2024 Austrian Grand Prix 2024 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Max Takes Aim at Third Straight Win

Max Verstappen has won the Austrian GP four times while finishing second on two other occasions. It's one of his most automatic races. Yet, he only opened -200. After claiming the pole, though, his odds have gone to -500.

Shawn Wronka - Contributor at Covers.com
Shawn Wronka • Betting Analyst
Jun 29, 2024 • 16:05 ET • 4 min read
Max Verstappen Formula 1
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Max Verstappen has won back-to-back races and will look to take his fifth Austrian Grand Prix title on Sunday, June 30 at Red Bull Ring.

After months of very closely contested back-and-forths with Lando Norris, Verstappen put his foot down on Saturday with a dominant qualifying round, securing pole position after beating Norris by four-tenths of a second.

Can Verstappen string together a third straight win, or will Lando Norris answer back? Let's take a look at the post-qualifying F1 odds for the 2024 Austrian GP.

Austrian Grand Prix 2024 picks

Pre-practice leans

  • Verstappen to win - bet before qualifying
  • Norris to win - bet after qualifying
  • Leclerc to win - bet before qualifying

Post-qualifying picks

  • Verstappen to win
  • Leclerc to podium

Austrian Grand Prix 2024 odds

Driver Team Opening odds Post-qualifying
Max Verstappen Red Bull -200 -500
Lando Norris McLaren +285 +380
Charles Leclerc Ferrari +1,800 +4,000
Sergio Perez Red Bull +2,200 +10,000
Lewis Hamilton Mercedes +2,200 +3,500
George Russell Mercedes +2,200 +1,800
Oscar Piastri McLaren +2,500 +5,000
Carlos Sainz Ferrari +2,500 +3,500
Fernando Alonso  Aston Martin +15,000 +70,000
Pierre Gasly Alpine +25,000 +70,000
Esteban Ocon Alpine +25,000 +50,000
Lance Stroll Aston Martin +30,000 +80,000
Yuki Tsunoda RB +30,000 +70,000
Daniel Ricciardo RB +30,000 +70,000
Nico Hulkenberg Haas +40,000 +50,000
Kevin Magnussen Haas +40,000 +70,000
Alexander Albon Williams +40,000 +80,000
Valtteri Bottas Kick Sauber +50,000 +80,000
Guanyu Zhou Kick Sauber +50,000 +80,000
Logan Sargeant Williams +50,000 +80,000

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 6-29.

Austrian Grand Prix 2024 pre-qualifying favorites

Max Verstappen is the betting favorite once again, as he has been race-in and race-out throughout this year and last. While Verstappen is leading in points, he hasn't won three races in a row yet this year. In 2023, Verstappen rattled off 10 straight victories after alternating wins and second-place finishes over the first four races. He is still the dominant force in F1 but his grip is loosening.

Nevertheless, this is a race he has fared extremely well at over the years. Verstappen has won the Austrian GP four times and finished second twice in nine attempts. He finished eighth in his debut at the event in 2015 and was forced to retire from the other two. 

Charles Leclerc is the most recent driver other than Verstappen to win the Austrian GP, taking the checkered flag in 2022. He finished second at last year's race but is listed at 18/1. That's the third-shortest number but one that is considerably further away from Verstappen than Lando Norris.

No doubt, Norris has had better results than Leclerc at recent events, finishing in the Top 2 in five of his last six races, including his win at Miami. But Norris has topped out at third in the Austrian GP (still great!) and finished fourth last year after a seventh-place outing in 2022.

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Austrian Grand Prix pre-practice leans

Max Verstappen to win (-170 at FanDuel)

Despite a win last week and prevailing in four of the last six races at the Austrian Grand Prix, Verstappen actually opens at the same odds as last week.

The continued threat of Lando Norris continues to keep Verstappen and his odds modest, as Norris was at least able to steal away the qualification win last Saturday. This also comes even though Verstappen has now won seven of this year's 10 races.

Nevertheless, between his winning ways as of late (narrow or not) and his history at the Red Bull Ring, Verstappen is worth a stab before Saturday's qualification round gets underway.

Lean: Bet prior to qualifying.

Lando Norris to win (+300 at bet365)

Norris finished last week's race just two seconds behind Verstappen after securing pole position the day before, and while his track history here is not as decorated as Verstappen's, it is still most certainly notable.

Even in his early years, Norris was posting better-than-usual results in Austria. He took sixth in his first race here in 2019, then improved to third the following year, securing the first podium of his career.

2023 brought a rocky start for Norris, placing 13th or worse in half of the first eight races, but the McLaren driver still managed to finish fourth in that year's Austria Grand Prix.

Norris has also been Verstappen's biggest competitor down the latest stretch, decisively beating Mad Max in Miami and narrowly losing three other races by a combined seven seconds.

Regardless, Norris has to essentially secure pole position for his pre-qualification odds to be worth backing. If he takes third position or worse on Saturday, these odds should be better.

