Max Verstappen has lost four of his last seven races, and after the McLaren duo of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri locked up the first and second position in the qualifying round, Verstappen is no longer the favorite to win Sunday's race.
Can Verstappen pull out the win from the third position? Or will Norris secure the second win of his season and career on Sunday, July 21?
Keep reading for our Hungarian Grand Prix free betting picks and F1 odds below.
Hungarian Grand Prix 2024 picks
Pre-practice leans
- Verstappen to win — bet post-qualification
- Hamilton to win — stay away
- Norris to win — bet post-qualification if not on pole
Post-qualifying picks
After several seasons of unwavering dominance, Verstappen has had his fair share of struggles this season. But most of those struggles have been concentrated in the past two months, as Verstappen has failed to win in four of the last seven races after winning four of the first five.
The good news for Verstappen — despite his third position finish in Saturday's qualifying round behind the McLaren teammates — is the Hungarian Grand Prix has been the location of back-to-back wins, and both have come from outside pole position.
Last year he won from the second position by a whopping 33 seconds. In 2022 he won from the 10th position, and added to that masterclass, winning by eight seconds on top of that.
In fact, Verstappen's performance on Saturday should not have been as big a surprise as the odds change suggested. He’s taken pole position just once in his nine races here, yet he moved from the +100 favorite to the +200 runner-up in odds after Saturday's results.
That was entirely anticipated on our end, as we suggested that it was actually better to wait until after qualification to bet Verstappen, despite his pre-qualifying odds of +100 being his second-longest opening odds of the season.
And now that the desired results have come in, it’s time to capitalize.
Prediction: Max Verstappen to win (+200 at FanDuel)
Hungarian Grand Prix 2024 odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 7-20.
| Name | Opening odds | Post-qualifying |
|---|---|---|
 Oscar Piastri |
+1,400 | +600 |
 Lewis Hamilton |
+800 | +2,500 |
 Carlos Sainz |
+2,800 | +4,000 |
| Charles Leclerc |
+2,500 | +6,500 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 7-20.
| Name | Opening odds | Post-qualifying |
|---|---|---|
| George Russell |
+800 | +13,000 |
 Sergio Perez |
+8,000 | +20,000 |
 Lance Stroll |
+40,000 | +20,000 |
| Fernando Alonso |
+30,000 | +20,000 |
 Yuki Tsunoda |
+40,000 | +30,000 |
| Daniel Ricciardo |
+40,000 | +30,000 |
 Nico Hulkenberg |
+30,000 | +50,000 |
 Alexander Albon |
+40,000 | +50,000 |
 Valtteri Bottas |
+50,000 | +60,000 |
| Logan Sargeant |
+50,000 | +60,000 |
| Kevin Magnussen |
+40,000 | +60,000 |
 Pierre Gasly |
+40,000 | +70,000 |
| Guanyu Zhou |
+50,000 | +70,000 |
| Esteban Ocon |
+40,000 | +70,000 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 7-20.
Hungarian Grand Prix 2024 pre-qualifying favorites
Lewis Hamilton finally got back in the winner's circle after last claiming victory at the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix in December 2021. It also marked just his second podium appearance of 2024 after finishing third at the Spanish GP. Despite his fall from grace atop F1's hierarchy, Hamilton — a record eight-time winner in Hungary — has maintained solid results at the Hugaroring. Last year's fourth-place result was his worst at the event since 2017 (also fourth), so will his momentum carry him forward?
The odds are kinder to Hamilton than they have been, listing him at 8/1, even with Mercedes teammate George Russell, who was forced to retire in Britain due to a water leak. Not a great follow-up to his second F1 victory. Nevertheless, he has reached the podium in Hungary, finishing third in 2022. With Mercedes suddenly surging with back-to-back tournament wins, increased parity is seemingly more of a reality every week.
Max Verstappen has lost consecutive races for the first time since 2022 and both stretches came between the British and Austrian Grands Prix. The last time he went three straight races without a win was when he finished second in the 2021 Sao Paolo, Qatar, and Saudi Arabian Grands Prix. He's the favorite at -150, but it is increasingly more of a formality as he is no longer a lock to reach the winner's circle. Still, we're not ready to write him off, either, as he still holds a commanding lead over Lando Norris in the standings and it's worth remembering that he has seven wins in 2024 while no other driver has more than one.
McLaren's Lando Norris is second on the odds board as he is among those rivals with a victory but he also has the second-most podium finishes behind Verstappen with seven. And while he hasn't won again since Miami, he has reached the podium in four of six races in that stretch. Teammate Oscar Piastri is positioned outside the top favorites but ahead of the Ferrari duo of Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc, both of whom have won races in 2024. Piastri has a pair of second-place finishes in 2024 and has wound up between fourth and eighth in nine of his other 10 events (a stray 13th in Miami representing the other).
