Intrigue has been introduced to the Spanish Grand Prix following Saturday's qualifying round, in which Lando Norris secured pole position ahead of Max Verstappen.
However, despite Verstappen's F1 odds shortening as the betting favorite, we expect Norris to reign supreme on Sunday in Barcelona. Let's dive into the latest Spanish GP odds for June 23 at Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya.
Spanish Grand Prix 2024 picks
Pre-practice leans
- Verstappen to win - bet before qualifying, if at all
- Norris to win - bet before qualifying
- LeClerc to win - avoid entirely
Post-qualifying picks
- Norris to win
Our race prediction and best bet will be posted after qualifying.
Spanish Grand Prix 2024 odds
| Driver | Team | Opening odds | Post-qualifying |
|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | Red Bull | -190 | -145 |
| Lando Norris | McLaren | +400 | +165 |
| Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | +800 | +2,200 |
| Oscar Piastri | McLaren | +1,600 | +6,500 |
| Carlos Sainz | Ferrari | +2,200 | +2,800 |
| Sergio Perez | Red Bull | +2,500 | +10,000 |
| Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | +2,500 | +1,200 |
| George Russell | Mercedes | +2,500 | <-+1,800> |
| Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | +10,000 | +30,000 |
| Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | +15,000 | +50,000 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | RB | +20,000 | +70,000 |
| Daniel Ricciardo | RB | +20,000 | +70,000 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | Haas | +25,000 | +50,000 |
| Alexander Albon | Williams | +25,000 | +70,000 |
| Esteban Ocon | Alpine | +30,000 | +40,000 |
| Kevin Magnussen | Haas | +30,000 | +60,000 |
| Pierre Gasly | Alpine | +30,000 | +25,000 |
| Valtteri Bottas | Kick Sauber | +30,000 | +60,000 |
| Guanyu Zhou | Kick Sauber | +30,000 | +60,000 |
| Logan Sargeant | Williams | +30,000 | +70,000 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 6-22.
Spanish Grand Prix 2024 pre-qualifying favorites
Max Verstappen is the betting favorite after winning the last two editions of this race. His closest competition in the odds — Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri of McLaren and Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz of Ferrari — have never won in Spain nor have they done particularly well. Of those four drivers, none have ever even had a podium finish at the Spanish Grand Prix.
Sainz had the best finish in 2023 among those drivers, finishing fifth behind Lewis Hamilton, George Russell, and Sergio Perez. Still, 2024 has been a noticeably different landscape for these men compared to a year ago. Sainz, Norris, and Leclerc have each won races in 2024 and they've all routinely finished among the Top 3. In races they've completed, neither Sainz nor Leclerc has finished worse than fifth.
Hamilton is perhaps the dark horse, though he has hardly seemed like a threat to Verstappen — or anyone, really — in some time. He hasn't reached a podium in 2024 and hasn't won a race since the 2021 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix. However, no active driver has had more success at the Spanish Grand Prix than Hamilton. With six chequered flags under his belt at the event, one more would give him the record, breaking a tie with Michael Schumacher.
Still, it's Verstappen's race to lose even with a narrowed field of competition relative to recent years. It would be his fourth Spanish GP win, which would put him alone in third and within striking distance of Schumacher and Hamilton.
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Spanish Grand Prix pre-practice leans
Max Verstappen to win
(-190 at DraftKings)
Given how the gap between Max Verstasppen and the rest of the grid has all but entirely closed as of late, long gone are the days when Verstappen would open as a -300 to -400 favorite. And despite being the back-to-back winner of the Spanish Grand Prix (including a double result win last year), Verstappen still finds himself just -190 for Sunday's race.
Verstappen has managed to win just two of the last four races (a seemingly ridiculous thing to say), finishing sixth in Monaco two races ago and losing outright to Lando Norris at the Miami Grand Prix.
Even his wins during that span have been narrow and a far cry from his 20+ second wins of the past, with his win last week coming by +3.879 seconds and his win at Emilia Romagna coming at +0.725, both to Lando Norris.
Nevertheless, his history here is arguably stronger than his history at any of those recent races and getting him at anything inside -200 is a gift, and betting it now is likely the best value you will get all weekend.
Lean: Bet pre-qualifying if betting at all.
