NASCAR Goodyear 400 Predictions, Odds & Race Preview — Darlington Raceway

It's NASCAR Throwback Weekend at Darlington Raceway, and that means some funky paint schemes as well as some great racing action to wager on this Sunday, April 6.

"The Track Too Tough to Tame" tends to favor NASCAR Cup Series drivers with lots of experience over the 1 3/8-mile oval, but we've seen relative youngsters spring upsets here in recent years. 

Read our free betting picks and race analysis to see how Sunday's action at "The Lady in Black" will shake out.

Odds to win 2025 Goodyear 400

Driver
Kyle Larson	+400
William Byron	+550
Ryan Blaney	+650
Tyler Reddick	+700
Denny Hamlin	+800
Brad Keselowski	+1500
Kyle Busch	+1500
Christopher Bell	+1600
Chase Elliott	+1800
Ryan Preece	+1800
Chase Briscoe	+2000
Josh Berry	+2000
Joey Logano	+2200
Bubba Wallace	+2200
Ross Chastain	+2500
Austin Cindric	+2500
Alex Bowman	+3000
Carson Hocevar	+3500
Chris Buescher	+3500
Ty Gibbs	+4500

Odds as of 4-6.

Goodyear 400 field

The 36 chartered cars are all entered for the Goodyear 400. Austin Hill is up from the Xfinity Series to drive the No. 33 Chevrolet while J.J. Yeley pilots the No. 44 Chevrolet, making it a field of 38.

Kyle Larson opened as the +450 betting favorite, and he won the Southern 500 at Darlington in 2023, one of seven Top 5s here from 14 starts. Tyler Reddick, the only driver in the field with more than two Top 5s here in his last six tries (three), opened as the second-choice at +650. Ryan Blaney, who has demonstrated solid speed all season while failing to win a race, is tied with last week's winner — Denny Hamlin — at +700 for third-choice status.

Defending Goodyear 400 winner Brad Keselowski was available at a fat +2800 as of Wednesday, with 2024 Southern 500 champ Chase Briscoe at +1500.

Goodyear 400 expert picks and predictions

Odds listed below courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of 4-5.

Goodyear 400 pre-qualifying favorites

Kyle Larson (+450)
Kyle Larson erased finishes of 36th, 12th and 20th to win the 2023 Southern 500. Last spring, Larson started 34th but climbed to the lead to earn a stage victory in the opening stage. He finished fifth in the second stage, but a crash relegated him to 34th. He started and finished fourth in last year’s Southern 500, but that doesn’t tell the whole story with Larson sweeping the stages and leading 263 of 367 laps. 

Denny Hamlin (+700)
Denny Hamlin led 177 laps and swept both stages in the 2023 Southern 500. An issue relegated him to 25th. Hamlin rebounded to finish fourth in the spring race for his fourth Top-5 finish — including a pair of Top-2s — since 2021. He finished seventh in the Southern 500 last fall. He’s a four-time Darlington winner and has four runners-up there, as well as 18 overall Top-10 finishes in 25 starts with 1,000 laps led. 

William Byron (+900)
William Byron has six Top-8 finishes in his last nine Darlington tries, with four of those six in the Top-5. He was fourth in the 2023 Southern 500 and sixth in the spring race last year. 

Goodyear 400 sleepers

Chase Briscoe (+1500)
Chase Briscoe won last year’s Southern 500 and has typically been fast at Darlington. 

Bubba Wallace (+1600)
Bubba Wallace has vastly improved at Darlington. Wallace went from no Top-15 finishes in eight starts to being ninth, fifth, seventh, seventh. and 16th, respectively, in his last five. 

Chris Buescher (+2200)
A great driver to manage tires. Chris Buescher has five Top-10 finishes in his last eight Darlington tries, including a third and sixth-place finish the last two Southern 500s. If not for late-race contact with Tyler Reddick while battling for the lead last spring, Buescher, not Keselowski, would have won.

