The 2024-25 NBA season will one day be remembered as the year Shai Gilgeous-Alexander blossomed into a true superstar.
The Oklahoma City Thunder sensation has somehow found a new gear in the new year, as evidenced by a trio of 50-point performances against the Jazz, Warriors, and Suns. His highlight-worthy play has catapulted OKC to the top of the Western Conference standings, where they sit 8.5 games ahead of the second-place Memphis Grizzlies following the NBA All-Star break.
Let's take a peek at the 2025 NBA Most Valuable Player odds to see where the rest of the competition stacks up.
2025 NBA MVP odds
| Player |  |
|---|---|
 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander |
-550 |
 Nikola Jokic |
+375 |
 Giannis Antetokounmpo |
+10000 |
 Jayson Tatum |
+25000 |
 Donovan Mitchell |
+50000 |
 Karl-Anthony Towns |
+50000 |
 Anthony Edwards |
+50000 |
Odds as of 2-25
2024 NBA MVP favorites
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Just how low can he go? Shai Gilgeous Alexander's already prohibitive NBA MVP odds have dropped from -350 to -650 at FanDuel as he continues to keep the Oklahoma City Thunder comfortably atop the Western Conference standings.
SGA's offense gets most of the attention - and deservedly so - but it's his defense that has progressed the most during his epic seventh season. The two-time All-Star is averaging career highs in steals (2.0) and blocks (1.1) and has made a habit of shutting down opposing guards on a nightly basis. His ball hawking has helped the Thunder achieve the best defensive rating in the NBA and has the team's faithful daydreaming about a championship run.
Gilgeous-Alexander was also the preseason target at BetMGM for many MVP bettors, leading both ticket count (14.5%) and handle (24.1%). He presently has the highest handle percentage (28.2%) at the sportsbook.
| PTS | REB | AST | FG% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32.4 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 52.3 |
Nikola Jokic
What more is there to say about Nikola Jokic at this point?
The man is an elite offense unto himself. He'll score about as efficiently as anyone in NBA history, and do so entirely within the flow of an attack he also coordinates, with passing few have ever had the vision for.
While the loss of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope further stretches a roster that may have already lacked for Bruce Brown last season, we can expect a supremely-efficient triple-double average from Jokic, and 50+ wins for the Denver Nuggets, which is a pretty iron-clad argument for MVP contention, at the very least.
The biggest reason to fade Jokic's MVP chase beyond SGA's lights-out play is voter fatigue. The historical implications of a fourth MVP (which is how many LeBron James and Bill Russell each won) may also weigh on ballots come April. Despite those concerns, Jokic presently has the highest ticket percentage (17.4%) and second highest handle percentage (21.0%) at BetMGM.
| PTS | REB | AST | FG% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.2 | 12.6 | 10.4 | 57.5 |
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Jokic isn't the only multiple MVP on the board. Two-time winner Giannis Antetokounmpo has slid into the Top 3 after a sizzling stretch in late November in which he averaged 32.5 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 7.3 assists per game and was named Eastern Conference Player of the Week. His strong play earned the Bucks a spot in the NBA Cup Final, where they silenced the Thunder, 97-81.
Now in his 12th season with the Bucks, the Greek Freak is scoring at a career-high rate while hitting 60.8% of his shots, the best mark in the league among all non-centers.
| PTS | REB | AST | FG% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31.0 | 12.0 | 5.8 | 61.0 |
Jayson Tatum
The NBA is a league of petty superstars, so there was little doubt how Jayson Tatum would start the season after being denied NBA Finals MVP honors and riding the pine at the Paris Olympics.
The five-time All-Star is averaging 26.8 points per game to go along with 8.8 rebounds and 5.7 assists, both career bests. Tatum is locked in to a degree we haven't seen this early in the season before and appears hellbent on reminding the world (or at least Steve Kerr) just how dominant he really is.
He presently is second among all players in ticket percentage (12.6%) at BetMGM.
| PTS | REB | AST | FG% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26.8 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 45.3 |
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NBA MVP predictions
Oddsmakers are telling us that if the season ended today, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (-550 at bet365) would win his first NBA MVP award in a landslide. SGA's -550 odds convert to a 84.6% implied probability.
Jon Metler's 2025 NBA MVP prediction
Give me Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for NBA MVP. He's the best player on the best team and is impactful on both ends of the floor. If we matched up his individual stats against Nikola Jokic's, it would be much tougher for Gilgeous-Alexander to win the award, but team success and voter fatigue with Jokic should help him secure his first NBA MVP.
-Covers Betting Analyst Jon Metler
NBA MVP AI prediction from Grok
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the significant favorite to win the NBA MVP for the 2025 season. Here's why:
Team performance: The Oklahoma City Thunder are currently atop the Western Conference standings, with an eight-game margin over the next team. His leadership and performance are key factors in this success, which traditionally plays a significant role in MVP voting.
Individual performance: Gilgeous-Alexander has been scoring at an elite level, averaging 32.7 points on 52.8% shooting, showcasing his efficiency and impact on the game. His ability to lead his team to the best record in the league while being one of the top scorers gives him a strong case.
