The Formula 1 season kicked off last year with a thrilling Bahrain Grand Prix, with Max Verstappen fighting Lewis Hamilton all the way to the end of the race, albeit ultimately unsuccessfully. That ended up being a sign of what was to come, with last season delivering a title fight for the ages.
We're back in Bahrain to start the 2022 season and one can only hope it delivers the type of excitement and drama last year brought. While Verstappen will defend his title fiercely, he may have different drivers in pursuit with his rival Hamilton a distant fourth in the Bahrain Grand Prix odds.
We'll take a look at the field and dig up some F1 betting value with our Bahrain Grand Prix picks and predictions.
Bahrain Grand Prix picks and predictions
Pre-qualifying
Post-qualifying
Picks made on 3/18/2022 at 5:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Bahrain Grand Prix predictions (pre-qualifying)
Qualifying match pick
Haas had put all its development resources last year, when it finished last with zero points, toward the 2022 car but even with that in mind, it's been an encouraging preseason. The team was able to drop the talentless Nikita Mazepin in favor of its former driver Kevin Magnussen, giving it a proven quantity after spending 2021 with two rookies. Magnussen will now partner Mick Schumacher, who had some bright moments in a terrible car last year while absolutely dominating his teammate Mazepin.
On top of existing optimism around the state of the 2022 Haas, preseason has seen the two drivers put up some impressive times, while the Ferrari engine it uses has shined at the front with Ferrari itself around the top of every session so far.
The hype around Haas after two awful years has left most Magnussen or Schumacher props without value (the two are +137 and +120 to score points after the team scored three points total across the previous two seasons). We will, however, be looking at the pair against one another in qualifying and taking the underdog Magnussen.
This isn't an indictment of Schumacher, who out-qualified Mazepin 19-0 last year by an average margin of nearly a full second and won F2 two years ago. Rather, this is backing a vastly experienced driver in Magnussen to outperform his very green teammate in a one-lap setting. Schumacher's talent is obvious but his place, on merit, in F1 is still yet to be proven after one season dragging around an awful car. Magnussen, in comparison, is a driver with 119 starts and 34 points finishes.
Schumacher could continue what has been a steady progression over several years this season and beat his talented, experienced teammate, but in their first race against one another, I'm happy to back a proven commodity.
Pick: Kevin Magnussen to out-qualify Mick Schumacher (+110)
Top-6 finish pick
The 2022 season is the first with new regulations, meaning this weekend will be more or less the first look at these cars, with very little carryover from previous seasons. Without much evidence of where cars struggle and where they perform well, leaning on one of the grid's most reliable drivers is a welcome play.
Outside of the grid's best drivers, it doesn't get more reliable than AlphaTauri's Pierre Gasly. The French driver was among the best performers in 2021, qualifying in the Top 6 16 times and finishing in the Top 6 eight times in 22 races, despite AlphaTauri finishing sixth out of 10 in the Constructors' Championship.
Gasly is primed to continue that good form into 2022, as he continues to build a rock-solid case to be in a big team — Red Bull or otherwise — in the near future. Gasly was quickest in FP1 on Friday (albeit running soft tires while second, third, and fifth-fastest did not) and topped one of the testing sessions earlier this month on the same circuit.
In a fairly uncertain Grand Prix weekend, Gasly has another thing going for him — the Red Bull-powered engine, which has looked race-ready for both Red Bull and its sister team AlphaTauri throughout the lead-up to the first race.
At +200 to finish in the Top 6, with plenty of uncertainty around Gasly on the grid, the Frenchman presents great value.
Pick: Pierre Gasly Top-6 finish (+200)
Podium finish pick
There's reason for pause when looking to Mercedes out of the gate this season. The shakedown in Barcelona and testing in Bahrain didn't exactly inspire confidence. Toto Wolff and Lewis Hamilton have done their best to play down expectations. Free practice on Friday was rough — the porpoising effect was very obvious and the car wasn't coming out of corners cleanly — as Hamilton finished FP1 seventh and FP2 ninth.
Yet, +200 for Hamilton to finish on the podium is far too good of a price to pass up. Hamilton was having issues with his rear wing not opening in FP2, which led to a severe loss of time in the straights. That issue will be corrected by qualifying and his pace will be improved considerably as a result.
Not to mention, Mercedes has a history of sandbagging ahead of the first race and downplaying its car — including last year, when Merc ended up winning the Constructors' Championship while Hamilton entered the final race tied for the championship lead. Other teams indicated in testing they could see quite clearly that Mercedes wasn't using full power in parts of the track.
Back Hamilton to stand on the podium and by doing so, back two of F1's most reliable things — Lewis Hamilton, and Mercedes' preseason concerns immediately being proven wrong.
Pick: Lewis Hamilton podium finish (+200)
Bahrain Grand Prix picks (post-qualifying)
First lap leader pick
In all likelihood, pole-sitter Charles Leclerc will maintain his spot at the front of the grid through the first lap — but the odds don't reflect how tight it will be, with Leclerc -275 to be leading after one lap while Verstappen, on the front row next to him, is at +200.
The pair have combined to dominate timesheets so far this weekend. Leclerc topped Q3, to take pole, as well as Q1 while Verstappen was quickest in Q2, FP2, and FP3. Both cars, early on, appear to have the combination of downforce in tight corners and engine power in the straights to win at a well-rounded Bahrain International Circuit.
It's a long enough run to the first turn from the starting line that Verstappen could absolutely overtake Leclerc for the race lead by then — and if the pair are side by side, look out, as they have a long-standing rivalry and are two of the most aggressive and bold wheel-to-wheel drivers on the grid.
Leclerc and Ferrari have looked so good this weekend that he may retain the race lead and could very well lead wire-to-wire to take the first race but his price of -275, compared to Verstappen at +200, makes it worth taking a flier on the champion.
Pick: Max Verstappen race leader after first lap (+200)
Podium combination pick
The above pick is a bit of a flier and one that would pay off immediately if at all. We're going to do the opposite with the second pick and look at what should be a surefire bet to pay off at the end of the race: Verstappen and Leclerc on the podium together.
As mentioned, the two young stars have completely owned the timing sheets throughout the weekend, with either Verstappen or Leclerc topping five of six sessions. They're both their team's No. 1 driver and will start the race ahead of their respective teammates.
Really, the only plausible way Verstappen and Leclerc do not end up on the podium together is if they take one another out. Which isn't completely out of the realm of possibility.
Pick: Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc podium (-150)
