Pac/Marquez

the fight at caliente.com.mx got as low as paq-250/jmm+140.

in the future, i believe that this same line movement will work inversely with canelo and morales, both of whom i think are fades.

When did it get to -250? I was seeing -300/-350?

around 6:00 pm eastern time.

 

 

Well that sucks. I put in my play @ 3:50 PST @ -300. The difference between -250 & -300 cost me $333.33.

congradulations on the win. the line move cost me $100.00 but it was more of an ego thing. i knew the caliente line would get down to around -250 but i got desperate and ended up leaving money on the table.

pm me if you need any other info, boxing-related or otherwise, regarding tijuana or mexico.

Qncyk1: At Caliente, what do you think the line will be at just before the fight with Margarito vs Cotto. Assuming that the Tijuana Tornado will get a huge fan base especially against Cotto (and the Mexican, Puerto Rican, Cuban, etc... rivalries are very deep rooted.) As far as fans, Puerto Ricans & Mexicans are the most loyalest from what I've seen. At Madison Square Garden, Roy Jones had few fans in his fight with Tito Trinidad. MSG is known for having a huge loyal fan base for Puerto Rican fighters. On the Jones-Trinidad undercard, Collazo fought early (not listed on the undercard) and being from NYC, training out of NYC and being of Puerto Rican descent, the Garden was 50% capacity at his fight time, but they roared throughout his intro until his exit.
    Jones and Trinidad were both on their biggest decline and Tito was fighting way above his natural weight and was seriously out of shape. As a welterweight his career, he out-weighed Jones at 170lbs and it was good to see him hang it up before taking beatings like most ex-champions. His career he lost to Hopkins, then past prime against Winky and Jones. His career of 45 fights was impressive.
   One more example would be Miguel Cotto. When he fought Clottey at MSG, Clottey stated he felt he beat Margarito and that no matter how well he fought he could not win a decision against Cotto especially at MSG. I expected a very close fight, and felt that a prop odds for Clottey were a huge overlay, but do to the fact he was correct regarding decisions, I had to lay a minor amount on the Clottey by decision, and a large amount on the over. It was scary because Clottey hurt his knee as it took him several rounds to adapt and he was not able to put weight on it and throw bigger shots. Then third round accidental headbutt over Cotto's eye made it more unlikely to go the distance, but Cotto fought well despite the bad eye, but in comparison a bad knee is much worse. I got roughly over 10-1 on the prop, and the close fight went to Cotto. I had also bet big on Clottey and Manny to go the distance. I felt it would be like the Oscar fight, but Clottey is big, strong and would just keep his guard up not allowing Manny to connect. I'm glad the ref didn't decide to stop it do to inactivity from Clottey despite he was never hurt.
    I commented once that his physical strength, mindset and stamina reminded me of Hagler, but without the offensive skill. That is largely under-rated to the general public, because if an opponent is to fast for another fighter (both similar in strength and boxing skill), basically the slower fighter becomes a heavy bag. This is much different that a fighter trading shots as the mentality (like against Manny was) becomes one of survival and minimum damage to oneself, giving himself less a chance to win, but in the process allows his opponent to be much more offensive than usual without having to worry about any retaliation.
  So Qncyk1, what do you feel the best odds for Cotto will be offered? At this point it is very possible to split sportsbooks and get great value on a middle, but maybe 60% profit if Cotto wins and 40% profit if Margarito wins as I feel Cotto has the edge.

BTW - I forgot to note that the Jones-Trinidad fight had Devon Alexander which was the reason for attending. Golota was a good wager that night as he fought Mike Mollo who was small but fast handed and a good puncher.

margo went from+550 to +200 against paq. right now, i think cintron is the better dog against canelo. probably be around +400.

i had margo against cotto at +190 and it got as low as +160. this fight will probably go off very close to that number.

dlh lost to sturm, convincingly, but was still a small dog against b-hop. i had hokins at -170(friday night after the weigh-ins) and it got as low as -140 or so saturday after all the mexican money came in.

 

 

 

 

I did the same. I had one concern with Hopkins as he was known to be a super slow starter and I didn't want Oscar getting easy rounds and then running around. I felt that he was so fat against Sturm, and looked soft against Hopkins that Bernard would realize this and slowly set-up on body knock-out as he could walk through Oscar's punches.
   The concept that your strength is your weakness is very true for the DLH career. He was a naturally lefty that fought Orthodox. At lower weights his jab with faster and stronger than most lightweights power shots (also the liver shot). As he moved up in weight, it worked against him as his jab was a little better than average but they never had to fear his right hand. At lightweight he could have fought anyone ever, upwards in weight he lacked power and his speed decreased significantly as his stamina and footwork.