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Hungarian Grand Prix pre-practice leans
Max Verstappen to win (+100 at BetMGM)
This marks just the second time this season that Max Verstappen has opened at plus-money odds to win a race, with the other instance being the season-opening Bahrain Grand Prix — a market likely heavily influenced by optimism that parity would come to the grid in the new 2024 season.
While winning four of the season's first five races, Verstappen's opening odds race-to-race began to creep towards last year's opening odds range of -300 and shorter, but he's now failed to win four of the previous seven races (including the last two) and his odds are now even with the rest of the grid.
However, this week brings the Hungarian Grand Prix, a race he's the back-to-back winner of. In last year's edition, he not only won the race from the second position but he also went on to win by 33 seconds. And in 2022, he won by eight seconds from the 10th position.
One thing you may notice in those performances is that he didn't start in pole position. In fact, in his nine races here, he's managed to take first in qualification just once. For that reason, it may be best to wait until after qualification, or at the very least split your wagers between pre- and post-qualification.
Lean: Bet following qualification, or split bet between before and after qualification.
Lewis Hamilton to win (+800 at DraftKings)
Lewis Hamilton stunned many with his British GP win last time out, securing his first win since the 2021 season and his first in 37 races, but the British Grand Prix has arguably been his strongest race, finding ways to the podium in recent years despite his decline relative to his dominant run as the sport's best.
The Hungarian GP is not the same for Hamilton, as while he still has a storied history here, it's anchored by the results he had accumulated before his decline from the top in 2021. He did secure pole position here last year, but he managed to only convert that into a fourth-place finish behind the likes of Verstappen, Lando Norris, and Sergio Perez.
Again, not to take away from his electrifying win last week, but Hamilton does not belong tied for the third-best odds in the outright markets for this race.
Lean: Stay away entirely.
Lando Norris to win (+350 at DraftKings)
Lando Norris has had quite the follow-up to his breakout in the latter half of last season, having reached the podium in seven of this year's 12 races and six of the last eight — including a win in Miami.
Like many other tracks, Norris hasn't racked up an extensive track history in Hungary just based on how early in his career he is. However, he did rack up a second-place finish from the third position in last year's race, which was good for just his fourth podium finish in his career at the time before he began rattling them off late last year.
He is indeed the best threat to Verstappen this weekend but his +350 odds may be a bit too short to warrant a pre-qualification wager. If he fails to secure pole position (and especially if he can't secure runner-up either), his markets would definitely be worth taking a shot on.
Lean: Bet post-qualification if he fails to secure pole position.
Hungarian Grand Prix 2024 post-qualifying picks
Our post-qualifying picks and starting grid will come after Saturday's qualifying session is complete.
Hungarian Grand Prix 2024 starting grid
| Position | Driver | Position | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lando Norris |
2 | Oscar Piastri |
| 3 | Max Verstappen |
4 | Carlos Sainz |
| 5 | Lewis Hamilton |
6 | Charles Leclerc |
| 7 | Fernando Alonso |
8 | Lance Stroll |
| 9 | Daniel Ricciardo |
10 | Yuki Tsunoda |
| 11 | Nico Hulkenberg |
12 | Valtteri Bottas |
| 13 | Alexander Albon |
14 | Logan Sargeant |
| 15 | Kevin Magnussen |
16 | Sergio Perez |
| 17 | George Russell |
18 | Guanyu Zhou |
| 19 | Esteban Ocon |
20 | Pierre Gasly |
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Previous Hungarian Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull |
| 2022 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull |
| 2021 | Esteban Ocon | Alpine-Renault |
| 2020 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2019 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2018 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2017 | Sebastian Vettel | Ferrari |
| 2016 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2015 | Sebastian Vettel | Ferrari |
| 2014 | Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull-Renault |
Understanding F1 betting odds
The most popular way to bet on Formula 1 odds is by simply picking the winner of a particular race. Other popular F1 betting options include which car/constructor will win and whether or not a particular race car driver will end up on the podium with a Top-3 finish.
F1 race odds usually look like this:
- Sergio Perez +1,400
This means that on a $100 bet, you'll stand to profit $1,400 if Perez wins that particular race. If one driver is especially dominant, you might see a minus sign (-) ahead of that driver's odds like this:
- Max Verstappen -120
This means that you would need to bet $120 to win $100 on Verstappen winning the race.
