The new NBA season is only a week old, but we've already seen some massive movement in the NBA MVP odds market.
Reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains the favorite, but the news is that Spurs star Victor Wembanyama has jumped from 12/1 to +275 following an opening four games that have seen him average 31 points, 13.8 rebounds, and 2.8 assists — with San Antonio starting a perfect 4-0.
🏀2026 NBA MVP odds
| Player |  |
|---|---|
 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander |
+175 |
 Victor Wembanyama |
+275 |
 Nikola Jokic |
+375 |
 Luka Doncic |
+650 |
 Giannis Antetokounmpo |
+850 |
 Anthony Edwards |
+6000 |
 Tyrese Maxey |
+6000 |
 Stephen Curry |
+10000 |
🤖 NBA MVP AI prediction
It should come as no surprise that ChatGPT is a big fan of SGA. Here's what the chatbot had to say about the defending NBA MVP winner:
With voters increasingly sensitive to both team success and two-way impact, SGA has the cleanest path to an MVP narrative this season. He's the best player on a top-two team in the West, elite efficiency from all three levels, and offers real defensive bite at the point of attack. His game scales without drama—he can dominate in isolation or flow within movement-heavy actions, and he gets to the line a ton without forcing bad shots. If Oklahoma City’s depth keeps their net ratings gaudy when he sits, while his on/off still pops, he’ll own the “drives winning” storyline that tends to decide close MVP races.
Jokic is the rightful favorite, but he’s also up against soft voter fatigue and a Nuggets organization that has every incentive to pace him for June. Doncic will put up video-game numbers again, yet the bar for heliocentric guards keeps rising, and defensive skepticism plus any midseason usage management could ding his case.
By contrast, SGA’s steadiness, durability, and two-way credibility give him multiple avenues to “win” the discourse even if raw counting stats are a tick lower—especially if the Thunder post the league’s best record.
💰2026 NBA MVP opening odds
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +150
- Nikola Jokic +350
- Luka Doncic +380
- Giannis Antetokounmpo +1200
- Victor Wembanyama +1200
- Anthony Edwards +2500
- Kevin Durant +5000
- Cade Cunningham +6000
- Jalen Brunson +8000
- Donovan Mitchell +10000
- Paolo Banchero +10000
- Trae Young +15000
NBA MVP betting data
The following data is courtesy of BetMGM.
- Highest ticket percentage: Luka Doncic 20.6%
- Highest handle percentage: Luka Doncic 31.4%
- Biggest liability: Luka Doncic
Popular NBA futures odds
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How is the NBA MVP decided?
The MVP award is one of the most prestigious honors in professional basketball—and one of the most debated. But how is the MVP actually chosen?
🗳️ MVP Voting Process
The MVP is determined by a panel of 100 sportswriters and broadcasters from the U.S. and Canada, as well as a fan vote that counts as one ballot. Each voter selects five players, ranked from first to fifth place. The point system is as follows:
- 1st place vote: 10 points
- 2nd place: 7 points
- 3rd place: 5 points
- 4th place: 3 points
- 5th place: 1 point
The player with the highest total point tally at the end of voting is crowned NBA MVP.
📊 What Do Voters Consider?
While there's no official checklist, MVP voters typically weigh several key factors:
- Individual statistics: Points, assists, rebounds, efficiency, advanced metrics like PER or Win Shares
- Team success: MVPs are rarely chosen from losing teams and Top 3 seeds are the norm
- Narrative and storyline: Voters often reward players overcoming adversity or carrying a franchise
- Consistency and availability: Games played, durability, and clutch performance matter
👀 Voter Biases and Trends
Some unofficial trends also influence MVP outcomes:
- “Voter fatigue”: Players who've already won may need to outperform their own past seasons to win again
- New blood bias: Voters sometimes prefer rising stars over repeat winners
- Position favoritism: Guards and forwards tend to dominate MVP voting, although that trend has been changing in recent years
📜NBA MVP betting history
A quick look at recent NBA MVPs and their opening odds.
| Season | Player | Opening Odds | Team |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | +400 | Oklahoma City Thunder |
| 2023-24 | Nikola Jokic | +450 | Denver Nuggets |
| 2022-23 | Joel Embiid | +600 |  Philadelphia 76ers |
| 2021-22 | Nikola Jokic | +1600 | Denver Nuggets |
| 2020-21 | Nikola Jokic | +2500 | Denver Nuggets |
| 2019-20 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | +210 |  Milwaukee Bucks |
| 2018-19 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | +475 | Milwaukee Bucks |
| 2017-18 | James Harden | +1100 |  Houston Rockets |
| 2016-17 | Russell Westbrook | +200 | Oklahoma City Thunder |
| 2015-16 | Stephen Curry | +650 |  Golden State Warriors |
| 2014-15 | Stephen Curry | +1600 | Golden State Warriors |
NBA MVP odds FAQ
The NBA intentionally leaves "valuable" open to the interpretation of voters, who typically look for a dominant player on an elite team.
NBA voters submit MVP ballots shortly after the regular season concludes, and playoff games are not considered.
Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets won the 2024 NBA MVP.
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar holds the all-time record with six NBA MVPs.
Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic has the second shortest MVP odds at +425.
The NBA MVP award is voted on by a panel of sportswriters and broadcasters from the United States and Canada. This panel consists of approximately 100 members who cover the NBA regularly throughout the season. They vote for the player they believe has been the most valuable to their team based on their performance throughout the regular season.
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar holds the record for winning the most NBA MVP awards in league history. He won the MVP award six times during his legendary career with the Milwaukee Bucks and Los Angeles Lakers.
