Martinez is a LOCK

does this mean youre going to stop posting here if you lose?

 if so, that sucks.

im taking the position of soulpurpose and will simply be a fan with an action play. probably SM KO and jr +190.

if i remember correctly, mack won a house on the chavez/lee fight. perhaps he can spot you a coupleof  months if this doesnt go your way.

after six rounds if this fight is even you are going to be in a bad spot. chavez should finish stronger and then you will already have one judge against you(adelaide byrd). to make matters worse, SM has been overtly pernicious in his opinion of sulaiman and the wbc, something that probably wont fare well for him if this were to go to the cards.

SM threw a total of 686 against a fresh-out-of rehab KP(come forward style with more power than jr.), a fight he was losing up until the cut in the ninth round. the majority of his success and activity(9-12) was after KP was hindered by the blood impairing his vision.

chavez threw 796 against zbik(same fast hands and movement as SM but with less power) so it is hard to make a concrete case that SM will out-throw JR.

if SM cannot outhrow and outwork jr. i think its safe to say that youre going to need a KO or a knockdown(s) to win here.

thats a lot to ask for a LOCK play.

im leaning +170 under 11.5,  jr decision+371 and SM ko/tko +300.

i played it at matchbook with a jr. win at +190 and then hedged it with sergio win -120 at my mexican book. im now going to play the props of SM +300 KO and jr. decision+ 371 with some of the profits.

chavez "should finish stronger" but as i stated on another thread this is SM's signature fight and i dont think conditioning will be a factor. what i am thinking is the accumulation of jr's body shots(jr at this stage is arguably one of the best body punchers in the sport) will be what allows chavez to finish stronger(this admittedly happened with zbik and chavez is a better fighter now).

my main concern here is the judging and the bias that i believe will go against SM if this fight goes to the cards. the disparity in skillset could very well transpire fight night but i have a lessor opinion of sergio than you and i think that julio is much, much better than dzinzurik(154), barker or macklin.

those three guys wouldve been gatekeepers in the 90's.

This fight has "ridiculous/fixed decision" written all over it.  Boxing has made goodmoney off of Martinez and now they will feel it may be time to move on to a legendary name and make a new revenue generating stream. 

As another poster stated...

im leaning +170 under 11.5,  jr decision+371 and SM ko/tko +300.

PERFECT way to play this fight. 

Even if Sergio wins 8-4, I can still see Jr. getting a BS split decision.  The other outcome is Sergio stops himin rounds 9, 10 or 11.   

that mexican book i use had jr as the favorite at -130 and in the last half hour sm went from -110 to -150.

never seen anything like this before at this book with a line going against a mexican fighter. im assuming this is the heavy money coming in hard for SM.

youre looking good, buddy.