Sometimes you have to look past the current fight to understand the big picture. It's no secret that Mayweather wants Pacquiao, and vice versa. In fact, just yesterday we were treated to a piece in the Yahoo! News Philippines - "Pacquiao: Mayweather Showdown Inevitable." Estimates are that Pacquiao would earn between 25-30 million for the fight, and I'm sure Mayweather would also get well north of 20 million.
Why is this important? Simple. It would be the fight of the decade, and one that will probably bring in more money than any other like it in boxing history. However, there are two very big "IFS" that could stop this from happening.
1. Mayweather is defeated by Marquez, or he doesn't look so great in winning. Mayweather has one thing to prove in this fight, and that is to show that he is ready for Pacquiao. Imagine the buzz if he was to destroy Marquez quickly with an un-Floyd like show of aggression and power? A man that many believe has a victory over Pacquiao, if not two.
It would sell me a Pacquiao/Mayweather ticket seconds after the fight. Roger Mayweather, Floyd's trainer and uncle, might have tipped their hand. In a recent 24/7 episode, Roger was questioned about his strategy for the fight. Mayweather non-chalantly said he didn't need one, but when pressed further, he said "who knows, maybe we'll bum rush his ass."
2. Pacquiao gets beat by Cotto, or squeaks one out. I would rather see Cotto/Mayweather, but for my own reasons. Everyone (the ticket and pay-per-view buying public) wants to see Floyd and Manny get it on. Pacquiao will struggle holding up his end, but he'll come out on top.
Back to the task at hand.. Marquez is a great fighter, but has moved up well past his optimal weight and has bitten off more than he can chew. He was losing the fight to Juan Diaz, but made the adjustments necessary to win. That's fine, but I still can't get the picture of Juan Diaz landing a left hook and buckling Marquez.
Marquez is built to counterpunch - something he isn't fast enough to do against Mayweather. Mayweather will get off first, and simply move out of the way looking for his own counterpunch. If Marquez is aggressive, like his camp is suggesting he might be, he'll be in for even more trouble. Being aggressive against a stronger fighter with an elite jab doesn't work out very well.
Might be a good fight the first few rounds. Once Mayweather times Marquez and starts to frustrate the proud Mexican, it's over. Either Floyd knocks him out clean, or Marquez goes for broke knowing he can't win a boxing match and gets knocked out that way. Floyd wins big, leaving Pacquiao to hold up his end of the deal.