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Plays for the Week

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Posted: #1
All plays and units wagered posted
2006 Results (March-July): +19.2 units (+$1,920)
Last Week: +.44 of a unit
2007 to date: +18.46 units (+$1,846)

Well the weekend is not what it could have been with the PPV being canceled due to Marquez's injury, but at least that fight has a new date along with all the undercard matchups minus Mora-Ouma. 

Not much to offer this weekend without FNF, HBO, or Showtime.  It would have been nice if someone would have picked up the Sunday Top Rank card from Vegas.  Looks like I am only going with one straight wager for the weekend, plus I have Brahmer as part of my posted parlay from the weekend of Marquez-Vasquez.

Friday
.75 of a unit on Cruz (+330) vs Trejo

Saturday
Brahmer as part of my posted future parlay which is now down to only 5 fights with all the cancellations, Brahmer being the 4th leg of it.
.50 of a unit to win 15.98 (With cancellations now to win 5.36)
Marquez-Vazquez under 9.5 rounds (-165)
Caballero (-750) vs Lacierva
Torres (+140) vs Holt
Cintron (-1050) vs Feliciano (Canceled)
Guerrero (-120) vs Juarez (Canceled)
Ouma-Mora over 9.5 rounds (-250) (Canceled)
Brahmer (-145) vs Veit
Haye-Mormeck under 10.5 rounds (-170)





 
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Posted: #2
I've got

Trejo/Cruz over 9.5  -130 2%
Anderson/Jones over 8.5 -130 2%
Reyes/Ortiz over 9.5 -290 12%
Ortiz over Reyes +140 2%

I may hedge the Reyes/Ortiz over.  I'm regretting wagering such a high amount.  I initially chose this bet because between the 16 fights lost between them, only 2 have been by KO.  Reyes with 4 losses has never been stopped.  Ortiz has been stopped twice out of his 10 losses. Reyes KO % is low with 7 of his 20 wins being from KO/TKO.  Most all of those 7 KO's by Reyes have been guys who tend to get knocked out when they lose, unlike Ortiz.

 
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Posted: #3
sorry...make that 14 losses between them.
 
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Posted: #4
Interesting fact to add to this.  In all of Cruz's fights, he's never TKO/KO'd somebody with a winning record.
 
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Posted: #5
Oops...I mean Ortiz...Laughin.. Sorry Fullbright. I'm wrecking your thread... Anyways...want to make sure the information is correct
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by snippets69:

Oops...I mean Ortiz...Laughin.. Sorry Fullbright. I'm wrecking your thread... Anyways...want to make sure the information is correct


Nah man, you are not wrecking anything.  Not saying you won't win, but people get into trouble when they start risking 12% of their bankroll on heavy chalk.  You should have tried to parlay it with something to get better odds allowing you to wager less.

I for one am always hesitant to lay large money on an over play with two Mexican fighters no matter what the KO ratio due to their style and tendency to cut.

Interesting to see that you played the over in the Anderson fight I came close to pulling the trigger on the under at + odds due to Jones's hit or be hit style.  I like the Ortiz play even though I didn't play it.
 
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Posted: #7
I'm pretty confident about this one, but you're right, the amount is not too smart.  That's why I'm considering hedging it, but then I'll be getting even worse odds.   We'll see how this Anderson fight goes.  If I lose, I'll be tempted to keep it as is.  If I win, I'll count myself lucky and might  hedge out the Reyes/Ortiz over.
 
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Posted: #8
I took Cruz, ITD for the even larger pay-day, in a Parlay w/ no other boxing. Scrapped Anderson & Wolack into a college fb Parlay.

Interesting to see the DelRodriquez No Contest overturned into a TKO. Though I doubt most books will reverse that.

GLA!
bigeiii
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by bigeiii:

I took Cruz, ITD for the even larger pay-day, in a Parlay w/ no other boxing. Scrapped Anderson & Wolack into a college fb Parlay.

Interesting to see the DelRodriquez No Contest overturned into a TKO. Though I doubt most books will reverse that.

GLA!
bigeiii


I don't think any books will be reversing it.
 
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Posted: #10
.75 of a unit on Cruz (+330) vs Trejo

My only wager of the week is a loser.  Now I will just look to Germany and cheer on Brahmer to push the parlay through to the final leg.
 
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Posted: #11
Full: Long time no speak as there hasn't been any meaningful cards in a while! I respect your opinion and am going to ask you to help me make a decision I want to unload on Brahmer tommorow night @ -160! (Unloading in this sense is not a lot) I have all my bodog money tied up in CFBall games tommorow afternoon and if I hit a good amount I want to double my bankroll as I have gotten sick of Bodog and lost a lot of my roll playing poker (I just want to break even and cash out or bust). Now I haven't seen either boxer fight and as I see Veit won the last bout by MD, what justifies Brahmer being the favorite this time around? Is it the fact that Inkin Ko'd him 2 bouts ago?
 
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Posted: #12


Trejo/Cruz over 9.5  -130 2%
Anderson/Jones over 8.5 -130 2%
Reyes/Ortiz over 9.5 -290 12%
Ortiz over Reyes +140 2%


I just can't seem to hit any underdogs...Ever






 
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Posted: #13
I've got $150 on Brahmer. Veit is a yr. older at 33 and the last fight was supposedly quite close.
 
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Posted: #14
I'm considering parlaying Arce and Sosa for tomorrow.  What you think Fullbright.  I think Sosa is solid but don't know much about Arce.
 
