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    All Forums | Boxing

    Marquez vs Mayweather Prediction

    walktheline
    nuttyrich
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    walktheline
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    Posted: Sep. 15, 2009 - 3:57 AM ET #1

    My money will be on Mayweather ITD (+169) and a splash on Mayweather wins in rounds 4-6.

    Sometimes you have to look past the current fight to understand the big picture. It's no secret that Mayweather wants Pacquiao, and vice versa. In fact, just yesterday we were treated to a piece in the Yahoo! News Philippines - "Pacquiao: Mayweather Showdown Inevitable." Estimates are that Pacquiao would earn between 25-30 million for the fight, and I'm sure Mayweather would also get well north of 20 million.

    Why is this important? Simple. It would be the fight of the decade, and one that will probably bring in more money than any other like it in boxing history. However, there are two very big "IFS" that could stop this from happening.

    1. Mayweather is defeated by Marquez, or he doesn't look so great in winning. Mayweather has one thing to prove in this fight, and that is to show that he is ready for Pacquiao. Imagine the buzz if he was to destroy Marquez quickly with an un-Floyd like show of aggression and power? A man that many believe has a victory over Pacquiao, if not two.

    It would sell me a Pacquiao/Mayweather ticket seconds after the fight. Roger Mayweather, Floyd's trainer and uncle, might have tipped their hand. In a recent 24/7 episode, Roger was questioned about his strategy for the fight. Mayweather non-chalantly said he didn't need one, but when pressed further, he said "who knows, maybe we'll bum rush his ass."

    2. Pacquiao gets beat by Cotto, or squeaks one out. I would rather see Cotto/Mayweather, but for my own reasons. Everyone (the ticket and pay-per-view buying public) wants to see Floyd and Manny get it on. Pacquiao will struggle holding up his end, but he'll come out on top.

    Back to the task at hand.. Marquez is a great fighter, but has moved up well past his optimal weight and has bitten off more than he can chew. He was losing the fight to Juan Diaz, but made the adjustments necessary to win. That's fine, but I still can't get the picture of Juan Diaz landing a left hook and buckling Marquez.

    Marquez is built to counterpunch - something he isn't fast enough to do against Mayweather. Mayweather will get off first, and simply move out of the way looking for his own counterpunch. If Marquez is aggressive, like his camp is suggesting he might be, he'll be in for even more trouble. Being aggressive against a stronger fighter with an elite jab doesn't work out very well.

    Might be a good fight the first few rounds. Once Mayweather times Marquez and starts to frustrate the proud Mexican, it's over. Either Floyd knocks him out clean, or Marquez goes for broke knowing he can't win a boxing match and gets knocked out that way. Floyd wins big, leaving Pacquiao to hold up his end of the deal.







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    My money will be on Mayweather ITD (+169) and a splash on Mayweather wins in rounds 4-6.

    Sometimes you have to look past the current fight to understand the big picture. It's no secret that Mayweather wants Pacquiao, and vice versa. In fact, just yesterday we were treated to a piece in the Yahoo! News Philippines - "Pacquiao: Mayweather Showdown Inevitable." Estimates are that Pacquiao would earn between 25-30 million for the fight, and I'm sure Mayweather would also get well north of 20 million.

    Why is this important? Simple. It would be the fight of the decade, and one that will probably bring in more money than any other like it in boxing history. However, there are two very big "IFS" that could stop this from happening.

    1. Mayweather is defeated by Marquez, or he doesn't look so great in winning. Mayweather has one thing to prove in this fight, and that is to show that he is ready for Pacquiao. Imagine the buzz if he was to destroy Marquez quickly with an un-Floyd like show of aggression and power? A man that many believe has a victory over Pacquiao, if not two.

    It would sell me a Pacquiao/Mayweather ticket seconds after the fight. Roger Mayweather, Floyd's trainer and uncle, might have tipped their hand. In a recent 24/7 episode, Roger was questioned about his strategy for the fight. Mayweather non-chalantly said he didn't need one, but when pressed further, he said "who knows, maybe we'll bum rush his ass."

    2. Pacquiao gets beat by Cotto, or squeaks one out. I would rather see Cotto/Mayweather, but for my own reasons. Everyone (the ticket and pay-per-view buying public) wants to see Floyd and Manny get it on. Pacquiao will struggle holding up his end, but he'll come out on top.

    Back to the task at hand.. Marquez is a great fighter, but has moved up well past his optimal weight and has bitten off more than he can chew. He was losing the fight to Juan Diaz, but made the adjustments necessary to win. That's fine, but I still can't get the picture of Juan Diaz landing a left hook and buckling Marquez.

    Marquez is built to counterpunch - something he isn't fast enough to do against Mayweather. Mayweather will get off first, and simply move out of the way looking for his own counterpunch. If Marquez is aggressive, like his camp is suggesting he might be, he'll be in for even more trouble. Being aggressive against a stronger fighter with an elite jab doesn't work out very well.

