The world-famous Monaco Grand Prix is always a spectacle, and Saturday's qualifying round brought some intrigue and excitement for Sunday's race. Charles LeClerc, who has hit the podium in two straight races, kept up his stellar recent form and secured pole position.
Even more interestingly, it was McLaren's Oscar Piastri and not Lando Norris who took runner-up while LeClerc's Ferrari teammate Carlos Sainz rounded out the Top 3. Notably absent from the top of the starting grid is Max Verstappen, who managed to secure only the sixth position.
Continue reading for free picks and Formula One predictions for the 2024 Monaco Grand Prix on Sunday, May 26.
Monaco Grand Prix 2024 odds
| Driver | Team |  |
 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | -250 | -250 |
| Oscar Piastri | McLaren | +450 | +500 |
| Carlos Sainz | Ferrari | +1,000 | +550 |
| Max Verstappen | Red Bull | +1,200 | +1,300 |
| Lando Norris | McLaren | +1,200 | +1,200 |
| George Russell | Mercedes | +2,800 | +2,900 |
| Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | +5,000 | +4,200 |
| Alex Albon | Williams | +30,000 | +42,000 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | RB | +30,000 | +20,000 |
| Sergio Perez | Red Bull | +50,000 | +50,000 |
| Pierre Gasley | Alpine | +50,000 | +50,000 |
| Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | +50,000 | +50,000 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | Haas | +70,000 | +50,000 |
| Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | +70,000 | +50,000 |
| Kevin Magnussen | Haas | +70,000 | +50,000 |
| Esteban Ocon | Alpine | +70,000 | +50,000 |
| Daniel Ricciardo | RB | +70,000 | +50,000 |
| Valtteri Bottas | Kick Sauber | +80,000 | +50,000 |
| Guanyu Zhou | Kick Sauber | +80,000 | +50,000 |
| Logan Sargeant | Williams | +80,000 | +50,000 |
Odds as of 5-25-24.
Monaco Grand Prix 2024 picks
Race prediction and best bet: Lando Norris (+1,200 at FanDuel)
The chalk pick here would be the pole position holder and odds-on favorite in Charles LeClerc, but there are a few factors working against him here.
For one, he hasn't won a race since the Australian Grand Prix in April of 2022, a stretch that now spans across his last 48 races. Secondly, he's managed to finish as the runner-up just once this season across seven races (coincidentally, the Australian Grand Prix).
Possibly most importantly, however, is the Ferrari cars (at least up until Saturday's qualifying round) have not displayed a ceiling or consistency that has been up to par with the Red Bull and McLaren cars. And lastly, the driver starting in pole position in the last four Monaco Grand Prixs has failed to win in all but one race.
And while McLaren's Oscar Piastri makes more sense from an implied probability standpoint (second-best odds of +500) and starting position standpoint (second), teammate Lando Norris not only has repeatedly outperformed him but also possesses a better track record at Monaco.
His three previous races at Monaco have all been prior to his emergence as a podium mainstay, but he still managed a sixth-place finish in 2022 and even took fourth in 2021 as a fresh-faced 21-year-old.
Best F1 bonuses
New Users
No-sweat first bet up to $1,000
If your first bet doesn’t win! Claim Now
New Users
Wager $5 on any market
Get $150 in bonus bets! Claim Now
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2024.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Monaco Grand Prix 2024 starting grid
| Position | Driver | Position | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Leclerc | 2 | Oscar Piastri |
| 3 | Carlos Sainz Jr. | 4 | Lando Norris |
| 5 | George Russell | 6 | Max Verstappen |
| 7 | Lewis Hamilton | 8 | Yuki Tsunoda |
| 9 | Alex Albon | 10 | Pierre Gasly |
| 11 | Esteban Ocon | 12 | Nico Hulkenberg |
| 13 | Daniel Ricciardo | 14 | Lance Stroll |
| 15 | Kevin Magnussen | 16 | Fernando Alonso |
| 17 | Logan Sargeant | 18 | Sergio Perez |
| 19 | Valtteri Bottas | 20 | Guanyu Zhou |
Monaco Grand Prix 2023 pre-qualifying favorites
Max Verstappen (-200 to -150)
We've grown accustomed to Max Verstappen being listed as an overwhelming favorite at every race, and it makes sense. He set the all-time record for most victories in an F1 season with 19 in 2023, beating his own record of 15 from 2022. He won 10 straight races — another record — and was winning by huge margins.
Well, the cracks might be starting to show. Verstappen finished second in Miami and while he won the Emilia Romagna GP on Sunday, he did so by less than a full second. Still, Verstappen has won two of the last three Monaco Grands Prix and is still the betting favorite until someone can topple him. He's still won five of the seven races he's entered to start the season.
