenan Allen Over 4.5 receptions (-150)
Chargers vs Buccaneers betting card
- Tampa Bay -7.5 (-122)
- Under 43.5 (-110)
- Keenan Allen Over 4.5 receptions (-150)
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