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Plays for the Week

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Posted: #1
2006 Results (March-July): +19.2 units (+$1,920)
2007 Results: +42.25 units (+$4,225)
Last week: +1 units (+$100)
2008 to Date: -13.79 units (-$1,379)

Already down a unit for the week with the Aoh loss (posted in capmasters thread).  Only down on two plays as of now, but I am sure I will be on some others.  Will give a brief write up in a little while.  I love the Rubio under, Ornelas doesn't have any whiskers and poor stamina.

3 units on under 9.5 (+170) in Rubio-Ornelas
.75 of a unit on Sanders (+190) vs Holm
 
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Posted: #2
Another locked in...

1 unit on Earl (+140) vs Castle
Am I missing something here?  I've never seen Castle, but judging by his record he is just an average domestic UK fighter.  I understand that Earl was KO'd by Katsidis and Khan, but I've seen him a few times including that classic with Katsidis and he is a decent little fighter.  Surely he has enough left to win a decision here, not going large because I haven't seen Castle, but this line doesn't make much sense to me.

On the subject of the Ornelas fight and the under there.  Ornelas was dropped by McKart a couple of times and even a bloated up Bravo the last couple of times I saw him.  He is very easy to hit and Rubio can crack.  Add to the fact that Rubio's chin has deceived him before and this may be the play of the weekend IMO.  +170 is still available at thegreek, the line is a little lower at 5dimes.

On the Sanders fight.  I bet the draw last time they fought and thought that was a reasonable scorecard, the judges were definitely in Holm's back pocket; the tables should be turned here with the fight being in Sanders home town.
 
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Posted: #3
My guides say that it will be Holly
 
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Posted: #4
You are aware all three judges will be from out of state?
 
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Posted: #5
can't comment on earl / castle, but the sanders and under plays with rubio are both great picks.  would be sanders or nothing, and would of jumped on that under at +175, but it's fallen to +115.  may still hit it if it bounces back some.
 
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Posted: #6
pavlik wins 6-9 1.0 for 10.0

pavlik wins 10-12 1.0 for 9.65

pavlik by decision 5.3 to win 5.0



going to the casino now to see where hopkins is at.


 
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Posted: #7
oops....
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by Coweringbeef:

You are aware all three judges will be from out of state?


I thought Yoda was the only one who used guides.  It's rare for three judges to be from one state anyway and it usually doesn't stop them from favoring the hometown fighter regardless.  All three judges were from out of state last time and they were extremely generous to Holm in her backyard IMO.
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by capmaster2000:

can't comment on earl / castle, but the sanders and under plays with rubio are both great picks.  would be sanders or nothing, and would of jumped on that under at +175, but it's fallen to +115.  may still hit it if it bounces back some.




The Earl odds just seem strange to me, but I didn't want to go for any more then a unit never having seen Castle.
 
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Posted: #10
Played Napa for some coin also.  Hopefully it's a dog day in the UK today.

.75 of a unit on Napa (+185) vs Ballone
 
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Posted: #11
1 unit on Earl (+140) vs Castle
I guess I was missing something, Earl is completely done.

.75 of a unit on Napa (+185) vs Ballone
Reads like body shots and the kd were the story of the second half of the fight.  You know it must have been a perfectly placed shot for Napa to drop him.
 
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Posted: #12
Last minute plays for me on the Smith fight...

.20 of a unit on the DRAW (+1500)
.60 of a unit on Smith +8.5 points handicap (-115)

 
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Posted: #13
.20 of a unit on the DRAW (+1500)
.60 of a unit on Smith +8.5 points handicap (-115)
Not a good performance by Smith, I had it a tad closer at 96-94, but he played completely into Garcia's game plan.

Call me a lovesick teenager, but I have fallen for the Ornelas-Rubio under completely after going back and watching Bravo-Ornelas again and added more, I'm done betting it now.  May look like a fool tomorrow night if Rubio decides to use his reach and make it a sparring session, but I highly doubt it.  I thought that I would be able to find Ornelas-McKart again, but I didn't have the tape and I couldn't find it online.  Also played the either fighter knocked down or out prop in the Hopkins-Pavlik fight.

2 more units on under 9.5 rounds in Rubio-Ornelas (+135)
1.2 units on fighter knocked down or out in Pav-BHop (-120)

 
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Posted: #14
comonnnn man.  pick a side!
 
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Posted: #15
.75 of a unit on Sanders (+190) vs Holm

Reads like a needed a little more of some backyard scoring.  Sure wish I could have played the draw again like last time this time around, I would have if it would have been offered.  Great call on Harris backers out there who took into account the Fuller weight drop.
 
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Posted: #16
Brights, hanging on a limb for your Pav/BHop pick.. any thoughts on the undercard? Haven't even looked at it, too busy watching the Penn St game....
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by walktheline:

Brights, hanging on a limb for your Pav/BHop pick.. any thoughts on the undercard? Haven't even looked at it, too busy watching the Penn St game....


Just threw Pavlik into a parlay, but other then that there really isn't anything I like besides the medium play on either knocked down or out.

.50 of a unit to win 3.41
Pavlik (-420)
Luevano ITD (+122)
Rubio ITD (+115)
Zags (-310)
 
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Posted: #18
My pits are sweating already waiting on Rubio-Ornelas.  I like my reasoning for the extra large play, let's hope there is no drama down to the wire.
 
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Posted: #19
Here we go....Ornelas on his way out.

  Under backers.
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by Fullbrights:

Here we go....Ornelas on his way out.

  Under backers.


Pace quickened up a bit in the 3rd, but this is way to slow for my liking.
 
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Posted: #21


Like the pace in the 4th, but the 5th was super slow until the last 20 second.  Doesn't look good as of now, didn't want this to be a nail biter.
 
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Posted: #22
Is Ornelas's beard on steroids, this isn't the same Ornelas I have seen before.  I have him winning the fight through 6 4-2.  This sucks.
 
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Posted: #23
They better pick it up and quick. Neither of these guys wants to sit in the pocket and trade for any length of time
 
 
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Posted: #24
Finally the last ten seconds of the round they hung in there and traded but this is not looking good. We need rounds of it and there just isn't enough time left to hit this !
 
 
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Posted: #25
Yeah, I'm probably done now.  I need a miracle in this last round and a half.
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