For the first time since the 2019 Formula 1 season, we’re going racing at Albert Park in Melbourne on Sunday as the Australian Grand Prix returns to the calendar.
Plenty has changed since the last race here and not just the grid. Previously seen as one of the sport’s most difficult circuits for overtaking, four of the circuit's 16 corners have been widened by as large as 7.5 metres in an effort to increase overtaking opportunities. Yet, despite what has been traditionally a place of few overtakes, the pole sitter has only taken victory here once in the last decade.
How does that bode for Australian Grand Prix odds favorite Charles Leclerc? We’ll break it all down for you in our F1 betting picks and predictions for the Australian Grand Prix.
Australian Grand Prix picks and predictions
Post-qualifying picks
Picks made on 4/9/2022 at 5:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Australian GP picks (post-qualifying)
Race winner
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, after backing Max Verstappen to capitalize on Red Bull’s long-run pace at the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, we again like the defending champion to win here after qualifying in second.
The battle between Verstappen and Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc should be closely similar to the one we were treated to in Jeddah, with Verstappen holding an advantage in the circuit’s rapid first and second sectors and Leclerc fighting back in the Ferrari-favoring third sector. And like in Jeddah, the start/finish and back straights make up so much of what matters, which bodes well for Verstappen.
The changes to Albert Park should work in Red Bull’s favor, too, with a chicane at turns nine and 10 reconfigured to be more flowing and only four braking zones across the full lap.
Even the final sector didn't exactly prove to be a major disadvantage to Verstappen, with car No. 1 going quickest there during his final qualifying run prior to Leclerc's pole lap.
During Friday’s practice sessions, the Red Bull car was hitting a top speed nearly 20 kilometers per hour quicker than that of Ferrari’s along the back straight, with the latter noticeably struggling with porpoising for the first time this season.
It was Leclerc and Ferrari finding the single-lap pace in free practice and qualifying but just like in Jeddah, Red Bull’s superior long-run pace has been acknowledged throughout the weekend — including by Leclerc himself.
Even amid several down seasons for Ferrari, Leclerc proved to be among the grid’s best qualifiers, capable of putting together phenomenal single laps right on the edge. That’s continued into this season in an ultra-competitive car but Verstappen’s race pace is unquestioned.
We saw that play out during the previous race in Jeddah and we will see it again in Melbourne, with Verstappen continuing the Aussie trend of knocking Saturday’s pole-sitter off the top of the charts on race day.
Pick: Max Verstappen (+162 at Bet365)
Team points
It was a brutally frustrating Q3 for Ferrari’s Carlos Sainz, as his best lap of the session was spoiled by a red flag mere moments before he was to cross the line and post his time. Then, during his final run after the session reset, he ran slightly wide to qualify ninth despite spending the entire weekend up to then in the Top 4.
Sainz’s qualifying position will surely have an effect on the Constructors’ Championship, with both Red Bull and Mercedes set to capitalize, and it also leaves us with a chance at value in the betting market.
With Leclerc starting first and Sainz in ninth, Ferrari is -120 to take the most points from Sunday’s race — priced the same as Red Bull, who will have its drivers starting second (Verstappen) and third (Sergio Perez). So, it’s really just a numbers game here.
Outside of the Ferraris, no other team should challenge Red Bull’s pace during the race, meaning at worst it will be in line for second-and third-place finishes. That would be a points total of 33 points, with 18 points for second and 15 for third.
In the event Leclerc hangs on to win, he would take 26 (plus the potential for one more for the fastest lap) but that would still require Sainz to get all the way up to seventh — clearing both Mercedes’, among others — for Ferrari to take more points than Red Bull.
Ninth to seventh isn’t a huge jump but this is a circuit that’s averaged the third-fewest overtakes across the calendar over the last 10 races (28.1). Making the task even harder for Sainz is the field around him.
The entire Top 10 was tightly packed and competitive throughout Saturday’s qualifying and he’ll start alongside Fernando Alonso, who looked primed to challenge for a front-row spot before crashing in Q3 and is among the grid’s best drivers in terms of race craft.
It will be a major challenge for Sainz to pick up places during Sunday’s race and as a result, it is a tall task for Ferrari to leave Melbourne with more points than early season rivals Red Bull.
Pick: Most team points - Red Bull (-120 at Bet365)
