good write up for the big fight!!

Manny Pacquiao/Oscar De La Hoya under 9½ +1.60
De La Hoya wins in rounds 1-3 +1499

Manny started his career at 106 lbs. in 1995 and is now moving all the way up to 147 for this so-called “Dream Match” against a much bigger man in the “Golden Boy”, Oscar De La Hoya. He is giving up about four inches in height and six inches in reach, which is huge. The Philippino sensation is moving up three weight classes after fighting for the first time at 135 in his last, when he wore down the light hitting and over-matched David Diaz. He looked much the smaller man to me and is now going to look ‘tiny’ next to De La Hoya. Prior to that, the “Pacman/Destroyer” never fought higher than 130. This move all the way up to 147, after having just moved up to 135, all without any tune-up(s) yet is about the most crazy and ridiculous thing I’ve ever seen. Hatton was in the ‘wrong weight class’ vs. Collazo and Mayweather and that was just 7 pounds higher than his normal fighting weight. What Manny is doing or attempting is insane i.m.o. There are weight classes for reasons and his frame is just too small and his internal organs as well…plus zero ‘tune-ups’ yet, OMG!!! De La Hoya was the 1995 Ring Magazine’s “Fighter of the Year” and in 1997 was rated the world’s best “Pound-for-Pound”. He has won 10 world titles in 6 different weight classes and was an Olympic Gold Medallist so don’t get too swept up with all this talk of ‘Manny this’ and ‘Manny that’! People are calling Oscar ‘old’ at 35, even though that’s not really considered ‘old’ today. Plus, he has probably had his best camp in years and will be totally ‘amped up’ for this mega-event. Hopkins just made mincemeat out of Pavlik…and he’s 43 or 44…so there!
Of course Manny is one of the best out there today, but it’s a definite ‘stretch’ to call him the ‘Pound-for-Pound King’ when he was life-or-death twice against Juan Manuel Marquez and could’ve easily gone 0 and 2 rather than 1-0-1 in those two fights, with the first one being a draw and the second a split decision given to Pacquiao. I felt Marquez won both and Juan Manuel said he is willing to fight Manny again anywhere and at any weight…an honest and humble sort, he’s also calling Oscar to win this fight; no surprise there. Marquez is so much smaller than Oscar and yet his jab landed on Manny frequently and he hurt him and had him cut up as well (Manny is very prone to cuts over the eye). J.M.M. had always fought in the 120’s and only fought at 135 for the first time in his career when he beat Casamayor in September. If an aging Marquez could give Pacquiao so much trouble, then what will Oscar do to him? We shall soon find out. A faded Oscar Larios at 129 lbs also rocked Pacquiao pretty good at one point back in 2006. Sure, Manny.looked good annihilating a washed up Erik Morales in the third of their trilogy and Marco Antonio Barrera back in Oct./07 but he is now going up against a giant compared to those two faded super featherweights! Manny has never been hard to hit and he says that he has worked on tightening his defense. He better do a lot of tightening before this Saturday night…that’s all I can say!
Oscar has fought as high as 155 lbs. and was right in that fight with Bernard Hopkins. He is a natural lefty who fights in an orthodox stance and has a very hard and dangerous jab and left, especially the hook. When he was a kid, he used to push grown men away with his left! How quickly people forget what he did to ‘Ferocious’ Fernando Vargas and most recently to Ricardo Mayorga. Everybody is talking about how he has a tendency to ‘fade’ in the late rounds. While there may be some truth to that, he has trained harder than ever for this fight and he usually fights ‘up or down’ to the competition. He likely wanted to ‘go some rounds’ against Stevie Forbes and most probably didn’t take that ‘tune-up’ very seriously at all. As well, Forbes has a chin of granite and even Berto couldn’t knock him out. Forbes had been fighting at the least 138 lbs. since 2004 and was never knocked down in his career, let alone ‘out’. In contrast, Pacquiao has been knocked out in 1996 and 1999 at 110 and 113 lbs…it’s a little while ago but still significant.
Oscar went through a long legal nightmare when Manny double-crossed him (Golden Boy Promotions) and ended up signing with Bob Arum. Oscar has said for some time now that this fight is very ‘personal’ for him and that Manny will have to pay for what he did. De La Hoya has said that anything less than a knockout would be like a loss to him. Oscar is a tremendous ‘finisher’ and once he gets Manny hurt he will go for the kill. The fight is in Vegas and the referee, Tony Weeks, is not one to let a fight go on if one of the combatants is hurt or taking too much punishment. They will be wearing 8 ounce gloves, rather than 10, and will both likely be using the ‘Reyes’, which are known as the ‘puncher’s gloves’…geez, can any more ‘angles’ be on our side…I think not.
Manny is going to be coming right after Oscar in an attempt to let him know that he is in for a fight, which is another good thing for us. I’m calling it one of the biggest ‘big fight’ mismatches in history. If, for some reason, Oscar is not ‘on’, then we will still cash because the Pacman would likely then rampage right through him. That is very unlikely, however, as Oscar has never really been in any ‘wars’ and has trained meticulously for this one; even enlisting Marquez’s trainer, ‘Nacho’ Beristain and calling 87 yr. old Angelo Dundee out of retirement to offer his advice and wisdom. OK, enough yacking. This fight is NOT going to going past the listed total and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see it end within the first three rounds and that’s how we are going to play it.

Play: Manny Pacquiao/Oscar De La Hoya under 9½ +1.60 (Risking 3 units).

Play: De La Hoya wins in round 1-3 +1499 (Risking .5 unit)