Lean: Bet after qualification if his odds get longer or remain the same.

Charles Leclerc to win (+1,800 at FanDuel)

These odds are quite steep, considering Leclerc was the only driver to cleanly beat Verstappen in the Austrian Grand Prix spanning the last six years.

2022 was Charles Leclerc's year before his management and car failed him, winning two of that year's first three races and leading the Drivers' standing for the first two months. But then the troubles began to arise, and Leclerc's season was derailed before he pulled together a rather impressive win in that year's Austrian Grand Prix.

Last year, Leclerc showcased his comfort in Austria by finishing second, just five seconds behind Verstappen — a near miracle in a season where Verstappen was regularly winning by over 20+ seconds.

Leclerc is coming off of a disappointing fifth-place finish in Spain, but Austria may provide a level of comfort he needs to bounce back. Although Norris has been much better this season, Leclerc is a better pre-qualification value proposition.

Lean: Bet prior to qualification

Austrian Grand Prix 2024 post-qualifying picks

Max Verstappen to win (-500 at FanDuel)

So far, this race weekend has been aces for Verstappen, who took first in the sprint shootout and sprint race, and now has pole position heading into Sunday.

The massive shortening of his odds is arguably justified after he not only won Saturday's qualification round but did so in the most convincing fashion, boasting a +0.404 margin. In fact, the gap between Verstappen's time and Norris' runner-up time was as large as the one between Norris and the ninth-best time posted by Sergio Perez.

Verstappen not only has prior track history here (winner of four of the last six races at Red Bull Ring), but he has also been in top form recently, prevailing in both Montreal and Barcelona. 

Charles Leclerc to podium (+1,800 at FanDuel)

Charles Leclerc did not have the greatest of showings on Saturday, finishing seventh in the sprint race and securing just sixth position in the qualification round.

However, Leclerc has unignorable results in Austria that suggest he could still climb a measly three spots to make it onto the podium on Sunday. 

Just last year, Leclerc finished runner-up by five seconds to Verstappen in a year where Mad Max was regularly pulling away by 15-20+ seconds. Additionally, in 2022, Leclerc beat Verstappen outright despite Verstappen starting in pole position. 

LeClerc has also podiumed in half of this year's races, as well as in three of the last five — including his double-result win in Monaco three races ago. He sustained some damage to the underside of his car during the final lap of Saturday's qualifying round after running wide on Turn 8, which caused his sixth position showing. Yet, despite the rather large mishap, he finished just +0.204 behind George Russell, who placed third.

If Leclerc can straighten out both his car and his mistakes, he should be able to close that gap more often than the +1,800 odds suggest.

Austrian Grand Prix 2024 starting grid

Position Driver Position Driver
1 Max Verstappen 2 Lando Norris
3 George Russell 4 Carlos Sainz
5 Lewis Hamilton 6 Charles Leclerc
7 Oscar Piastri 8 Sergio Perez
9 Nico Hulkenberg 10 Esteban Ocon
11 Daniel Ricciardo 12 Kevin Magnussen
13 Pierre Gasly 14 Yuki Tsunoda
15 Fernando Alonso 16 Alexander Albon
17 Lance Stroll 18 Valtteri Bottas
19 Logan Sargeant 20 Guanyu Zhou

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Previous Austrian Grand Prix winners

Year Driver Team
2023 Max Verstappen Red Bull
2022 Charles Leclerc Ferrari
2021 Max Verstappen Red Bull
2020 Valtteri Bottas Mercedes
2019 Max Verstappen Red Bull
2018 Max Verstappen Red Bull
2017 Valtteri Bottas Mercedes
2016 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes
2015 Nico Rosberg Mercedes
2014 Nico Rosberg Mercedes

Understanding F1 betting odds

The most popular way to bet on Formula 1 odds is by simply picking the winner of a particular race. Other popular F1 betting options include which car/constructor will win and whether or not a particular race car driver will end up on the podium with a Top-3 finish.

F1 race odds usually look like this:

  • Sergio Perez +1,400

This means that on a $100 bet, you'll stand to profit $1,400 if Perez wins that particular race. If one driver is especially dominant, you might see a minus sign (-) ahead of that driver's odds like this:

  • Max Verstappen -120

This means that you would need to bet $120 to win $100 on Verstappen winning the race.

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Shawn Wronka - Covers
Betting Analyst

Shawn Wronka is an analytics-based sports bettor who was drawn to analytics at an early age via the stats on the back of sports cards. He began sports betting in 2016, and took an immediate interest in UFC before finding his way towards other major sports.

After years of casual betting, he took an interest in the numbers-based approach and specialized in learning and applying those techniques to niche markets such as player props, the NFL and NBA drafts, and F1. Shawn finds writing a good way to balance the time he spends on numbers, giving him an outlet to paint quantitative edges into qualitative narratives.

A graduate of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, his work has been seen in dozens of publications including the National Post, Financial Post, Calgary Herald, Vancouver Sun, and The Province.

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