    Might be a good fight the first few rounds. Once Mayweather times Marquez and starts to frustrate the proud Mexican, it's over. Either Floyd knocks him out clean, or Marquez goes for broke knowing he can't win a boxing match and gets knocked out that way. Floyd wins big, leaving Pacquiao to hold up his end of the deal.







     
    nuttyrich
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    Posted: Sep. 15, 2009 - 11:06 PM ET #2

    Great write up I see it the same way, it's why Floyd CHOSE Marquez, to force a showdown with pac-man.

    If he dominates Marquez even w/o a knock out it will guarantee him a 50/50 purse against Pac-man.

    Marquez is best at 130, he's a warrior and a good counter puncher.

    If you look at when Marquez gets dropped, it's when he becomes TOO aggressive, it's the Mexican in him.

    This time it will not be a brawler he is hitting, it's a  man playing peek a boo and Marquez cannot handle a guy like that.

    Especially at his age and the weight he is giving up.

    Either way I lose no respect for Marquez, he will give it his all and make it as tough as a fight as he can. Floyd will wear him down.

    How about Chris John.. only -320 he got robbed in Houston, but this time it's in Vegas. I see him winning easily.. maybe worth a parlay bet at 5dimes! Chris John and Floyd!
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    Great write up I see it the same way, it's why Floyd CHOSE Marquez, to force a showdown with pac-man.

    If he dominates Marquez even w/o a knock out it will guarantee him a 50/50 purse against Pac-man.

    Marquez is best at 130, he's a warrior and a good counter puncher.

    If you look at when Marquez gets dropped, it's when he becomes TOO aggressive, it's the Mexican in him.

    This time it will not be a brawler he is hitting, it's a  man playing peek a boo and Marquez cannot handle a guy like that.

    Especially at his age and the weight he is giving up.

    Either way I lose no respect for Marquez, he will give it his all and make it as tough as a fight as he can. Floyd will wear him down.

    How about Chris John.. only -320 he got robbed in Houston, but this time it's in Vegas. I see him winning easily.. maybe worth a parlay bet at 5dimes! Chris John and Floyd!
     
    STEELERS in 07
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    Posted: Sep. 16, 2009 - 1:54 AM ET #3

    Marquez is an excellent fighter. But just cant see how this isn't set up for PAC-MAN vs. Flloyd showdown.
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    Marquez is an excellent fighter. But just cant see how this isn't set up for PAC-MAN vs. Flloyd showdown.
     
    G8RB8
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    Posted: Sep. 16, 2009 - 1:38 PM ET #4

    Agree walk

    GL
    Bagel Sandwiches Suck
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    Agree walk

    GL
     
    MoneyShot
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    Posted: Sep. 16, 2009 - 5:43 PM ET #5

    Both manny and pretty boy should win their respected fights but for sure its no guarantee.... upsets happen in sports, u never know what can happen.
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    Both manny and pretty boy should win their respected fights but for sure its no guarantee.... upsets happen in sports, u never know what can happen.
     
    ABoogie
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    Posted: Sep. 17, 2009 - 12:42 AM ET #6

    I'll bet my house mayweather wins by KO.   He is too fast and too strong.  there shouldn't even be a question.   39-0 speaks for itself.
     
    I'll betting money may knock out marquez.  Good value in that bet.  I bet floyd in his last fight against Hatton look what happen.  
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    I'll bet my house mayweather wins by KO.   He is too fast and too strong.  there shouldn't even be a question.   39-0 speaks for itself.
     
    I'll betting money may knock out marquez.  Good value in that bet.  I bet floyd in his last fight against Hatton look what happen.  
     
    NJDevils
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    Posted: Sep. 17, 2009 - 1:32 AM ET #7

    JMM is a million times better than Hatton... Hatton is a glorified club fighter

    Floyd may still be too big and fast but I wouldnt use the Hatton fight as a barometer
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    JMM is a million times better than Hatton... Hatton is a glorified club fighter

    Floyd may still be too big and fast but I wouldnt use the Hatton fight as a barometer
     
    bullion24K
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    Posted: Sep. 17, 2009 - 11:29 PM ET #8

    mayweather  loses im taking marquez  by KO
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    mayweather  loses im taking marquez  by KO
     
    BenLinus6178
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    Posted: Sep. 18, 2009 - 1:37 AM ET #9

    Picking a winner in this one couldn't be easier. Marquez will take the decision or possibly get a late stoppage. Not even Oscar's prediction of a Marquez victory can jinx this outcome!

    Floyd is way overrated and has never faced a talented fighter the likes of Marquez. I mean really who has Floyd ever fought?? Oscar was old, Baldomir was slow, and Hatton lacks a chin. Can you say padded record?

