Donkey Plays for the Week (WAR Cotto)

2006 Results (March-July): +19.2 units (+$1,920)
2007 Results: +42.25 units (+$4,225)
Last Week: -5.15 units (-$515)
2008 to Date: -23.76 units (-$2,376)

Another rough week last week.  If I go down 30 units for the year a break will be in order and I will just let my futures play out and hold off for a while.  You gotta know when to take a break and 2008 hasn't been my cup of tea as far as boxing betting goes.  Hopefully it won't come to that though and 08 turns a corner this weekend. Aside from these, I will probably play Tarver.  I guess I should have grabbed a piece at even, but I will hold off now and see what it does; a lot of Tarver haters out there plus a lot of Woods believers so I'm interested to see if it heads back down.  I have a total in mind for Telefutura that should have some nice odds attached.

.30 of a unit on under 9.5 rounds (+350) in Whitfield-Vargas
I saw some value here, I would have expected the +250 range at the most on this prop.  Whitfield was sitting down more on his punches against Jimenez last time he was on the deuce, but that said Jimenez looked shot.  I like the kid, he's got a good bit of talent and he's very quick.  Vargas hasn't ever fought in the states so of course he is an unknown here and you can only go off of what is on paper.  I have a feeling though that cuts could be a factor as Whitfield does have a tendency to dart in at times.

1 unit parlay to win .82
Whitfield (-275)
Margarito (-300)
As stated I like Whitfield's talent and quicks.  Also, I like Margarito Saturday night but wanted to lower the price on him.

1.75 units on Sylvester (+115) vs Castillejo
Though I am a bit leery of his chin Sylvester has some advantages here IMO.  He can box pretty well and he has to know that that is what he has to do.  Even a semi-shot Vargas was able to out box Javier, and if that wasn't lesson enough for Sylvester hopefully he learned what he had to from the two Sturm-Javier fights.  Also, he has the homeland/promoter backing.  There may be a couple of semi-rocky moments here, but I think Sylvester boxes smartly to a decision win over Javier.  Sylvester's chin is the only thing that keeps me from going a bit larger here.

The Big Boy
5.6 units on under 9.5 rounds (-140) in Cotto-Gomez
2.9 units on under 9.5 rounds (-145) in Cotto-Gomez
Don't know what I can say that I haven't said already on this one.  My thoughts really haven't changed.  I still really like it.  Saw the Miguel/Evangelista break up rumor that turned out not to be true at max yesterday; don't think this really matters.

Futures.....
1 unit on Hopkins (+250) vs Calzaghe
.50 of a unit on Hopkins (+220) vs Calzaghe
.50 of a unit on Hopkins by decision (+325)
1 unit on Branco (+350) vs Lynes

.30 of a unit under 9.5 rounds (+350) in Whitfield-Vargas

1 unit parlay to win .82
Whitfield (-275)
Margarito (-300)

Did Vargas look super short in there or was it me?  Looks like the Sting Ray has a decent following in Augusta including that one judge who had it 117-111.  I gave Whitfield seven rounds.  I thought Atlas was pretty solid in his analysis tonight on Whitfield; he could have made a few adjustments to make this fight much easier.

Looks like that Telefutura under I was thinking about is probably off the table unless the odds change at my books.  I liked the under in Smith-Karass because I think Smith's legs are gone.  Of course I thought it would open up at plus odds because it should of, well what do you Odessa's books open it right around where I figured they might at +205..  I figured 5dimes and thegreek would open around the same, but boy was I mistaken, the under is at -105 and -115 at my books.  Probably won't play it at that price, funny thing is the under is still +205 at Sportsbook.

The 9 rounds to 3 is pretty funny. I can easily argue that he lost the first 2 and the last two rounds. He barely contested any of them. That kid is getting knocked out when they give him a shot.

 

I expected around +140 to +160. +205 wasn't actually the opener, +250 was. I took that and bought back to be honest. I make a few hundred as long as the fight happens.

Haha, you might want to bet a lot then because money can't buy you happiness. You're doomed to more Tarver main event Showtime cards.

God I hate that guy. . .  I almost hope I lose.

 

I agree with you,i told everyone here some weeks ago that the Cotto fight will go over 9.5 rounds,theres no doubt in my mind.Gomez has a decent quick jab, very good chin and is in better shape than in any contender fight, and he has a good strategy, that maybe wont work as they think but if Cotto ko Gomez would be late, but im sure it will be over 9 rounds.The play here is over 9.5 +130. 

I'm really jealous now, +250!  Good move and I can't blame you for taking the free dough.  I just think Smith's legs are a bit on the gone side. I watched his fight with Bundrage again a few weeks ago before K9 fought Ouma and even though it was a close fight his legs just didn't seem right to me and he will need them tonight.  I am not going to play it at the current prices though because I still think the under should be the plus side.

I don't really want to get into a long discussion about this under/over again because I've said a lot already.  But on a couple of your points.  Malinaggi is super slick and a mover, Gomez isn't; he doesn't really have quick feet and his style to slug it out at times.  Judah had the power to get Cotto's respect and even hurt him early; Gomez doesn't.  Gomez is a bit susceptible to the body also, Feliciano dug in a bit and wore him out; plus Cotto is the shorter man here which is good for fighters who go to the body a lot.

I also want Glen to win, super nice guy.  Talked with him at a card in January, classy fighter.  I won't be playing him, though I do think he could give Dawson so rough moments late.

No solid takes here on the Shobox card tonight; I don't think I have ever seen De Leon and I've seen McGirt but never against a live body so hard to lay the chalk.  Edgar's got a shot as the dog, but he's been brought along slowly for a reason; he's really not that good.  I have a feeling Lopez wins a close decision, though I only played the draw small.

LOL, I don't think Tarver has too many fans.

Yep, you told us all about Gomez's heart and toughness carrying him through; JK.  I don't mind over 9 as long as it's in the first half of the tenth, though I may have a stroke.

What are you taking out on the over?  I remember you saying you had already hit it for $500.  Are we going to see "Smart Bets" return again? I wish you good luck, just not on this one.

Added....
.20 of a unit on Lopez-Santana Draw (+2500)

1.1 unit on Tarver (-110) vs Woods
.5 of a unit on Tarver by decision (+200) (Greek version)
.10 of a unit on Tarver-Woods Draw (+1900)

.20 of a unit on Lopez-Santana Draw (+2500)

Close, but no cigar.  That would have been big.  I knew Farhood having the fight a draw was a jink before the official decision.  That first draw card definitely got me seeing dollar signs though.  I'm sure all three gave the 10th to Santana so I needed Lopez to win that I would have been smiling. 

I got home and picked up the fight in the 5th and WOW!  I thought Santana hurt Lopez with a body shot in the 7th, Santana looked down and out in the 8th going down twice, and then he really put a hurting on Lopez in the last two.  Great fight, that draw cash would have been sweet though.

Yeah, great bet. That fight was a draw. I scored it pretty closely and I don't know where they came up with a 7th round for Santana. I was hoping for a draw at best and I thought he got there with really corageous rounds in the 9th and 10th. He looked legit hurt and came back with a will to win. Overall, one of the best Shobox cards in recent memory.

Well, i got $1000 bet on the over 9.5 +130. I need this one plus dawson-Johnson over and tarver - woods over to hit my 10 team parlay that pays $8,500.  I ve been pretty busy this week,my only bet this week is the over 9.5 only, so no smarts bets this week.Thank you Fullbright, good luck. If i lose im done i think.

Appreciate it.  I was busy this afternoon, but it reads like it was a brutal KO.  The nerves are kicking in a bit for this Cotto fight.