Brad Keselowski (+2800)
Brad Keselowski has five Top-7 finishes in his last seven tries, including results of fourth and sixth in 2023 and a spring race victory last year after leading for 37 laps.

Goodyear 400 fades

Ryan Blaney (+700)
Not a strong suit for him with just two Top-10 finishes in 15 tries. While Ryan Blaney was ninth in both races in 2023, I’d fade him. He finished last in both races a year ago.

Christopher Bell (+1000)
He’s had three Top-3 starting spots in the last six Darlington tries. Christopher Bell has led 44 combined laps and has a best finish of third in this span. Last year, he finished 14th and 23rd, respectively. He was 13th last spring and third in the fall.

Joey Logano (+1500)
Joey Logano was great here in 2022 with finishes of first and fourth. Since? 18th, 12th, 21st, and eighth with no laps led.

Ross Chastain (+1800)
Ross Chastain leads a lot of laps at Darlington but also has a lot of crashes. He led 26 laps but crashed (30th place) in 2022, was 20th in the 2022 Southern 500, and crashed while battling for the win in the 2023 spring race again as well (29th). That’s why, despite being fifth in the last two Southern 500s, I’d fade. He finished 11th in the spring race last season. 

Goodyear 400 prop pick: Tyler Reddick Top-3 Finish

This track was made for Tyler Reddick (+650 outright), running the high line right up against the wall. Reddick has three Top-3 finishes in his last six tries, including leading 90 laps in the 2023 Southern 500 and finishing runner-up. He had a Top-2 car in the spring race but contact with Buescher while battling for the win kept him out of victory lane. He finished 10th in the Southern 500. 

Pick: Tyler Reddick Top-3 Finish (+180 at DraftKings)

Goodyear 400 betting splits

Highest Ticket%

Kyle Larson 7.3%
Joey Logano 6.3%
William Byron 6.2%

Highest Handle%

Kyle Larson 9.24%
Joey Logano 9.19%
Denny Hamlin 8.9%

Biggest Liabilities

Joey Logano
Erik Jones
Kyle Busch

All data per BetMGM.

Darlington Raceway track analysis

Darlington is an older surface where you have to tip-toe around the track rather than go all out every lap. While I get these types of races aren’t for everybody, this is what makes racing fun.

There’s a reason why veterans win this race on a nuanced and seasoned track; six of the last 11 here were won by drivers in their 40s. In 2023, we witnessed William Byron and Kyle Larson win. While they’re both on the younger end of the scale, Larson is in his 30s and has been racing for a decade in Cup. Byron is already in his sixth season. 

Brad Keselowski, last spring’s race winner, is 40 while 2024 Southern 500 winner Chase Briscoe is 30 and spent four full-time seasons in the cup Series. 

Cautions are typically limited and teams have to try out different strategies, which is why managing tire wear is crucial. This isn’t the typical new-school race where drivers are all bunched up in the end and can just plow over cars to get by. It’s going to be spread out and technical. 

That sets up varying strategies on when to pit. Fresh tires can gain a ton of ground and speed on those going around the track on old sets of Goodyears. However, eventually, the new tires fade and those on old tires will pit for new and gain the advantage. Whoever can work this game the best usually wins, and usually it’s a veteran who manages his tires over the run to limit the fall off.

Goodyear 400 trends

• Six of the last eight Darlington race winners started in the Top 5, after just twice in the previous 17. The pole-sitter has won just twice since the 1997 Southern 500 (41 races).
• Every race winner at Darlington during the stage era has scored stage points. What’s odd is that the race winner at Darlington has never won a stage, either.
• Ford ended Chevrolet’s streak of three consecutive Darlington race victories by sweeping the two races. Those three wins are Chevy’s only wins at the track since 2015. Toyota swept the pair of 2021 races. 

Goodyear 400 info

Previous Goodyear 400 winners

How to make Goodyear 400 picks

NASCAR betting is a nuanced process that can take any number of factors into account, and spans several different types of bets. Fortunately, our How to Bet NASCAR guide walks you through the basics, including how to read odds, different markets that are available, and what to consider when making your bets. 

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