2025 NBA MVP Odds: SGA Leapfrogs Joker

The 2024-25 NBA season is nearing the halfway point and we've already seen some some serious movement at the top of the NBA MVP odds board with Oklahoma City Thunder sensation Shai Gilgeous Alexander supplanting Denver Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokic for the No. 1 spot.

The All-NBA guard has somehow found a new gear in the new year, as evidenced by back-to-back 33-points outbursts in wins over the Knicks and Celtics. His stellar play has catapulted OKC to the top of the Western Conference standings, where they sit six games ahead of the second-place Rockets.

Let's take a peek at the 2025 NBA Most Valuable Player odds as the new season continues to unfold.

2025 NBA MVP odds

Player
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	-190	-170	-220
Nikola Jokic	+165	+145	+175
Giannis Antetokounmpo	+2200	+2000	+2000
Jayson Tatum	+3000	+3500	+3500
Victor Wembanyama	+10000	+10000	+10000
Donovan Mitchell	+15000	+25000	+20000
Jalen Brunson	+15000	+50000	+25000
Karl-Anthony Towns	+20000	+25000	+20000
Anthony Edwards	+20000	+25000	+20000
Kevin Durant	+25000	+50000	+30000

Odds as of 1-14

2024 NBA MVP favorites

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

As the Clippers bid adieu to Paul George this summer, one couldn't help but notice how well things are going for the Oklahoma City Thunder on the other side of that fateful 2019 PG trade.

Not only did the Thunder pocket a zillion draft picks in the deal, but a young Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who finished second in MVP voting last season and could very well win the damn thing in 2025. Meanwhile, OKC is looking to make a deep playoff run after precociously notching the West's No. 1 seed last season.

SGA is a beast on both sides of the ball; equally impossible to stay in front of and avoid. One of the NBA's best pure scorers, he operates more efficiently than just about any lead ball-handler in the league — all the more impressive given the unconventional nature of his game. 

The Thunder have upside to spare, and might just make the kind of mini-leap that puts them in a class by themselves in the West, which will shine the MVP spotlight on Gilgeous-Alexander even brighter. 

SGA was also the preseason target at BetMGM for many MVP bettors, leading both ticket count (14.5%) and handle (24.1%). He presently has the highest handle percentage (23.4%) at the sportsbook.

Nikola Jokic

I mean, what more is there to say about Nikola Jokic at this point?

The man is an elite offense unto himself. He'll score about as efficiently as anyone in NBA history, and do so entirely within the flow of an attack he also coordinates, with passing few have ever had the vision for.

While the loss of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope further stretches a roster that may have already lacked for Bruce Brown last season, we can expect a supremely-efficient triple-double average from Jokic, and 50+ wins for the Denver Nuggets, which is a pretty iron-clad argument for MVP contention, at the very least.

The biggest reason to fade Jokic's MVP chase is, honestly, voter fatigue. The historical implications of a fourth MVP (which is how many LeBron James and Bill Russell each won) may also weigh on ballots come April. Despite those concerns, Jokic presently has the fourth highest ticket percentage (9.4%) and second highest handle percentage (15.7%) at BetMGM.

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Jokic isn't the only multiple MVP on the board. Two-time winner Giannis Antetokounmpo has slid into the Top 3 after a sizzling stretch in late November in which he averaged 32.5 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 7.3 assists per game and was named Eastern Conference Player of the Week. His strong play earned the Bucks a spot in the NBA Cup Final, where they silenced the Thunder, 97-81.

Now in his 12th season with the Bucks, the Greek Freak is scoring at a career-high rate while hitting 59.8% of his shots, the second best mark in the league among all non-centers.

Jayson Tatum

The NBA is a league of petty superstars, so there was little doubt how Jayson Tatum would start the season after being denied NBA Finals MVP honors and riding the pine at the Paris Olympics. 

The five-time All-Star is averaging 28.1 points per game to go along with 9.4 rebounds and 5.3 assists, both career bests. Tatum is locked in to a degree we haven't seen this early in the season before and appears hellbent on reminding the world (or at least Steve Kerr) just how dominant he really is.

He presently leads all players in ticket percentage (12.7%) at BetMGM and is considered to be the sportsbook's biggest liability.

NBA MVP predictions

Oddsmakers are telling us that if the season ended today, Nikola Jokic (-115 at DraftKings) would be the NBA MVP in a close race over Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+380 at DraftKings). Jokic's -115 odds convert to a 53.5% implied probability, while SGA's +380 odds convert to an implied probability of 20.8%.

Jon Metler's NBA MVP prediction: Nikola Jokic

If LeBron James could win the NBA MVP award four times in five seasons, why can't Nikola Jokic? The Denver Nuggets center could achieve it in a similar way, winning twice, missing out in the third year, and then winning back-to-back again in years four and five.

