Victor Wembanyama and Luka Doncic have established themselves as the clear favorites to win the NBA MVP award, and there's a significant gap between them and the rest of the field. Both players are trading north of 30%, accounting for a substantial share of the market.
In the next tier of contenders, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the closest challenger at 13%, followed by Jayson Tatum of the Boston Celtics at 7%. However, the NBA MVP odds also leave room for a surprise contender. Tyrese Maxey is trading at 3%, with the Philadelphia 76ers off to a strong start to open the season.
Here's the latest NBA odds and market outlook for the 2027 NBA MVP award.
🏀 2027 NBA MVP odds
| Player |  |
|---|---|
 Victor Wembanyama |
36% |
 Luka Doncic |
33% |
 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander |
13% |
 Jayson Tatum |
7% |
 Nikola Jokic |
6% |
 Giannis Antetokounmpo |
3% |
 Tyrese Maxey |
3% |
 Cade Cunningham |
2% |
 Cooper Flagg |
2% |
 Donovan Mitchell |
2% |
Odds last updated on 11-5.
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📈 NBA MVP market outlook
Victor Wembanyama and Luka Doncic have separated themselves as the clear early favorites in this market, with both building compelling MVP cases for different reasons.
Doncic continues to thrive in his high-usage role with the Los Angeles Lakers following LeBron James' move to the Philadelphia 76ers, while Wembanyama appears to have taken another significant step forward in his development and has an entirely new path to winning the award.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's elite efficiency and the Oklahoma City Thunder's sustained success have always given him a significant advantage. It's difficult for voters to overlook the best player on what has been the Western Conference's best team.
However, Oklahoma City's injury issues to start the season could create an opportunity for San Antonio to finish ahead of the Thunder in the standings.
If the Spurs ultimately outperform Oklahoma City, that would significantly strengthen Wembanyama's MVP case, and we're already seeing that possibility reflected in the market.
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How is the NBA MVP decided?
The MVP award is one of the most prestigious honors in professional basketball — and one of the most debated. But how is the MVP actually chosen?
🗳️ MVP Voting Process
The MVP is determined by a panel of 100 sportswriters and broadcasters from the U.S. and Canada, as well as a fan vote that counts as one ballot.
Each voter selects five players, ranked from first to fifth place. The point system is as follows:
- 1st place vote: 10 points
- 2nd place: 7 points
- 3rd place: 5 points
- 4th place: 3 points
- 5th place: 1 point
The player with the highest total point tally at the end of voting is crowned NBA MVP.
📊 What Do Voters Consider?
While there's no official checklist, MVP voters typically weigh several key factors:
- Individual statistics: Points, assists, rebounds, efficiency, advanced metrics like PER or Win Shares
- Team success: MVPs are rarely chosen from losing teams, and Top 3 seeds are the norm
- Narrative and storyline: Voters often reward players overcoming adversity or carrying a franchise
- Consistency and availability: Games played, durability, and clutch performance matter
👀 Voter Biases and Trends
Some unofficial trends also influence MVP outcomes:
- “Voter fatigue”: Players who've already won may need to outperform their own past seasons to win again
- New blood bias: Voters sometimes prefer rising stars over repeat winners
- Position favoritism: Guards and forwards tend to dominate MVP voting, although that trend has been changing in recent years
📈 NBA MVP trends
Here are some trends you may want to consider before placing a bet on the NBA MVP:
- Repeat winners are somewhat common. Gilgeous-Alexander's 2026 win marked the 13th different player to have won the award two (or more) years in a row.
- The MVP usually comes from an elite team. Since 1985, only seven MVP winners have come from a team that didn't finish first or second in its conference.
- The award is usually given to a player with a few years of experience. A rookie hasn't won MVP since Wes Unseld in 1969, and only two MVPs have been 22 or younger (Wes Unseld and Derrick Rose).
- Centers have historically dominated the MVP award. While they went on a two-decade drought between Shaquille O'Neal (2000) and Nikola Jokic (2021), centers have now won four of the last six MVPs.
📜NBA MVP betting history
A quick look at recent NBA MVPs and their opening odds.
| Season | Player | Opening Odds | Team |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 40% |  Thunder |
| 2024-25 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 20% | Thunder |
| 2023-24 | Nikola Jokic | 18% |  Nuggets |
| 2022-23 | Joel Embiid | 14% |  76ers |
| 2021-22 | Nikola Jokic | 6% | Nuggets |
| 2020-21 | Nikola Jokic | 4% | Nuggets |
| 2019-20 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | 32% |  Bucks |
| 2018-19 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | 17% | Bucks |
| 2017-18 | James Harden | 8% |  Rockets |
| 2016-17 | Russell Westbrook | 33% | Thunder |
| 2015-16 | Stephen Curry | 13% |  Warriors |
| 2014-15 | Stephen Curry | 6% | Warriors |
Odds courtesy of Sports Odds History.
NBA MVP odds FAQ
The NBA intentionally leaves "valuable" open to the interpretation of voters, who typically look for a dominant player on an elite team.
NBA voters submit MVP ballots shortly after the regular season concludes, and playoff games are not considered.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder won the 2026 NBA MVP.
The NBA MVP award is voted on by a panel of sportswriters and broadcasters from the United States and Canada. This panel consists of approximately 100 members who cover the NBA regularly throughout the season. They vote for the player they believe has been the most valuable to their team based on their performance throughout the regular season.
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar holds the record for winning the most NBA MVP awards in league history. He won the MVP award six times during his legendary career with the Milwaukee Bucks and Los Angeles Lakers.
