Japanese Grand Prix Picks and Predictions: Title to Be Decided at Suzuka

One of F1's greatest venues will make its triumphant return to the calendar this weekend, as the Japanese Grand Prix at Suzuka takes place for the first time since 2019.

An iconic track that breeds thrilling racing, Suzuka doesn't need any help to be compelling but it's gotten it anyway this weekend. Red Bull's Max Verstappen — the Japanese Grand Prix odds favorite — is in a position to clinch the Drivers' Championship, at the home race of Honda — the de facto engine supplier of Red Bull. 

It's set up to be a weekend of celebration of Red Bull — but will that play out at the high-speed Suzuka? We break it all down for you in our Japanese Grand Prix picks and predictions. 

Japanese Grand Prix picks and predictions

Post-qualifying picks

• Alpine - More points than Mercedes (+175)
• Verstappen - Fastest lap and race winner (-110)

Picks made on 10/8/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.

Pre-qualifying predictions

• Red Bull - Both cars podium finish (+162)
• Alpine - Both cars points finish (+100)

Picks made on 10/7/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Japanese Grand Prix picks (post-qualifying)

Match bet pick

I entered the Japanese Grand Prix fully expecting Alpine to rebound from both cars retiring in Singapore last weekend. The French team has been, on balance, the fourth-best this year. 

The Suzuka Circuit was, on paper, perfect for it to have a strong weekend, too. This is one of the quickest tracks on the calendar, as far as the percentage of the lap spent on full throttle, and Alpine’s power unit is the second-most powerful on the grid this year behind Red Bull.

After backing Alpine to have both cars reach Q3 and taking both drivers, Esteban Ocon and Fernando Alonso, to finish in the Top 10 at +100 before qualifying — which is now -175 — I wanted to find another way to back the French team after an encouraging Saturday.  

At +175 to out-score Mercedes (-250) in the race, I’ve found just that. Beyond brand name doing heavy lifting, there isn’t really an explanation for the gap in implied probability between Mercedes (71%) and Alpine (36%) in head-to-head scoring in the race. 

Ahead of this weekend, Suzuka certainly looked more friendly to Alpine, which has had great success at high-speed tracks this year, than Mercedes, which suffers on long straights and makes up the most time in low-speed corners. 

In the four indicative sessions we’ve seen this weekend — the first two practices were wet whilst everything since has been dry — Alpine’s pair has roundly outperformed the Mercedes pair of Lewis Hamilton and George Russell. 

Looking at the individual sector times, it’s clear how much better suited to this track Alpine is than Mercedes, and the way in which the latter has to rely on the start of the lap to make up the pace deficit that comes on the straights. 

Here's how the teams ranked through each sector during qualifying for the 2022 #JapaneseGP! #F1 pic.twitter.com/ou3XOvSjWk

— Lights Out ????? (@LightsOutF1Blog) October 8, 2022

Now, despite Alpine’s better performance in qualifying, we’re looking at such a large gap in a head-to-head matchup in the race. No indication this season, or this weekend, gives us reason to expect Mercedes to be stronger here than Alpine. 

Not for nothing, should their respective drivers’ starting positions hold over the course of the race, Alpine would have Mercedes beat, 16-12. I trust Alpine to have a successful race day more than I trust Mercedes at this circuit. 

Pick: Alpine - More points than Mercedes (+175 at bet365)

Update 9:30 p.m. ET, 10/8: The forecast for Sunday at Suzuka changed locally overnight, with rain now forecast ahead of and during the race. A wet track will not only negate Alpine's speed advantage over Mercedes, but it will raise the importance of Mercedes' strong downforce. I would not recommend taking Alpine over Mercedes in this market anymore.

Fastest lap and race winner pick 

I thought there was a decent chance of Max Verstappen dominating the field in Japan to a similar degree as he did in Spa, where he won the race by 18 seconds — despite starting 14th. The Red Bull engine is so powerful, and Suzuka so quick, that such a race was absolutely in the cards.  

While qualifying was considerably more competitive than I expected, there has been info through the four indicative sessions to be very happy to take the soon-to-be champion to win the race and set the fastest lap at -110. 

