Mayweather v Ortiz

1) Do i think Ortiz has value if you can get him at plus 550? Yes- he is a semi live dog and isnt some washed up fighter (Mosley)- he is strong, he is pretty active, he is big--at that price, how can you really take Floyd at 1-10?

2) Am I the least bit surprised at these odds? No I'm not. Ortiz is not a name and everyone, including 99% of public casual bettor would be all over Floyd if the price was lower (and still will try to find a way to get floyd at a manageable vig thru some type of prop bet).

3) Still waiting to find out that supposed shop that is offering Floyd by UD at a low price.

melvin23: So you would take Ortiz +550 as a hedge with Floyd to win by decision? I don't like Floyd on a decision here. Many things can lead to an early stoppage, especially Ortiz's forward attack and his face will absorb more shots than his gloves. Swelling or a cut is likely in this fight. I took Ortiz/Berto over and Mosley/Pacquiao over. Ortiz I had heavy so if he KO's Berto early I still would have won big. You have to be cautious with fights were one or both fighters come forward constantly and secondly Floyd will let his hands fly during times in each round to win the round and keep Ortiz off.

Hi Zouk,
I would think that Floyd would take care of Ortiz. I just havent seen Floyd in much trouble and still think he is a world class fighter (that is content to win on points)- you make some interesting points- I just would think if i was going to put some real money/large wager on it Floyd by UD would be where i'd put my money, but I think that price will be around -5 to -700 which would make it a no play for me.

Floyd by KO in this one. 

Fighters Pacquiao and Mayweather faced at 140+ better who would beat Ortiz at time of fight:

Cotto beats him. The Mosley that fought Floyd beat him. Margartio beats him. Clottey beats him. And Judah probably beats him (might actually be a fun fight).

Look at it from this context. Even before Berto got beaten by Ortiz, I've written in past posts that Berto was an unproven overhyped creation. When people were looking for a possible Berto/Pacman fight I said Berto was undeserving and would get blown out by top welterweights.

From that perspective, what has Ortiz done to warrant such respect? He was knocked on his ass numerous times against Berto and Maidana. He fought tooth and nail against Lamont freaking Peterson. He quit against Maidana.

You'd have to be a big Berto believer to buy into Ortiz as a legitimate elite fighter and you'd have to believe he just turned the corner in his last fight.

If you think the Mosley that fought Floyd could beat Ortiz, I want to be your bookie.

Floyd has not punching power, certainly not on the same level as Maidana and Berto.

Ortiz would easily defeat Cotto, Margarito, Mosley, Judah,(rofl) Clottey, etc. (is he still active?)

I suggest you get in touch with the current states of Floyd and Oritz respectively. Your current view of the weight class (and perennial contenders) is years behind and jaded. Its a mistake you're going to pay for dearly in September.

The question was, is Ortiz the best 140+ fighter that Floyd and Pacquiao has faced so far? So we are comparing Ortiz of right now to the fighters Floyd and Manny faced at the time of their fights... not now. I even made mention of it, "at time of fight." Obviously some of the fighters have digressed since their fights with Pac/PBF.

Mosley was set to face Berto in early 2010 before the Haiti earthquake. Mosley opened as a -180/-200 favorite in that fight. After the cancellation Mosley signed on to fight Floyd.

Berto was a -450/-500 favorite over Ortiz.

Ortiz does not survive round 2 of Mosley/Mayweather. Mayweather has a great great chin.

Prime Clottey and prime Margarito walks Ortiz down and beats him up to a stoppage. You are talking about fights against a couple of strong as oz fighters with granite chins against a fighter with a leaky defense and fragile chin. Ortiz has pop in his punches but its negated against Clottey and Margarito. Bad matchup for Ortiz. He would get son'd.

Are you high? I'm not even going to address how silly it is to compare Ortiz against Clottey and Margarito.

Who fought a "prime" Margarito? Is that during the loaded glove period? Pacquiao didn't. Mayweather has a great chin? Really? Based on what? The only times I remember him actually being tagged with a big shot was against Judah and against Mosley.

Both times he got through it, but was noticeably hurt both times. Everyone said Roy Jones Jr had an acceptable chin, especially after his move to heavyweight. As soon as he started getting hit clean it was game over. In fact, it seemed a bit surreal when Tarver landed that perfect hook. It will feel very similar watching Mayweather get knocked out  or dominated for the first time.

The truth is that Mayweather no longer holds significant advantages over his opponents at 140-147. To continue believing he is this mythical fighter that can't be defeated is silly. He is now in his mid 30's and is very inactive. The days of seeing once in a lifetime speed and agility are going to come to a very abrupt end at some point. The moment that happens and he is forced to "fight" instead of "box" he will be soundly dominated, if not brutally knocked out.

That isn't an assumption, that's a fact.

Ortiz is more polished since Maidana but still green at World Class Level. Mayweather is experienced to the point that he will expose a great deal of Ortiz's weakness. Also, Floyd has no power? He's not a one punch KO artist, but he can do damage to an onrushing weak defense like Ortiz. Just because Floyd plays it safe don't think he can't bring KO power. That's the reason he's hesitant with Manny. He knows he has to hit Manny hard every round leaving himself exposed which he has not done in many years. Hatton he took advantage, picked apart and closed it out. He could have done that in 5 rounds. Also, after such a beating you think Hatton was the same when he fought Manny? A first loss and severe one pays heavy tolls on your mind and body.