    Meanwhile Marquez has taken the pound for pound champ to the limit twice and should have won both times. 

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    Picking a winner in this one couldn't be easier. Marquez will take the decision or possibly get a late stoppage. Not even Oscar's prediction of a Marquez victory can jinx this outcome!

    Floyd is way overrated and has never faced a talented fighter the likes of Marquez. I mean really who has Floyd ever fought?? Oscar was old, Baldomir was slow, and Hatton lacks a chin. Can you say padded record?

    Meanwhile Marquez has taken the pound for pound champ to the limit twice and should have won both times. 

     
    NJDevils
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    Posted: Sep. 18, 2009 - 2:23 AM ET #10

    Ben

    I was coming in here to post that his last 3 fights over the span of almost 3 years were against Hatton, DeLahoya and Baldomir...all in my opinion scrubs/has beens

    the ones before that
    Zab Judah, Henry Brusselis, Gatti, Corley....

    I am taking a shot with JMM here...and I am one of those people that though Manny beat him twice so I will not even offer him winning either of those as a reason, but he was in those fights

    I know he is moving up and the old adage and great big man beats a great little man may apply but I think that this is as big a step up in class for Floyd as it is for JMM

    Getting basically 4-1 with a guy that is top 3 definitely top 5  P4P vs a guy that hasnt fought in a year seems like a good deal


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    Ben

    I was coming in here to post that his last 3 fights over the span of almost 3 years were against Hatton, DeLahoya and Baldomir...all in my opinion scrubs/has beens

    the ones before that
    Zab Judah, Henry Brusselis, Gatti, Corley....

    I am taking a shot with JMM here...and I am one of those people that though Manny beat him twice so I will not even offer him winning either of those as a reason, but he was in those fights

    I know he is moving up and the old adage and great big man beats a great little man may apply but I think that this is as big a step up in class for Floyd as it is for JMM

    Getting basically 4-1 with a guy that is top 3 definitely top 5  P4P vs a guy that hasnt fought in a year seems like a good deal


     
    walktheline
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    Posted: Sep. 18, 2009 - 3:00 AM ET #11

    Quote Originally Posted by NJDevils:

    Ben

    I was coming in here to post that his last 3 fights over the span of almost 3 years were against Hatton, DeLahoya and Baldomir...all in my opinion scrubs/has beens

    the ones before that
    Zab Judah, Henry Brusselis, Gatti, Corley....

    I am taking a shot with JMM here...and I am one of those people that though Manny beat him twice so I will not even offer him winning either of those as a reason, but he was in those fights

    I know he is moving up and the old adage and great big man beats a great little man may apply but I think that this is as big a step up in class for Floyd as it is for JMM

    Getting basically 4-1 with a guy that is top 3 definitely top 5  P4P vs a guy that hasnt fought in a year seems like a good deal


    It would matter if we based Mayweather's ability based on his opponents. However, we don't. Why? Because he is the best fighter since a young Roy Jones Jr, and that might not even be doing him justice.

    Seems like a good deal? Why? He has no chance at winning. JMM's top 5 P4P was based on wins over......................... exactly. Nobody, much worse than Floyd, imo.

    He has beat Barrera, but who else? Casamayor? In a fight that took him way too long to get the job done? Rocky Juarez? Yeah, THAT Rocky Juarez. Did he beat John.. maybe. However, he still didn't get the win. Jimrex Jaca? Really? Juan Diaz? In a fight he was losing, and big? Victor Polo? Terdsak Jandaeng?

    Hatton, DLH, Baldomir (only to take the belt) Judah, Mitchell, Gatti, Bruseles (title eliminator) Corley

    Only one fighter here has a padded record. Actually, if Manny finished him in the first round of their first fight, we would never mention JMM's name. The disparity isn't just in size - it's in talent, speed, power, and CALIBER. JMM is a B+ fighter in his optimal weight class. He is fighting an A+ fighter two classes above his own. It is what it is, and you need to see it as such instead of looking for bullshit reasons not to. This one is a slam dunk.

     

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    Quote Originally Posted by NJDevils:

    Ben

    I was coming in here to post that his last 3 fights over the span of almost 3 years were against Hatton, DeLahoya and Baldomir...all in my opinion scrubs/has beens

    the ones before that
    Zab Judah, Henry Brusselis, Gatti, Corley....

    I am taking a shot with JMM here...and I am one of those people that though Manny beat him twice so I will not even offer him winning either of those as a reason, but he was in those fights

    I know he is moving up and the old adage and great big man beats a great little man may apply but I think that this is as big a step up in class for Floyd as it is for JMM

    Getting basically 4-1 with a guy that is top 3 definitely top 5  P4P vs a guy that hasnt fought in a year seems like a good deal


    It would matter if we based Mayweather's ability based on his opponents. However, we don't. Why? Because he is the best fighter since a young Roy Jones Jr, and that might not even be doing him justice.

