The NASCAR drivers are taking their talents to Talladega Superspeedway in Lincoln, AL this Sunday at 3:00 p.m. ET on FOX for what I anticipate to be one of the season's biggest races to date.
As the early pre-qualifying odds indicate, the Jack Link’s 500 looks to be wide open. The favorite, Ryan Blaney, is being offered up at +1000, which is a pretty big number for the NASCAR Cup Series.
While everyone will be touting the big dawgs like the Blaneys and Larsons of the world, I'd like to highlight Bubba Wallace, who's been flying under the radar despite putting up some solid performances this season.
All that and more in my free betting picks below 👇
NASCAR prop picks for Jack Link’s 500
- Top 10 finish: Bubba Wallace (+100)
- Top 5 finish: Brad Keselowski (+190)
- AI prop pick: Kyle Larson to finish in the Top 5 (+260)
NASCAR Jack Link’s 500 props and best bets
Top 10 Finish: Bubba Wallace (+100 at bet365)
My guy Bubba Wallace has been on fire, recording career highs across the board. Wallace is currently ranked eighth in the standings with three Top 10s and two Top 3s, including a recent third-place finish at Homestead-Miami, where he led 56 laps.
His average start (10.7) and average running position (11.1) are both career-highs. Wallace also ranks third in average running position this season, behind only William Byron and Tyler Reddick, and has led 5.4% of all laps — another personal best.
Guess what? Wallace has also had success at Talladega.
In fact, he won his first Cup Series race at the track in 2021. The haters will say he won it due to a rainout. To those people, I say: Who cares? He put himself in a good position, and it paid off. Give the man his flowers.
Here's the icing on the cake (or the nail in the coffin for the haters): Wallace finished ninth in his last race at Talladega in October 2024.
I'd reckon Wallace is cocked, locked, and ready to rock for the 2025 Jack Link’s 500. It wouldn't be out of the question to see him finish in the Top 3, but due to the unpredictability of tracks like Talladega, I’ll back him to finish within the Top 10.
I have this priced closer to -130, so getting +100 is more than a solid +EV play.
Top 5 Finish: Brad Keselowski (+190 at bet365)
Okay, I know what you're thinking: "I haven't seen Brad Keselowski’s name in the Top 5 of a Cup Series race chart since Nick Saban was the head coach of the Crimson Tide. You've got to be bonkers to back this. Keselowski is a bum!"
I understand the sentiment against such picks, but you've gotta hear me out on this one.
Keselowski is the winningest active driver at Talladega, with six career Cup Series wins at the track, tied for second all-time with Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jeff Gordon. He has 13 Top 10 finishes in 26 Talladega starts, meaning he finishes in the Top 10 half the time he races there.
If you get past recency bias and flash back to 2024, Keselowski finished runner-up in both Talladega Cup Series events.
Talladega is to NASCAR what Saratoga Race Course is to horse racing — "the graveyard of champions." Some of NASCAR’s best drivers, including Richard Petty, have had god-awful performances in the state of Alabama. So, it’s highly uncommon to see guys like Keselowski have consistent success at the track.
While Keselowski has been terrible this season, getting +190 for him to finish in the Top 5 is a bargain considering his track record.
🤖 NASCAR AI prop pick: Kyle Larson to finish in the Top 5 (+260 at bet365)
We turned to ChatGPT to discover its favorite prop pick for this weekend's race, and the chatbot want-to-be sentient AI overload chose Kyle Larson to finish in the Top 5. Here is its reasoning for backing NASCAR's "golden boy" to thrive at Talladega:
Larson is coming off a hot streak, including a recent win at Bristol, and has the most Cup Series victories since 2021.
He finished fourth in his last Talladega start (2024 YellaWood 500), showing he can run well at superspeedways.
The SportsLine projection model, which has nailed 20 winners since 2021, specifically highlights Larson’s top-five prop at +260 as a strong value, noting his 44.7% top-five rate over the last five seasons, much higher than the implied odds.
Talladega is unpredictable, but Larson’s consistency and current form make this prop a smart, data-backed play for tomorrow’s race.
Not intended for use in MA.
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