It might be a boring pick, and I'm sure many will root for literally anyone else, but the reality is that Jokic's stats are insane, and he fully deserves to win it. He's a walking triple-double and the most dominant player in the NBA.

NBA MVP odds over time

This year's MVP chase is sure to be a heavyweight melee. Follow along all season as we update this graphic with contenders rising and falling. 

2025 NBA MVP opening odds

• Luka Doncic +350
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +400
• Nikola Jokic +475
• Giannis Antetokounmpo +850
• Jayson Tatum +1000
• Anthony Edwards +1200
• Jalen Brunson +1400
• Victor Wembanyama +2000
• Ja Morant +3500
• Joel Embiid +5000

How to read NBA MVP odds

Most sportsbooks will display odds in the American format as listed above. Nikola Jokic had all but locked up the award by the end of the 2024 season, so his odds were listed with a minus (-) sign ahead of the number. 

• Nikola Jokic -1000

The (-) meant that Jokic was an odds-on favorite, and a bettor needed to wager $1,000 to win $100. Other contenders in the MVP race had plus (+) odds to win.

• Luka Doncic +650

Here, a bettor stood to profit $650 for a $100 wager on Doncic if he had won the award. 

If American odds aren't your thing, simply use a tool like our odds converter to switch the odds to decimal or fractional format. Most online sportsbooks also give you the option to change the odds format that you see.

Popular NBA futures odds

• NBA championship odds
• NBA Rookie of the Year odds
• NBA Most Improved Player odds
• NBA Defensive Player of the Year odds

NBA MVP betting trends

Here are some trends you may want to consider before placing a bet on the NBA MVP at your favorite basketball betting site: 

• Repeat winners are somewhat common. Jokic's 2022 win marked the 13th different player to have won the award two (or more) years in a row.
• The MVP usually comes from an elite team. Since 1985, only five MVP winners have come from a team that didn't finish first or second in its conference.
• The award is usually given to a player with a few years of experience. A rookie hasn't won MVP since Wes Unseld in 1969, and only four MVPs have been younger than 23 years old.
• Centers have historically dominated the MVP award. While they went on a two-decade drought between Shaquille O'Neal (2000) and Nikola Jokic (2021), centers have now won the last four MVPs.

NBA MVP voting criteria

The NBA's Most Valuable Player award is voted on by a panel of 100 media members, comprised of both national and local analysts.

Only regular-season games are taken into account (ballots are due shortly after the schedule concludes), and the league has intentionally not included specific criteria to guide voters, leading to a more open interpretation of "value", and the type of debate that now dominates media cycles and podcasts every March-April.

Despite the absence of a rubric, voters have generally trended towards awarding an MVP who leads a dominant team campaign (the "best player on the best team" is a popular contender argument).

Statistics are also a crucial factor to consider. However, with the rise of analytic models, traditional stats like points, rebounds, and assists have begun to carry less raw weight, despite still being part of the equation. Advanced stats like win shares, plus-minus, and VORP (value over replacement player) are leaned upon heavily in most discussions.

A player who has MVP moments throughout the season will resonate with voters too: monster stat lines in big games, outperforming rivals in head-to-head matchups, clutch performances — anything to add extra appeal to their MVP case.

In today's age of load management, how much an MVP plays is of increasing importance. The league's newly-imposed 65-game minimum for award contenders will help curb the debate here, but a player who suits up every night is inherently more valuable.

And, while it's unfortunate to admit, voter fatigue absolutely governs this process when a player wins several awards and the media perform mental gymnastics to vote for another player, whether out of boredom or contrarianism. It happened to Michael Jordan. It happened to LeBron James. It possibly just happened to Nikola Jokic. It will happen again. 

NBA MVP betting history

A quick look at recent NBA MVPs and their opening odds.

Season	Player	Opening Odds	Team
2023-24	Nikola Jokic	+450	Denver Nuggets
2022-23	Joel Embiid	+600	Philadelphia 76ers
2021-22	Nikola Jokic	+1600	Denver Nuggets
2020-21	Nikola Jokic	+2500	Denver Nuggets
2019-20	Giannis Antetokounmpo	+210	Milwaukee Bucks
2018-19	Giannis Antetokounmpo	+475	Milwaukee Bucks
2017-18	James Harden	+1100	Houston Rockets
2016-17	Russell Westbrook	+200	Oklahoma City Thunder
2015-16	Stephen Curry	+650	Golden State Warriors
2014-15	Stephen Curry	+1600	Golden State Warriors

NBA MVP odds FAQ

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