    Seems like a good deal? Why? He has no chance at winning. JMM's top 5 P4P was based on wins over......................... exactly. Nobody, much worse than Floyd, imo.

    He has beat Barrera, but who else? Casamayor? In a fight that took him way too long to get the job done? Rocky Juarez? Yeah, THAT Rocky Juarez. Did he beat John.. maybe. However, he still didn't get the win. Jimrex Jaca? Really? Juan Diaz? In a fight he was losing, and big? Victor Polo? Terdsak Jandaeng?

    Hatton, DLH, Baldomir (only to take the belt) Judah, Mitchell, Gatti, Bruseles (title eliminator) Corley

    Only one fighter here has a padded record. Actually, if Manny finished him in the first round of their first fight, we would never mention JMM's name. The disparity isn't just in size - it's in talent, speed, power, and CALIBER. JMM is a B+ fighter in his optimal weight class. He is fighting an A+ fighter two classes above his own. It is what it is, and you need to see it as such instead of looking for bullshit reasons not to. This one is a slam dunk.

     

     
    skipper21
    skipper21
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    Posted: Sep. 18, 2009 - 12:36 PM ET #12

    Marquez in a shocker!   Mayweather gets KO''d in the 10th.
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    Marquez in a shocker!   Mayweather gets KO''d in the 10th.
     
    NJDevils
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    Posted: Sep. 19, 2009 - 2:26 AM ET #13

    I just have a feeling walktheline. Castillo wasnt the fastest hardest hitting guy out there and I thought he beat Floyd the 1st fight. I think Marquez will win. I have been wrong before but actually lately Ive been pretty good.
    Upsets happen and I think one happens here




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    I just have a feeling walktheline. Castillo wasnt the fastest hardest hitting guy out there and I thought he beat Floyd the 1st fight. I think Marquez will win. I have been wrong before but actually lately Ive been pretty good.
    Upsets happen and I think one happens here




     
    walktheline
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    Posted: Sep. 19, 2009 - 2:43 AM ET #14

    Quote Originally Posted by NJDevils:

    I just have a feeling walktheline. Castillo wasnt the fastest hardest hitting guy out there and I thought he beat Floyd the 1st fight. I think Marquez will win. I have been wrong before but actually lately Ive been pretty good.
    Upsets happen and I think one happens here






    Love the av Devils.. you know, I can see reasons why you like Marquez. You have been on point as of late, and I wish you well on your wager. However, we are going to have to disagree here. I just don't see it. Trust me when I tell you I ALWAYS look for cracks to take the shot on the dog. This just isn't one of them.
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    Quote Originally Posted by NJDevils:

    I just have a feeling walktheline. Castillo wasnt the fastest hardest hitting guy out there and I thought he beat Floyd the 1st fight. I think Marquez will win. I have been wrong before but actually lately Ive been pretty good.
    Upsets happen and I think one happens here






    Love the av Devils.. you know, I can see reasons why you like Marquez. You have been on point as of late, and I wish you well on your wager. However, we are going to have to disagree here. I just don't see it. Trust me when I tell you I ALWAYS look for cracks to take the shot on the dog. This just isn't one of them.
     
    NJDevils
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    Posted: Sep. 19, 2009 - 3:06 AM ET #15

    If I win my bet maybe I will do a urine toast to celebrate
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    If I win my bet maybe I will do a urine toast to celebrate
     
    walktheline
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    Posted: Sep. 19, 2009 - 5:50 AM ET #16

    My final wagers...

    Marquez/Mayweather won't start round 11, (+173) 400/692
    Mayweather wins in rounds 4-6, 50/518

    I've concluded that i would rather have both fighters covered via KO than a knockout by Floyd through 12 rounds at the same price. MUCH better wager. Splash on where I would see Floyd stopping JMM.

    Katsidis ITD. +170
    John ITD, +500
    JMM/Mayweather won't start round 10

    100/6,007

    That's all for now.
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    My final wagers...

    Marquez/Mayweather won't start round 11, (+173) 400/692
    Mayweather wins in rounds 4-6, 50/518

    I've concluded that i would rather have both fighters covered via KO than a knockout by Floyd through 12 rounds at the same price. MUCH better wager. Splash on where I would see Floyd stopping JMM.

    Katsidis ITD. +170
    John ITD, +500
    JMM/Mayweather won't start round 10

    100/6,007

    That's all for now.
     
    newyorker35
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    Posted: Sep. 19, 2009 - 9:06 PM ET #17

    New to betting boxing...what does ITD mean?
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    New to betting boxing...what does ITD mean?
     
     
    LRM704
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    Posted: Sep. 20, 2009 - 1:11 AM ET #18

    inside the distance
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    inside the distance
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