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Posted: #15
I'm considering parlaying Arce and Sosa for tomorrow.  What you think Fullbright.  I think Sosa is solid but don't know much about Arce.
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by snippets69:

I've got $150 on Brahmer. Veit is a yr. older at 33 and the last fight was supposedly quite close.





Braehmer KO 4.  Nice. 
 
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Posted: #17
Hey snippets dont play Arce, it looks like Rojas has a great chance to beat Arce,hes bigger than Arce and southpaw so ill bet $50 on Rojas.   
 
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Posted: #18
Brahmer gets it done to get my parlay to the last leg with the Mormeck -Haye under.  I will probably hedge a bit when the time comes, but not much because I like the under a good bit.

.50 of a unit to win 15.98 (With cancellations now to win 5.36)
Marquez-Vazquez under 9.5 rounds (-165)
Caballero (-750) vs Lacierva
Torres (+140) vs Holt
Cintron (-1050) vs Feliciano (Canceled)
Guerrero (-120) vs Juarez (Canceled)
Ouma-Mora over 9.5 rounds (-250) (Canceled)
Brahmer (-145) vs Veit
Haye-Mormeck under 10.5 rounds (-170)
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by snippets69:

I'm considering parlaying Arce and Sosa for tomorrow.  What you think Fullbright.  I think Sosa is solid but don't know much about Arce.


Nice week so far Snippets.  I don't really have any solid take on tomorrows fights.  As Albo said, Rojas has some decent value, but all of this depends on what Arce is like after the Mijares fight.  I will say this is not the type of fight that I thought Top Rank would put Arce in right off of his loss.

Question, how do you know more about Sosa then Arce?  Arce has been world class for a long time.

I don't play chalk so if you need advice on heavy faves to play you won't really get a take from me. It's not my betting style so I wouldn't feel comfortable endorsing a decent size favorite when I rarely play them.  I'm a dog lover.
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by CurtisSumpter:

Full: Long time no speak as there hasn't been any meaningful cards in a while! I respect your opinion and am going to ask you to help me make a decision I want to unload on Brahmer tommorow night @ -160! (Unloading in this sense is not a lot) I have all my bodog money tied up in CFBall games tommorow afternoon and if I hit a good amount I want to double my bankroll as I have gotten sick of Bodog and lost a lot of my roll playing poker (I just want to break even and cash out or bust). Now I haven't seen either boxer fight and as I see Veit won the last bout by MD, what justifies Brahmer being the favorite this time around? Is it the fact that Inkin Ko'd him 2 bouts ago?



Sorry CS, just saw the post.  Hope all went well and you won the CFB games and then took Brahmer.  I was on him for a bit in the parlay, but I wouldn't have said it was an unload type play. Brahmer is a very erratic and inconsistent fighter.  He was worth a play, but not a huge one.

Looks like you were in a go big or go home state with your bankroll, this will probably lead to one thing.... no bankroll.  It's a marathon, not a sprint.  Take your time bro.
 
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Posted: #21
I just didn't find much on Arce's fight until later in the day.  But I read a couple capper's.  And they agree Rojas is a live one.  So I'll probably stay away from it.  Maybe put a tiny wager on Rojas just for fun. I've done phenomenal staying away from underdogs, but it's bound to catchup to me.  I stay away from huge bets now.  I won't go much over 10% on anything anymore.
 
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Posted: #22
Ok, i have lots of reasons why i dont like Arce here. First hes moving up in weight, so hell be fighting a real 118 pounds in Rojas.
 

He fought current bantamweight champ Gerry Penalosa last year on the road in the Philippines and fought well in a decision loss. Rojas lost to Christian Majares(the same guy who beat Arce)  in 2004 but he was much more competitive than Arce was in his loss to him. He’s lost 10 times but has never been stopped.   5 of his losses happened very early in his career. He is only 27 years old and is well seasoned and battle tested. Rojas has been very active in the past 2 years and should be well prepared for this showcase fight.

I really think Rojas holds all advantages here.

Arce is coming off his one sided loss to Mijares and in Rojas, he’s fighting another tall, big southpaw with some credentials. I don’t think Arce will have great success at 118. I believe that some of the fighters that Rojas has been in the ring with are clearly better than the fighters that Arce has been defending his title against. Arce has heart and determination but I think he will be outgunned by the bigger and underrated Rojas probably by decision, although a stoppage win is possible. The clear value is on Rojas here, ill bet small, maybe $50.Good luck.

 
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Posted: #23
Ohh i almost forgot, Cristian Mijares said that Rojas is the better fighter and will beat Arce today.  hmmm lets see what heppends, but anything is possible..
 
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Posted: #24

[Quote: Originally Posted by Fullbrights] 



Question, how do you know more about Sosa then Arce?  Arce has been world class for a long time.

I ve been watching Arces fights,and i think hes overrated, and i always go to my boxing source so i can get all the info posible about each fighter.

 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by albo2006:

Quote Originally Posted by Fullbrights:

 



Question, how do you know more about Sosa then Arce?  Arce has been world class for a long time.

I ve been watching Arces fights,and i think hes overrated, and i always go to my boxing source so i can get all the info posible about each fighter.



No, I completely agree that the value lies with Rojas and his physical advantages, but I really don't think much of Rojas as a fighter which is why I am laying off.  Arce is overrated, he looked good against a bunch of mediocre fighters before facing Mijares.  A lot of question marks here.
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