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#1
I find it moderately interesting that so many people are backing Hopkins. Why? Exactly HOW will he be able to get the same beneficial circumstances (Pascal fizzled after coming out strong, BHop used his crafty style to steal/win rounds) AND improve on his performance?
Hopkins approached the first fight well. Smile, stay under the radar, wear grandpa sweaters, etc. However, his approach this time is not only bad, it's horrendous. Why would you want to rattle the cage of Pascal? Why are you attempting to induce a firefight with all the verbal sparring? That is the last thing Hopkins should get into, since his mind might be willing, but his body is unable.
The "Hopkins is 5-1 in rematches" is thrown around as if that statistic suggests that Hopkins makes great adjustments the second time around. I'm not so sure, since I feel the lone defeat is a key example to how this fight will play out. That fight? The rematch with a then 27 year old, prime Jermain Taylor.
Taylor started off strong, banking most of the early rounds with his aggression and hard, wild shots. Hopkins let the young challenger fade a bit before turning it on in the later rounds, often stealing uneventful rounds with flurries in the final minute of each round. Taylor won the fight via split decision, even though he didn't look particularly great in doing so.
The second fight was scored close (115-113 on all three cards) but Taylor had a much better approach and was never in any danger of losing the fight. Taylor was fully aware of Hopkin's strategy and made the necessary adjustments. This time it was clear that the younger, stronger fighter was on a slightly higher physical level than a then 40 year old Hopkins. That is EXACTLY what I'm expecting Pascal this time around.
I'm expecting in all action fight in which Bernard won't be able to deter Pascal from landing the harder and more effective blows. As unique as Hopkins is, you can't fight time. Hopkins has talked his way into a gunfight, yet he is the one carrying the knife.
While I'm not expecting a blowout, I am expecting a clear win for Pascal. My plays for the fight/weekend are as follows:
Pascal -130, 20.5 units
Pascal wins by KO or unanimous dec., +118, 5 units
Either fighter knocked down, +165, 5 units
Dawson/Diaconu goes the distance, -160, 4.8 units
RJJ/Lebedev over 7.5, -105, 5.25 units
Sammy Gutierrez, -145, 7.25 units
Montes/Rojas won't go the distance, -160, 8 units
Fun parlay: Pascal ITD +480, Diaconu pts handicap, +22.5, -115,
Groves/Degale under 9.5, -160. 1.3 units to win 21.6
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