2024 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix 2024 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Verstappen Favored Once More

Driver	Team
Max Verstappen	Red Bull	-800	-700	-800
Sergio Perez	Red Bull	+1,100	+1,600	+700
Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	+1,300	+1,400	+1,100
Fernando Alonso	Aston Martin	+2,800	+3,800	+3,300
Lando Norris	McLaren	+4,500	+8,500	+10,000
Oscar Piastri	McLaren	+4,500	+11,000	+10,000
George Russell	Mercedes	+5,000	+7,000	+6,600
Lewis Hamilton	Mercedes	+5,500	+11,000	+6,600
Oliver Bearman*	Ferrari	+18,000	+20,000	+25,000
Lance Stroll	Aston Martin	+30,000	+18,000	+20,000
Yuki Tsunoda	RB	+50,000	+50,000	+100,000
Daniel Ricciardo	RB	+60,000	+24,000	+100,000
Alexander Albon	Williams	+60,000	+42,000	+50,000
Kevin Magnussen	Haas	+60,000	+50,000	+100,000
Nico Hulkenberg	Haas	+60,000	+50,000	+150,000
Logan Sargeant	Williams	+80,000	+50,000	+300,000
Valtteri Bottas	Kick Sauber	+80,000	+50,000	+250,000
Guanyu Zhou	Kick Sauber	+80,000	+50,000	+300,000
Pierre Gasly	Alpine	+80,000	+50,000	+250,000
Esteban Ocon	Alpine	+80,000	+50,000	+250,000

Odds as of March 9, 2024.

*Replacement driver for Carlos Sainz

Saudi Arabian Grand Prix 2024 starting grid

Saudi Arabian Grand Prix 2024 post-qualifying picks

Race prediction: Max Verstappen to win (-600 at Caesars)

As we always say there is nothing impressive or sexy about picking Verstappen to win, but in 95% of cases it's very likely the only reasonable person to pick.

When looking at the 2024 schedule, the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix provided some of the better intrigue given that 1) Sergio Perez had won last year's race and the last two qualifying rounds and 2) Verstappen has had some slow starts even in his last two seasons which he utterly dominated.

But now that he has taken pole position after edging out Perez (third position) and Charles Leclerc (runner-up), Verstappen has all the runway in the world (this track is notoriously straight) to create distance between him and the rest of the grid.

Best bet: Sergio Perez fastest lap (+900 at Caesars)

Sergio Perez had a disappointing qualifying round after only being able to secure the third position, denying a Red Bull front row. Ferrari's Charles Leclerc bested him by just +0.016 in the final lap of the final qualifying round, but the context here is important.

Leclerc, despite his runner-up position, said that Ferrari was more behind Red Bull than he thought they would be. He noted that with his final lap of Q3 (after an experimental lap to open the round), he "put everything together and that was what was in the car today" and said they were "a bit further away" than they hoped and that they hoped they could "surprise" Red Bull.

In essence, it sounds like Ferrari hit their ceiling in qualifying. On the other hand, Perez noted that he was off today, saying that he thought Max "had a tremendous lap and that "that wasn't possible for me today".

So putting things together, 1) if Verstappen can cruise to a win from pole position, he won't need to push for fastest lap and 2) Perez seemingly has more room for improvement while LeClerc does not - Verstappen's two biggest threats. 

Saudi Arabian Grand Prix 2024 opening odds reaction

Max Verstappen to win (-440 at FanDuel)

Whether it was the freshness of the season and accompanying optimism or just a flat-out miss by oddsmakers, Verstappen opened at +110 to win last week's season opener, when he had frequently opened in the -300 to -400 range during the latter two-thirds of last season.

That quickly was corrected post-qualifying, when he jumped to -500 to win, and now this week's opening odds of -440 are a clear indication that those plus-money odds were a one-and-done phenomenon that we are unlikely to see anytime soon.

In the three years of this race's existence, Verstappen has finished second twice (2021, 2023) and first in the other. In one of the second-place finishes, Verstappen still put on quite the show by climbing all the way from 15th on the grid following some qualification round mishaps.

But as he demonstrated with last week's double result, Verstappen still has every ounce of determination to dominate even after a historic season of winning. We should expect that to continue this week but without the value of last week's opening market.

Lean: Stay away.

Sergio Perez to win (+850 at FanDuel)

It's only in Verstappen's world that the reigning champion of a Grand Prix can be priced at +850 to repeat, but here we are.

This comes despite an impressive performance in last week's season opener during which Perez was able to climb past three drives to secure the runner-up position, demonstrating good form heading into this week.

For those eyeing a Perez wager this weekend, it may be best to do so before qualifying, seeing as he has now secured pole position in two straight Saudi Arabian Grand Prix.

Lean: Bet prior to qualifying.

Sergio Perez fastest qualifier (+1,000 at FanDuel)

Here is potentially another blind spot in the early 2024 Formula One market. To be priced at +850 to win but +1,000 to secure pole position is seemingly a clear mistake, given that Perez has done the former just once (last year) while he has done the latter in back-to-back years.

While it's true that Verstappen encountered difficulties in the second round last year, leading to his inability to post a round three times, it's worth noting that in 2022, Perez outright beat Verstappen.

Perez also wasn't the sole competitor to clock a faster time than Verstappen, as Ferrari teammates Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz achieved this feat as well. In fact, in last year's qualifying, Verstappen never once posted the best time across the three rounds: Sainz finished above Mad Max in the first round and the aforementioned trio of Sainz, Leclerc, and Perez all had him beaten in the second round.

To suggest someone with Perez's track record should be a 10-to-1 underdog to Verstappen and the rest of the grid is a bit far-fetched.

Lean: Bet with full confidence.

Saudi Arabian Prix 2024 pre-qualifying favorites

Max Verstappen (-490 to -400)

Max Verstappen picked up right where he left off by winning the Bahrain GP to open the 2024 F1 calendar. Unsurprisingly, he's the heavy favorite in Saudi Arabia for the year's second race.

However, the 2023 Saudi Arabian GP was one of three races where Max didn't find himself in the winner's circle. That said, Verstappen won this race in 2022 and has never finished worse than second in the three years it's been held.

Sergio Perez (+800 to +1,300)

When Verstappen came in second on this track a year ago, it was teammate Sergio Perez who ultimately took home the victory. Part of that may have been tied to his strong qualifying times that provided him with the first spot in the starting grid. Comparatively, Verstappen opened at 15.

Checo echoed 2023 by finishing second at Bahrain to his teammate. 

Charles Leclerc (+1,100 to +1,600)

It was a disappointing 2023 for Leclerc, who followed up a three-win 2022 by not once finishing in the winner's circle. He ended the year with back-to-back runner-up finishes and opened 2024 in fourth place at the Bahrain GP.

If Ferrari is hoping to break through Verstappen's ironclad grip atop the F1 leaderboard, it will fall on Leclerc to make it happen. He finished seventh in this race a year ago after being a runner-up to Verstappen in 2022.

Odds as of March 4, 2024.

Previous Saudi Arabian Grand Prix winners

Understanding F1 betting odds

The most popular way to bet on Formula 1 odds is by simply picking the winner of a particular race. Other popular F1 betting options include which car/constructor will win and whether or not a particular race car driver will end up on the podium with a Top-3 finish.

F1 race odds usually look like this:

• Sergio Perez +1,400

This means that on a $100 bet, you'll stand to profit $1,400 if Perez wins that particular race. If one driver is especially dominant, you might see a minus sign (-) ahead of that driver's odds like this:

• Max Verstappen -120

This means that you would need to bet $120 to win $100 on Verstappen winning the race.

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