Public and expert sentiment: Posts on X and articles from sports betting and analysis websites consistently mention Gilgeous-Alexander as the frontrunner, reflecting both public betting trends and expert opinions.
NBA MVP odds over time
This year's MVP chase is sure to be a heavyweight melee. Follow along all season as we update this graphic with contenders rising and falling.
2025 NBA MVP opening odds
- Luka Doncic +350
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +400
- Nikola Jokic +475
- Giannis Antetokounmpo +850
- Jayson Tatum +1000
- Anthony Edwards +1200
- Jalen Brunson +1400
- Victor Wembanyama +2000
- Ja Morant +3500
- Joel Embiid +5000
How to read NBA MVP odds
Most sportsbooks will display odds in the American format as listed above. Nikola Jokic had all but locked up the award by the end of the 2024 season, so his odds were listed with a minus (-) sign ahead of the number.
- Nikola Jokic -1000
The (-) meant that Jokic was an odds-on favorite, and a bettor needed to wager $1,000 to win $100. Other contenders in the MVP race had plus (+) odds to win.
- Luka Doncic +650
Here, a bettor stood to profit $650 for a $100 wager on Doncic if he had won the award.
If American odds aren't your thing, simply use a tool like our odds converter to switch the odds to decimal or fractional format. Most online sportsbooks also give you the option to change the odds format that you see.
Popular NBA futures odds
- NBA championship odds
- NBA Rookie of the Year odds
- NBA Most Improved Player odds
- NBA Defensive Player of the Year odds
NBA MVP betting trends
Here are some trends you may want to consider before placing a bet on the NBA MVP at your favorite basketball betting site:
- Repeat winners are somewhat common. Jokic's 2022 win marked the 13th different player to have won the award two (or more) years in a row.
- The MVP usually comes from an elite team. Since 1985, only five MVP winners have come from a team that didn't finish first or second in its conference.
- The award is usually given to a player with a few years of experience. A rookie hasn't won MVP since Wes Unseld in 1969, and only four MVPs have been younger than 23 years old.
- Centers have historically dominated the MVP award. While they went on a two-decade drought between Shaquille O'Neal (2000) and Nikola Jokic (2021), centers have now won the last four MVPs.
NBA MVP voting criteria
The NBA's Most Valuable Player award is voted on by a panel of 100 media members, comprised of both national and local analysts.
Only regular-season games are taken into account (ballots are due shortly after the schedule concludes), and the league has intentionally not included specific criteria to guide voters, leading to a more open interpretation of "value", and the type of debate that now dominates media cycles and podcasts every March-April.
Despite the absence of a rubric, voters have generally trended towards awarding an MVP who leads a dominant team campaign (the "best player on the best team" is a popular contender argument).
Statistics are also a crucial factor to consider. However, with the rise of analytic models, traditional stats like points, rebounds, and assists have begun to carry less raw weight, despite still being part of the equation. Advanced stats like win shares, plus-minus, and VORP (value over replacement player) are leaned upon heavily in most discussions.
A player who has MVP moments throughout the season will resonate with voters too: monster stat lines in big games, outperforming rivals in head-to-head matchups, clutch performances — anything to add extra appeal to their MVP case.
In today's age of load management, how much an MVP plays is of increasing importance. The league's newly-imposed 65-game minimum for award contenders will help curb the debate here, but a player who suits up every night is inherently more valuable.
And, while it's unfortunate to admit, voter fatigue absolutely governs this process when a player wins several awards and the media perform mental gymnastics to vote for another player, whether out of boredom or contrarianism. It happened to Michael Jordan. It happened to LeBron James. It possibly just happened to Nikola Jokic. It will happen again.
NBA MVP betting history
A quick look at recent NBA MVPs and their opening odds.
| Season | Player | Opening Odds | Team |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Nikola Jokic | +450 | Denver Nuggets |
| 2022-23 | Joel Embiid | +600 |  Philadelphia 76ers |
| 2021-22 | Nikola Jokic | +1600 | Denver Nuggets |
| 2020-21 | Nikola Jokic | +2500 | Denver Nuggets |
| 2019-20 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | +210 |  Milwaukee Bucks |
| 2018-19 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | +475 | Milwaukee Bucks |
| 2017-18 | James Harden | +1100 |  Houston Rockets |
| 2016-17 | Russell Westbrook | +200 | Oklahoma City Thunder |
| 2015-16 | Stephen Curry | +650 |  Golden State Warriors |
| 2014-15 | Stephen Curry | +1600 | Golden State Warriors |
NBA MVP odds FAQ
The NBA intentionally leaves "value" open to the interpretation of voters, who typically look for a dominant player on an elite team.
NBA voters submit MVP ballots shortly after the regular season concludes, and playoff games are not considered.
Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets won the 2024 NBA MVP.
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar holds the all-time record with six NBA MVPs.
Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic has the second shortest MVP odds at +425.
The NBA MVP award is voted on by a panel of sportswriters and broadcasters from the United States and Canada. This panel consists of approximately 100 members who cover the NBA regularly throughout the season. They vote for the player they believe has been the most valuable to their team based on their performance throughout the regular season.
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar holds the record for winning the most NBA MVP awards in league history. He won the MVP award six times during his legendary career with the Milwaukee Bucks and Los Angeles Lakers.