Lando Norris (+500 to +550)
Lando Norris barely lost at the Emilia Romagna GP, nearly becoming the first back-to-back F1 winner not named Verstappen since Lewis Hamilton won the Saudi Arabia GP and Qatar GP in 2021.
Norris has registered three consecutive podium finishes. He has one podium in four chances at Monaco — a third-place finish in 2021 — but his recent form has established him as the top challenger to Verstappen's dynasty.
Historically, McLaren has fared well at the Monaco GP, winning more races than any other constructor with 15. However, it's been a while. McLaren last took the checkered flag when Hamilton won in 2008.
Charles Leclerc (+500 to +550)
For all of Norris' deserved accolades, Charles Leclerc has been more consistent in 2024 overall. He hasn't finished worse than fourth in any race and has four podium finishes, including consecutive third-place results.
Monaco hasn't proved fruitful for the 26-year-old, though, as he has never finished better than fourth (2022). Nevertheless, Leclerc is another name that could challenge Verstappen if his stranglehold atop the F1 standings is truly about to wane (let's not start counting chickens just yet, though).
Odds as of 5-20-2024.
Monaco Grand Prix opening odds reaction
Max Verstappen to win (-125 at BetMGM)
If someone told you that Max Verstappen would open at -300 for last week's race (which are historically low odds for him at open), would go on to win that race, and then would open at a third of those odds the following race, you would be highly curious at worst.
And that is exactly what has happened here. Verstappen's market, and by extension his gap over the rest of the grid, has shortened rather noticeably in the last few weeks.
That is largely in part due to the emergence of Lando Norris, who has been steadily climbing the grid over the last year. And after Norris convincingly won in Miami two races ago and then finished less than a second behind Verstappen last week, Verstappen finds himself just -125 for a race he won in 2021 and 2023 and came within +1.491 seconds of winning in 2022.
Sure the gap has certainly closed but finding Verstappen at these odds is insanity, and at the end of the day, he still has won five of this year's seven races.
Lean: Bet convincingly before qualification.
Lando Norris to win (+550 at FanDuel)
Norris put on another impressive showing last week with a narrow second-place finish, his second in three races with the only other result being a win in Miami. This now marks his ninth podium in his last 15 races and his 12th in his last 18.
His second-place finish from his second starting position now means Norris has lost positioning in just five of his last 21 races, demonstrating a level of consistency that maybe one other driver on the grid possesses today.
Despite Norris' success, both super recently and spanning to the latter half of last year, he still finds himself third in odds to Charles LeClerc. LeClerc has had his fair share of impressive results as of late but Norris' has been more pronounced and much more consistent.
Norris also has a notably great track record at Monaco despite his last three races here being before his breakthrough. In 2023 he managed just a ninth-place finish but in 2022 an even younger and less proven Norris took sixth and in 2021 he even took fourth as a 21-year-old.
By all accounts, this race is a two-man race barring any major technical or race-day mishaps, and Norris is worth backing at these odds.
Lean: Bet before qualification.
Charles LeClerc to win (+500 at DraftKings)
Rounding out this preview is the man who rounded out last week's podium in Charles LeClerc. LeClerc has found a level of consistency this year that he has sorely lacked since his blistering start of the 2022 season.
With last week's podium, he now has four on the season across seven races, but more importantly, LeClerc doesn't seem to be the victim of repeated massive team management blunders and technical failures with his car.
But the fact of the matter is that until LeClerc's engineers can get his car up to the levels of the Red Bull (although their gap has diminished) or even the McLaren's, then he isn't really a threat to win any given race barring some key retirements.
Lean: Stay away.
Previous Monaco Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull |
| 2022 | Sergio Perez | Red Bull |
| 2021 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull |
| 2020 | N/A | Not held due to COVID-19 |
| 2019 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2018 | Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull |
| 2017 | Sebastian Vettel | Ferrari |
| 2016 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2015 | Nico Rosberg | Mercedes |
| 2014 | Nico Rosberg | Mercedes |
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Understanding F1 betting odds
The most popular way to bet on Formula 1 odds is by simply picking the winner of a particular race. Other popular F1 betting options include which car/constructor will win and whether or not a particular race car driver will end up on the podium with a Top-3 finish.
F1 race odds usually look like this:
- Sergio Perez +1,400
This means that on a $100 bet, you'll stand to profit $1,400 if Perez wins that particular race. If one driver is especially dominant, you might see a minus sign (-) ahead of that driver's odds like this:
- Max Verstappen -120
This means that you would need to bet $120 to win $100 on Verstappen winning the race.