Verstappen was quickest in FP3, the first dry session of the weekend, and nearly 0.3 seconds up on the next quickest. He was then quickest in Q1, again comfortably ahead of the Ferraris. Q2 saw him set the third-quickest time — while remaining in the garage for the final minutes while the other drivers around him, excluding the Ferraris, went out for a final fast lap.

Then, Verstappen did enough to take pole in Q3 despite again dealing with a troubled session, not dissimilar to last weekend. In fact, while Leclerc’s fastest time left him agonizingly close — 0.01 seconds — off pole, that can be taken as an encouraging sign for Verstappen. 

That’s because the Dutch driver’s pole lap was his first push lap in Q3, over 0.25 seconds quicker than Leclerc’s first run. Verstappen would then suffer damage and not improve throughout the session, while Leclerc was able to improve and give Verstappen his best shot — that was still not enough, even with a lucky break.    

In 11 wins this year, Verstappen has also set the fastest lap four times. With a win and fastest lap enough to secure the title, Red Bull at its engine supplier’s home track, and the circuit ideal for the car’s strengths, count on Verstappen to come away with a perfect 26 points again. 

Pick: Max Verstappen - Fastest lap and race winner (-110 at bet365)

Japanese GP predictions (pre-qualifying)

Double podium finish pick

It didn't factor into the Constructors' Championship, with Red Bull so far ahead by this stage, but the soon-to-be crowned champions had to navigate a brief spell after the summer break shorthanded. That was a result of a fairly drastic and sudden drop in form for its second driver, Sergio Perez.

The first signs came at the Belgian Grand Prix where, despite starting second compared to Max Verstappen's 14th, Perez finished second — 18 seconds behind the race winner, Verstappen. The next two races — both of which Verstappen won — saw Perez qualify and finish fifth in Zandvoort, then finish sixth from fourth in Monza.

Verstappen is widely seen as a transcendent talent but to be so far off the pace of his teammate, in the same car, was of great concern for Perez. It was welcome news, then, that Perez had been running a different floor to Verstappen since Spa — and that the old floor was reverted last week, when Perez qualified second and won the Singapore Grand Prix in decisive fashion.  

The news of Red Bull's failed floor upgrade came with further context — which serves as an encouraging sign for Perez and Red Bull this weekend. That pesky floor was run by both cars in Austria — the only high-speed race this season in which Ferrari has been outright quicker than Red Bull — and in France, where Ferrari's straight-line speed was uncharacteristically comparable to Red Bull's. 

On balance, in ideal circumstances, there isn't a car on the grid this year that can match what Red Bull has built. That balance has been restored to Perez's car, with the floor reverted, and the circumstances this week are perfect: Suzuka is an extremely high-speed circuit, with cars at full throttle for around 75% of the lap. 

Gone is the floor upgrade costing Perez severe pace, and gone is any excuse for Perez not to end up on the podium at a track that suits Red Bull. I am happily taking Perez to finish on the podium at +120 but also looking for a little more value in what should be a great weekend for the team, with a double podium priced at +162. 

Pick: Red Bull - Both cars podium finish (+162 at bet365)

Both cars points finish pick 

Last weekend could not have gone worse for Alpine in its fight for fourth in the Constructors' Championship. Both drivers, Esteban Ocon and Fernando Alonso, had to retire from the race while its rival in the fight, McLaren, capitalized on a series of retirements and errors to have both drivers finish in the Top 5.

That setback for Alpine should be brief, however, with it well set up to have a strong weekend at Suzuka. The Japanese circuit is among the highest-speed tracks in F1, and both the straights and high-speed corners play into the hands of Alpine — which has the second-quickest car in a straight line, behind Red Bull, on the grid this year.  

Alpine's power unit has shined repeatedly at high-speed tracks this year and delivered great results for the team as a result.

Among the nine double-points finishes for Alpine this season are the races in Bahrain, Baku, Montreal, Austria, France, and Spa, which are six of the quickest tracks on the calendar. Suzuka, too, would be grouped among those tracks — and will be after Sunday. 

Prior to a brutal string of luck that has seen three retirements in the past two races, Ocon and Alonso had both finished in the points in five straight races and in eight of the last 10. Few tracks suit Alpine, and as an extension Alonso and Ocon, like Suzuka. Count on the pair to again finish in the Top 10 on Sunday. 

Pick: Alpine - Both cars points finish (+100 at bet365)

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