Dawson vs Pascal

Pascal ITD, +564, 1.8 units

Pascal, +310, 5 units

Interesting fight. I don't see how Dawson is going to be in peak form for this fight. I have a gut feeling he is stunned at some point and possibly gets waived off. Dawson can't sell tickets. NEVER underestimate how much your ability to draw has an influence on the outcome of your fights. Home cooking and an unmotivated/unprepared Dawson is walking into a hornets nest of circumstances tonight.

Pascal wins, by hook or by crook.

Why would such a change be necessary? How would you feel if you've whipped everyone put in front of you and still can't sell a ticket or gather a fan base? What does he gain from a victory here?

 It takes a special type of fighter to rise up against these type circumstances. Dawson, while very good, isn't special. It has nothing to do with elite talent. He just doesn't have that "it" factor. It doesn't matter if he goes 100-0. Nobody cares.

He has/will have a great career. However, tonight will be a minor setback. In fact, a loss to Pascal would get an instant rematch and he would finally have a buzz and a legit reason to market a fight. Boxing is a business in entertainment, not a guy winning every fight in a boring fashion.

Dawson it shall be. motivational problems ?

This is Dawson not Arreola.

I think you're missing my point. I'm not talking about getting up and doing sit-ups and putting in your roadwork. I'm talking about if he is ready to grind out the most difficult fight of his career. Here is the thing.. if Dawson pitches an 8-4 type of performance (which is about the BEST you can hope for) is a wager on him really safe? Do we really have to list the ways he can get screwed?

Why does everyone assume Dawson is on a level above Pascal? THAT might be the biggest mistake in wagering on Dawson. It just isn't true. Is he faster? Maybe, probably slightly. Harder puncher? Nope. Better defense? Probably even, but Pascal's style is tougher to figure out. Conditioning? Even. Where is this magic advantage that makes Dawson 3/1 better against Pascal?

We are on different sides of this one, walk.  I like Dawson a lot here.  I think Dawson -13.5 points at -115 is the best bet here.  I think he'll control Pascal with his jab and toy with him.  I also think Dawson is very motivated for this fight.  He was saying all the right things in the articles I read leading up to this fight.  Maybe he has me fooled, but I think he can dominate tonight. 

Here are my plays for this weekend:

- Dawson pts handicap -13.5 (-115) risking 2.3 to win 2.

- Dawson by unanimous decision (+125) risking 1 to win 1.25.

- Kim/Vazquez over 10.5 rounds (+135) risking 2 to win 2.7.

- Kim/Vazquez draw (+2750) risking .2 to win 5.5.

Parlay:

- Dawson points handicap -13.5 (-115) + Kim/Vazquez over 10.5 (+130) + Garcia (-330) risking .5 to win about 2.3.

Either way, good luck. 

Yes, very different sides. As far as Vazquez/Kim, I'm playing Vazquez straight. Kim leads with his face and should be facing that "step up" fighter that will expose him. Vazquez doesn't have a ton of pop, but if you hammer away enough... who knows. Vazquez close the gate on Kim's attempt to become a relevant.

Good luck buddy.

Vazquez should be bigger too.  He fought a few times at 147, while Kim spent most of his time at featherweight.  Not sure who wins this one, but I think Kim will have his hands full and I don't think Vazquez will be too affected by his power.

That might be the best bet of all. However, what defines class? As in Pascal is a cocky thug and Dawson drinks his tea with his pinky up? Or are you saying that Dawson is a better caliber of athlete?

That remains the point I can't drive home enough. Why exactly is Dawson so much better than Pascal? He isn't much faster, if he has a true speed advantage at all. Pascal doesn't have the blistering fast jab, but he springs and lets off several shots at a time. If Glen Johnson had Dawson almost out and made him work his ass of for two (one of them razor close) decisions, why does everyone fell that Pascal won't do the same? Pascal is a much better fighter than anyone Dawson has fought to this point. MUCH better.

You have to consider power for different punches. Dawson gets more power from his STRAIGT left than Pascal from his straight right(important because Dawson will keep his distance). However at mid-range Pascals looping right is harder than Dawson's looping left. Pascal's best punch is his left hook which has more force than Dawson's right hook but Dawson's hook is more educated(Have you seen Dawson's fluid double hook combos - beautiful). As far as speed, I think Pascal is more athletic but he's too tight and not as educated or fluid with his punches, which makes Dawson "a faster boxer".

As far as Dawson fighting slow old guys, I'm not impressed with Pascal's recent resume. Diaconu is a plodder who, although younger, is not as tricky as Glen Johnson(I love Johnson's sneaky hybrid jab-upper punch to the solar plexus). And Sylvio Branco was 42 or 43 when he fought Pascal. Pascal lost to Froch, and I think Dawson would easily outpoint Froch.

If you have money on Pascal I hope it's on the points prop - then again different people have different stragies. I gamble for a living, so I'll sometimes make risky, BUT SMALL, "throwaway bets", but I HATE LOSING MONEY - probably more than most.

Couldn't have said it any better. IF Kim gets past Vazquez, I'm going to lose it, or be flat broke after betting against him again and again. Kim shouldn't have much problem coming forward against the classic boxer though. However, still probably a level above what Kim can beat with his Rocky Balboa esque style. So you feel if it goes rounds that Kim would have won some rounds based on soid pressure? If not, then why the distance prop instead of Vazquez?

I was thinking Vazquez myself, but I've lost betting against Kim before. I try to stay away from betting against fighters I've lost to in the past. Sometimes ego has a weird way of presenting itself.

Disagree. Floyd Mayweather, the biggest draw in PPV history via the numbers, didn't sell tickets until he created the "Money Mayweather" character. As little as 5 years ago Gatti was a bigger draw although not on the same planet as Mayweather. Cotto was a bigger draw. Several other fighters outsold Mayweather on PPV too.

Mayweather is a once in a lifetime, bred for boxing monster. Talent doesn't sell tickets. This forum could name several fights we would love to see as boxing purists. If casual fans won't buy it, it won't happen.

I just put in Vazquez +24.5 points at +110.  I'm basically playing against a Kim KO at this point.  NOT Kim by KO was -110, so I took this route instead.

Floyd didn't sell tickets/PPVs until he fought Oscar and Hatton.  He was basically the B side of those promotions, but he wisely used the exposure to cultivate his villian character.  If he didn't fight those two though, I'm sure he'd still be fighting in front of half-full casino crowds.  The Gatti fight was an all-Gatti crowd, and the Judah crowd was as much Judah's name as it was Floyd's.