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Mathematics of Gambling

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
Can someone tell me how to equate someone's "likelihood of winning" based on odds. For example, if a sportsbook has a fight at even odds both sides, then, its a 50/50 chance according to the sportsbooks. I'm wondering for future reference. Oftentimes I tell myself "I can see fighter A winning 7 out of 10 fights(hypothetically)with fighter B", meaning he has a 70 percent chance in MY mind. What would "the line" look like for a favorite that has a 70 percent chance of winning? What's the formula to find it.? I feel this can help everyone in determining VALUE.
 
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Posted: #2
 
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Posted: #3

Well 75% would === 3/4

 

That would mean the favorite fighter should be 3-1 in odds to win. So if your looking to lay the favorite, anything less then 3-1 would be value. Of course if you could lay 6-5... that would be great value & probably worth a wager, if you think your line is more accurate then the odds-maker. I rounded everything off for the sake of simplicity.

 

 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by Redlad:

Well 75% would === 3/4

 

That would mean the favorite fighter should be 3-1 in odds to win. So if your looking to lay the favorite, anything less then 3-1 would be value. Of course if you could lay 6-5... that would be great value & probably worth a wager, if you think your line is more accurate then the odds-maker. I rounded everything off for the sake of simplicity.

 

I appreciate the help, But what's the formula?

 
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Posted: #5
I see it now. 7 out of 10 fights would be 7/3 odds because it has to add up to 10 in this case. 8 out of 10 fights would be 8/2 odds, 9 out of 10 fights would be 9/1 odds etc... Now how do equate that into an American style gambling line? (not including juice)
 
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Posted: #6

Quote Originally Posted by DatMofoThere85:

I see it now. 7 out of 10 fights would be 7/3 odds because it has to add up to 10 in this case. 8 out of 10 fights would be 8/2 odds, 9 out of 10 fights would be 9/1 odds etc... Now how do equate that into an American style gambling line? (not including juice)

FUCK I'm stupid I see it now... Just make the denominator a 1 and then multiply the numerator to 100. My bad guys.

 
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Posted: #7
+/-233

The line would likely be -250/+210
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by DatMofoThere85:

Oftentimes I tell myself "I can see fighter A winning 7 out of 10 fights(hypothetically)with fighter B", meaning he has a 70 percent chance in MY mind. What would "the line" look like for a favorite that has a 70 percent chance of winning? What's the formula to find it.? I feel this can help everyone in determining VALUE. 

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I see it now. 7 out of 10 fights would be 7/3 odds because it has to add up to 10 in this case. 8 out of 10 fights would be 8/2 odds, 9 out of 10 fights would be 9/1 odds etc... Now how do equate that into an American style gambling line? (not including juice)

I think your problem lies with a fighter beating another fighter x amount of fights out of ten. [7/3 odds is +350 btw]. The base of your formula has to be redefined I think. Why x out of 10 fights against the same guy?






 
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Posted: #9
+350 is wrong, my bad. 7/3 = 3 makes 7 which is like +233?
 
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Posted: #10
When I show fractions, I'm not implying fractional odds but rather how many fights Fighter A would win in relation to Fighter B. For example, I can see Fighter A winning 7 out of 10 fights with Fighter B for a win ratio of 7/3. Now I take the 7/3 fraction and reduce it to make the denominator a 1 and then multiply my new numerator by 100. That's the line -233 (not including juice).
 
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Posted: #11
But, why x out of ten fights? 
 
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Posted: #12

Quote Originally Posted by McNulty:

But, why x out of ten fights? 

That just makes the math alot easier.

You can make it out of 100 too. For example, if I believe Fighter A will win 85 out of 100 fights (for a win ratio of 85/15), I'll reduce this fraction until the denominator is 1 and then multiply my new numerator (which is 5.66667) by 100 for a line that is  -567 (not including juice).

 
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Posted: #13

I can make it easy for you.

Go to https://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tools/Odds+Converter.aspx

Put your probability of winning in the box labelled "Implied Probability", hit convert and your desired answers comes up in the "US Odds" box.

 

 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by chiadog:

I can make it easy for you.

Go to https://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tools/Odds+Converter.aspx

Put your probability of winning in the box labelled "Implied Probability", hit convert and your desired answers comes up in the "US Odds" box.

 

I wish I had this earlier

 
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Posted: #15
OK. The Vegas odds have nothing to do with predicting any outcom except how the public is betting.
 
 
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Posted: #16

Quote Originally Posted by Skipbone:

OK. The Vegas odds have nothing to do with predicting any outcom except how the public is betting.

True but knowing how to equate the odds with your own measure of probability will help you determine VALUE.

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