Lando Norris to win
(+600 at BetMGM)
Lando Norris' arrival at the top of Formula One is certainly here. After securing his first win in Miami, he has managed to keep extremely close behind Verstappen.
And while his results here last year (17th) were not great, they were entirely the result of damage sustained to his car on the first turn. Prior to that, he had raced to a third-place finish during the qualifying round, and in 2022 (well before his emergence), he finished eighth from an 11th starting position.
And for what it's worth, Norris seems to be rectifying all of his poor double-digit showings from the start of last year between his finishes in Bahrain (sixth vs. 17th), Saudi Arabia (eighth vs. 17th), Canada (second vs. 13th), and of course Miami (first vs.17th).
Norris may be second-best in odds for Sunday, but his odds arguably deserve to be shorter, as he has both the understated track history and recent performances to suggest so.
Lean: Bet prior to qualifying.
Charles LeClerc to win
(+1,300 at FanDuel)
Charles LeClerc has had quite the range of outcomes as of late, between picking up a win in Monaco — his first win since the middle of the 2022 season — and an early retirement last time out in the Canadian Grand Prix.
His results have been equally wonky here at the Spanish Grand Prix, with him masterfully climbing to 11th last year from a pit-lane start after failing to move past the first round of qualification.
In 2022 he took pole position during qualification and held the lead 27 laps into the race before suffering car failures that led to a retirement.
LeClerc undeniably has the talent to challenge (and potentially win) any given race but between the slew of challenges he’s faced in his last three years he tends to find himself a boom-or-bust type of driver who is grateful to find himself on the podium (as he had in the three races prior to the last).
Lean: Avoid entirely.
Spanish Grand Prix 2024 post-qualifying picks
Lando Norris to win
(+175 at DraftKings)
Throughout the last four races, Lando Norris has arguably been just as good as Verstappen, if not entirely outright better.
Norris, of course, beat him in Miami outright, while Verstappen bested him at the Emilia Romagna and Canadian Grand Prix, but by a combined margin of less than five seconds. Both drivers saw less-than-ideal finishes at Monaco, with Norris (fourth) beating out Verstappen (sixth).
It was for these reasons that we advised a pre-qualifying wager on Lando Norris to win at +600. However, those listings are now long gone, with Norris' best odds floating in the +175 range as of Saturday afternoon.
Verstappen deserves every right to be the race favorite given he is the reigning back-to-back champion and is coming off of a double result win last season, but Norris has been no slouch at this track either and is an entirely different beast now than he was last year.
Norris' 17th place finish last year due to damage to his car understates the excellence he displayed during the qualifying round (third), which even came before his emergence. The McLaren star also possesses an elite ability to maintain positioning, having finished in a worse position relative to his starting position in just five of his last 23 races.
The gap between Verstappen and Norris is far too large, leaving plenty of value on the latter heading into Sunday.
Spanish Grand Prix 2024 starting grid
| Position | Driver | Position | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lando Norris | 2 | Max Verstappen |
| 3 | Lewis Hamilton | 4 | George Russell |
| 5 | Charles Leclerc | 6 | Carlos Sainz |
| 7 | Pierre Gasly | 8 | Esteban Ocon |
| 9 | Oscar Piastri | 10 | Sergio Perez |
| 11 | Fernando Alonso | 12 | Valtteri Bottas |
| 13 | Nico Hulkenberg | 14 | Lance Stroll |
| 15 | Zhou Guanyu | 16 | Kevin Magnussen |
| 17 | Yuki Tsunoda | 18 | Daniel Ricciardo |
| 19 | Alexander Albon | 20 | Logan Sargeant |
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Previous Spanish Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull |
| 2022 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull |
| 2021 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2020 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2019 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2018 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2017 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2016 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull |
| 2015 | Nico Rosberg | Mercedes |
| 2014 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
Understanding F1 betting odds
The most popular way to bet on Formula 1 odds is by simply picking the winner of a particular race. Other popular F1 betting options include which car/constructor will win and whether or not a particular race car driver will end up on the podium with a Top-3 finish.
F1 race odds usually look like this:
- Sergio Perez +1,400
This means that on a $100 bet, you'll stand to profit $1,400 if Perez wins that particular race. If one driver is especially dominant, you might see a minus sign (-) ahead of that driver's odds like this:
- Max Verstappen -120
This means that you would need to bet $120 to win $100 on Verstappen winning the race.
