Things could be much gloomier in Texas had the Dallas Cowboys not stolen an impossible victory in Week 2 and played in any other division besides the NFC East. But here we are, with America’s Team at 1-2 and still very much easing itself into the schedule, hosting the Cleveland Browns in Week 4.
Despite that bumpy start, the Cowboys are 4.5-point NFL betting favorites against a Browns team riding a two-game winning run into Sunday’s action.
Here are our best NFL free picks and predictions for Browns vs. Cowboys on October 4.
Cleveland Browns vs Dallas Cowboys betting preview
Weather
This game will be played inside at AT&T Stadium. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions for other Week 4 NFL games with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Browns: Greedy Williams CB (Out), Tae Davis LB (Out), Adrian Clayborn DE (Out).
Cowboys: Chidobe Awuzie CB (Out), Sean Lee LB (Out), Leighton Vander Esch LB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 10-4 in Cowboys’ last 14 games as home favorites. Find more NFL betting trends for Browns vs. Cowboys.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Dallas is 0-3 ATS through three weeks with those games being decided by three, one, and seven points. The Cowboys’ defensive short-comings are killing the efforts on offense and until the front seven starts to live up to its preseason billing, the secondary will watch deep balls fly over their heads and into the arms of waiting rival receivers.
The big issue with the Browns is the multitude of ways they can make you hurt. Cleveland has the best one-two rushing punch in football with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, and that’s going to keep the Cowboys pass rush honest. That tandem has Cleveland ranked third in rushing in the NFL, marching for more than 170 yards per game so far.
But if Dallas sells out to stop the run, you have action-starved receivers Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. licking their chops against Dallas’ dismal pass defense. The Browns may only rank 30th in passing in the NFL, but that’s more a case of their rushing attack being so good that this offense will gladly let Odell and Landry collect dust if the chains keep moving.
On defense, Cleveland’s centerpiece Myles Garrett is really starting to separate himself from the pack. The former No. 1-overall pick has just three sacks on the year, but he has two forced fumbles and tops the NFL in QB pressures with 19. He takes on a Dallas offensive line missing key bodies and possibly playing without Pro Bowl tackle Tyron Smith, who sat out the last two games with a neck injury.
I do not like this matchup for the Cowboys, especially with them giving this many points on a home field that’s never been worth anything to the spread.
PREDICTION: Cleveland +4.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Cleveland’s passing offense has been tempered through three games, with Baker Mayfield throwing for an average of just 6.2 yards per attempt and registering only six plays of 20 or more yards this season.
However, the Cowboys have coughed up 14 of those deep strikes, including multiple bombs to Seattle QB Russell Wilson last weekend. Dallas has done little to address this soft spot and is down another member of the secondary with CB Chidobe Awuzie on IR.
The Cowboys have the firepower to help combat those defensive woes. This is the top passing attack in the NFL and if Cleveland doesn’t close in on Dak Prescott quick, his stable of stud receivers will exploit the Browns secondary, which has given up gains to first and second-year QBs the past two weeks.
And when it comes to the ground game for both teams, Hunt, Chubb and Ezekiel Elliott are so good and so versatile, rush attempts and short passes are breaking off bigger yardage than the wide receivers. Zeke almost had as many targets as he did carries versus Seattle in Week 3.
Both teams have topped the total in their past two outings and it won’t stop come Sunday. Buckle up.
PREDICTION: Over 55.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
Beckham Jr. has history with the Cowboys.
As a member of the New York Giants, the always-brash receiver totaled 477 yards through the air and five touchdowns in seven career games versus Big D, for an average of more than 68 receiving yards per contest. And we can’t forget that bonkers one-handed grab versus Dallas back in November 2014.
OBJ has been quiet in 2020 so far, getting more props for his budding online streaming career than for his production on the field. Through three games, Beckham Jr. has been targeted 22 times and reeled in just 11 of those passes for 155 yards and one touchdown.
He says he’s cool with the Browns’ run-heavy playbook under new head coach Kevin Stefanski, but Cleveland will want to keep him happy and this Dallas secondary is its best chance to do so. You can see it now: Odell hauling in a rocket launcher from Baker for a deep TD strike and an oh-too-familiar celebration on the star.
PREDICTION: Odell Beckham Jr. touchdown score anytime (+141)
Browns vs Cowboys betting card
- Cleveland +4.5 (-110)
- Over 55.5 (-110)
- Odell Beckham Jr. touchdown score anytime (+141)
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