2024 United States Grand Prix 2024 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Norris Keeps Gaining on Verstappen

McLaren has passed Red Bull in the Constructor's Standings, and while Max Verstappen still owns a healthy lead in the Driver's Championship pursuit, Lando Norris has made headway and is the No. 2 choice to win in Austin.

Chris Gregory - Publishing Editor at Covers.com
Chris Gregory • Publishing Editor
Oct 20, 2024 • 11:07 ET • 4 min read
Max Verstappen Lando Norris Formula 1
Photo By - Imagn Images

Just 52 points separate Max Verstappen and Lando Norris in the Drivers' Championship standings. The latter has an opportunity to close that gap after taking pole position at the United States Grand Prix.

Can Verstappen end his eight-race winless streak, his longest in four years? Or can Lando Norris and McLaren continue this recent impressive run as the sports' best cars and drivers?

Continue reading for free Formula 1 picks for the United States Grand Prix on Sunday, October 20.

United States Grand Prix 2024 odds

Player/Team Pre-qualifying odds Post-qualifying odds
McLaren Lando Norris -110 +225
McLaren Oscar Piastri +450 +2,500
Red Bull Max Verstappen +450 -140
Ferrari Charles Leclerc +850 +850

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 10-20.

Name Pre-qualifying odds Post-qualifying odds
Mercedes Lewis Hamilton +1,400 +20,000
Mercedes George Russell +1,800 +6,500
Ferrari Carlos Sainz +1,800 +600
Red Bull Sergio Perez +5,000 +15,000

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 10-20.

United States Grand Prix 2024 pre-qualifying favorites

Max Verstappen has won the United States Grand Prix in three consecutive years, but, as has been the trend, this hasn't mattered so much in other recent races. He won three straight Dutch Grands Prix before a second-place finish in August and won two Italian Grands Prix in a row before finishing sixth in September.

While Verstappen still leads the Driver's Championship standings, Lando Norris has won two of the last four races and enters Sunday as the prevailing favorite. McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri has won two of the last six and is second on the odds board (equal to Verstappen). Charles Leclerc, who won the aforementioned Italian GP, is fourth. 

United States Grand Prix 2024 post-qualifying picks

Lando Norris to win (+250 at BetMGM)

It may have taken until this point in the season, but it's become readily apparent that McLaren not only has the best car and engineering team butmaybe the best drivers.

That includes Lando Norris, who has now logged podium finishes in five of his last seven races, with wins in two of his last four. It's no accident that teammate Oscar Piastri won one of the other two.

Norris had a fantastic showing here last year, finishing second behind Max Verstappen but back during a time when Red Bull's car was a much more dominant beast. And in the year prior, the younger and much less experienced Norris still put up a sixth-place finish, tied for his second-best placing in the back half of that season.

Norris and Verstappen seem to be far ahead of the pack, as they qualified three-tenths quicker than the rest of the field, but Norris obviously had the edge and has now had it for some time.

Charles Leclerc to podium (-117 at BetRivers)

Amidst this recent run for McLaren has been an underappreciated showing by Ferrari's Charles Leclerc. He's hit the podium in four of his last five races and now looks to rebound from a now disappointing-by-his-recent-standards fifth-place finish in Singapore.

He has a strong track history here as well, finishing third (2022), fourth (2021), and fourth (2021) in the races he's finished here.

And he just has teammate Carlos Sainz (third position) to beat, someone he's bested consistently this season.

Oscar Piastri fastest lap (+1,400 at DraftKings)

Oscar Piastri managed just a fifth-place finish in Saturday's qualifying round, but if anything, that gives him room to run and demonstrate the excellence of the McLaren car.

He does just have one fastest lap to his name this year but teammate Lando Norris has won three of the last four and has a season-best four to his name.

Although the fifth-position start hampers Piastri's chances to win, it arguably gives him more space to post a high enough pace to cash this 14/1 prop.

United States Grand Prix 2024 starting grid

Position Driver Position Driver
1 Lando Norris 2 Max Verstappen
3 Carlos Sainz 4 Charles Leclerc
5 Oscar Piastri 6 George Russell
7 Pierre Gasly 8 Fernando Alonso
9 Kevin Magnussen 10 Sergio Perez
11 Yuki Tsunoda 12 Nico Hulkenberg
13 Esteban Ocon 14 Lance Stroll
15 Alexander Albon 16 Franco Colapinto
17 Valtteri Bottas 18 Lewis Hamilton
19 Zhou Guanyu 20 Liam Lawson

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Previous United States Grand Prix winners

Year Driver Team
2023 Max Verstappen Red Bull
2022 Max Verstappen Red Bull
2021 Max Verstappen Red Bull
2020 NOT HELD COVID-19
2019 Valtteri Bottas Mercedes
2018 Kimi Raikkonen Ferrari

Understanding F1 betting odds

The most popular way to bet on Formula 1 odds is by simply picking the winner of a particular race. Other popular F1 betting options include which car/constructor will win and whether or not a particular race car driver will end up on the podium with a Top-3 finish.

F1 race odds usually look like this:

  • Sergio Perez +1,400

This means that on a $100 bet, you'll stand to profit $1,400 if Perez wins that particular race. If one driver is especially dominant, you might see a minus sign (-) ahead of that driver's odds like this:

  • Max Verstappen -120

This means that you would need to bet $120 to win $100 on Verstappen winning the race.

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Chris Gregory Covers.com
Publishing Editor

In his three years on the Covers editorial team, Chris Gregory has helped bolster the site’s PGA Tour and college football coverage, though his love for Rory McIlroy and the Buckeyes is often met with disappointment. He brings a journalism and marketing background to his work as a Publishing Editor and has appeared on Jason Logan’s Sharp 600 to talk about the Masters and golf’s other majors.

His best betting advice? Stay away from betting your favorite teams; it’ll only make the hurt worse.

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