Are you kidding me questioning PBF's chin? Floyd's beard is proven. He's been hit with big shots many times, has never really gone down, and has always recovered quickly. You cannot compare the beards of Mayweather, Pacquiao, Clottey, Margarito and Mosley to that of Ortiz. Ortiz has been knocked down more times in the time of his career than all those 5 fighters combined. Any kind of comparison you are trying to make is a joke.

You try to elevate Ortiz's status by pumping up Maidana and Berto. Maidana just got a 12 round majority draw against an over the hill, fighting over his weightclass Morales. Berto doesnt have a A level win and is an HBO concoction. Ortiz's only significant win is against that well packaged creation and he has a loss and a draw against B/B+ fighters.

No one is saying Mayweather or anyone else is invincible. But as of now, it will take a greater class of fighter than Victor Ortiz to beat him.

Stop guessing.  You are way off

Eric, IF floyd opens at -1000, and most think he will win by Decision, then what do you guess the prop would be? you think each one would be -500? I couldnt see it any less than that.

Opening line average probably -750. Floyd will open just under -800, most places will have -700,-750 or -800 and at -750 the reverse would be Ortiz +550. Also, if it was an even -1000, the props wouldn't have to equal -1000 because there are 6 possible outcomes in a fight. Fighter A wins by decision, fighter A wins inside the distance, fighter B wins by decision, fighter B wins inside the distance, a draw or a no contest. Those 2 extra possibilities change the odds only slightly because draws are rare and no contests are extremely rare, especially in major fights with experienced fighters. If the line is over Floyd -800 the props would appear as such. Floyd win by decision would be -500 and Floyd win inside the distance -300. The ratio wil be around 1.6-to-1 for Floyd dec-to-ITD.

EricLinny: Mayweather -750 | Ortiz +525  This line is at a major offshore sportsbook. They didn't post prop odds yet, but as I stated on several posts it will be around 2-1 in favor of a decision.

Also, Ortiz is a southpaw and the last southpaw opponent for Floyd was Zab. That will be the biggest hurdle for Floyd in this fight. It's fast and powerful that follows a strong jab. People talk about Floyd being old and inactive against a young strong fighter who is starting to peak. Floyd is in great shape physically and mentally. His short term retirement helped his body recover and he appears just as fast and sharp as he was 5 years ago. Ortiz is roughly four or so good fights away from beating world-class opponents. He has the physical tools, but he needs to develop better defensive tactics. This is the type of opponent style made for Mayweather (similar to Hatton). The only difficulty for Floyd is facing a fast, hard-punching southpaw.

Odds are out for those that haven't seen:

Mayweather -700 Ortiz +500

-500 to win by dec??  Why would anything think the odds would be that poor?

The fight has to go 12 full rounds.  Floyd wont be any worse than -200 to win by decision and probably -160 to -180 more likely.

I'd say the number will definitely be higher than -200 for Floyd by decision. Consider the fact you could bet on a fight that there was a condition you wouldn't lose that if the fight was a no contest, stoppage due to cut or swelling or any other reason besdies a real KO or TKO where a fighter could not continue, and your bet was Floyd to win by decision, odds then would be no worse than -200. All these are a major factor besides for no contest. Ortiz has a weak defense and his footwork gets stationary after several rounds. That's a perfect spot for Mayweather to throw half-strength combo's, enough to cause swelling or cuts. Now let's say the standard for sportsbooks is Mayweather -700, even though props have a high vig but also have specific conditions where you have only 1 way to win, where betting flat out you have 2 ways to win, 2 ways to tie and 2 ways to lose. That make the prop for a Mayweather win (losing to tie and no-contest) including decision or KO (TKO), about -550 (or -600). How would you split the ratio of winning by decision as opposed to KO (or TKO). I feel it's favored Mayweather wins by decision, or at worst if you feel differently that it's 50/50 Mayweather wins either way, then you still have -275 (or -600 would be -300). Any part you disagree? If you feel Mayweather is strongly favored to win by KO (or TKO) then that would be the only way the odds should open. Unless linesmakers feel the public has a strong opinion for Mayweather by KO, which I don't because beating Mosley (older) and Marquez (smaller) by decision, and Ortiz looked impressive beating a very over-rated Berto. Also, the original Berto vs Mosley would have been much better for Berto, Ortiz is physically much stronger and it showed. I was impressed with the heart of Berto, he took a serious beating and also dishing out some of his own.

I checked Betfair and the action on Mayweather fight they had opened Floyd -670, now it is -580. Early action is on Ortiz, which makes sense, the average fight fan (sports bettor) bets the favorite just before the event. So all the boxing analysts who bet want to take advantage of early high odds, but I don't see any major movement of Floyd going under -500.

walktheline: Floyd being below -400 I don't forsee. That's a big drop and would take a lot of action. I agree with you the public thinks it's a great value play after watching both fighters last few fights. I seen an earlier post of someone saying they are glad to see Floyd fight a young talented on the rise fighter instead of old fighters on the decline. I must say I do like the fact Mayweather did take this fight as opposed to other fights he could have taken. Unfortunately the people wanted him to fight Manny, I would have like to seen Martinez but Floyd would fight Manny before Sergio. The bad part is Ortiz's defense and Floyd will use Victor's strength against him. Mayweather is a master at defense and anyone walking into him he will pick apart. Similar to Hatton but Ortiz being a southpaw and much stonger than Hatton will actually give him a better chance than most experts feel.