Plays for the Week

2006 Results (March-July): +19.2 units (+$1,920)
2007 Results: +42.25 units (+$4,225)
Last Week: +1.2 units units (+$120)
2008 to Date: -19.98 units (-$1,998)

Big slate of matchups this weekend though most are of the mismatch variety.  Saturday night's HBO BAD card should be a lot of fun to watch, it's probably the best BAD they have put on in a while.

Friday
1 unit on Branco (+350) vs Lynes
1 unit on Branco (+270) vs Lynes
1 unit on Branco (+280) vs Lynes
Boy has the Bronco line dropped steadily since last weekend.  Last Friday it was sitting at +280 at thegreek and +270 at 5dimes, now it sits at +220 and +190.  The 5dimes opener was just plain wrong.
Here is what I said last week about the fight....
Just WAY too much value to ignore on this play and I think it's worth going larger than normal on.  I think -300 Lynes would be a bit of a reach even if the fight were in the UK.  I see this as no more than an even money matchup in Italy.  It's not that Branco is great or anything, but Lynes is just as average and as ordinary as they come though he is pretty active with his punches.  Lynes isn't a puncher by any means and Branco should get every benefit of the doubt on the cards in Italy which has had a good many dubious decisions in the past.

.75 of a unit on under 5.5 rounds (+145) in Gonzalez-Pastrana
Pastrana's chin really isn't there anymore, at plus odds this is worth a shot.  Gonzalez has about every physical advantage in the book here.  5.5 is a scary under bet, but I think Pastrana sees the canvas early.


That's all I'm on as of now.  I thought about the Marrone under because frankly he stinks and has chin concerns, but the guy he is facing doesn't appear to be that great on paper.  Any thoughts on fading Byrd?  George isn't that bad and that is a lot of weight to lose at anytime especially at 37, he just doesn't look right at this weight to me.  Am I crazy for thinking Munoz, I know it's Mijares in the opposing corner, but am I the only one that thinks +350ish on Alex is enticing?

Hard to get a feel for what the Munoz-Mijares line will do, went ahead and took Munoz for a bit.

.80 of a unit on Munoz (+350) vs Mijares

Interesting FB. I thought you'd think Pastrana by KO would be worth a small donation.

I'm leaning towards laying the juice with Mijares, taking Eromoslele Albert for the B.A.D upset, and hitting the plus Under 9.5 with Gamboa. Let's just say I've had the Koolaid. It tastes great.

Good luck this week!

 

I like your Mijares juice line and Gamboa under calls. I would have said Pastrana had NO CHANCE until the day I seen Gonzalez go down for the count on a powder puff punchers body shot.

I will never trust him again no matter who he fights.

 

Fullbrights, I love the Branco play. I think it is the play of the week. I put money on that fight months ago before the odds started to drop like a brick.

The books have a terrible habit of overestimating British fighters who do really well at a domestic level.

The fight taking place in Italy is just icing on the cake.

Sometimes in Italy, you need to KO your Italian opponent to get a draw LOL.

Are you ordering this card FB? I plan on watching the HBO card for sure but I'm starting to get tempted to order this because I think this could be a real entertaining fight.

Hey!  That's my boy you're talking about!  (that KO prop was my biggest win of 2007 -- happened just before I joined up here).

 

LOL!! Picking Penalosa and by KO no less, was a cracking call.

I would have never picked Penalosa to win that fight.

I did not bet on that fight as I would have picked Jhonny but the odds were too wide.

I do know of a couple of guys who lost their shirts on that fight as they had Gonzalez in multiple parlay's.

you personally know snippets, right?  was he was one of those guys who'd lumped Gonzalez in a chalky parlay?

Yes, I am afraid he was. He is a good guy but he sometimes lay's such heavy chalk that it only takes 2 or 3 plays to blow all your winnings and then some.

 

He has been making a good comeback for the past couple of months.

He e-mailed me last week to talk about putting Witter into a couple of parlay's. I strongly advised against it but I don't know if he followed through or not.

 

The biggest thing in gambling, is to pick your spots. There is money to be made on boxing, IF you are patient.

Yes, I definitely agree about the patience.  Dog wins definitely happen in boxing, but usually it's one of those situations where after the fight, you'd say: "Damn, that same result would've happened 19 times out of 20."  the books just can't accurately cap boxers the way they do the other major sports, and you can occasionally find a slip in the perception of a certain fave.  For the most part, people value losses more than gains, so they want to back a winner, and that ends up raising the chalk on the fave.  That's the main reason why there really isn't any value in lumping the chalk together, as you're already getting an inflated price on every fave.

Branco over Lynes.

Yes. You have sold me.

The Italian wins by SD in yet another shady night in boxing history...I'm in.

And a V-small play on Branco to upset Byrd. It's can happen, and I'm getting +400 on that one. Its Branco or no play on that fight, I think.

Someone get that Snippets character to post his plays back on this forum!

Why?

You wouldn't happen to be one of the snippets aliases, would you?  Weepaul said that snippets was considering a witter play, and you did start that thread where you were all over witter.  Plus, you don't pimp an avatar, either.

Nice hit on Branco, Fullbrights. Wish I followed through and tailed it. You had this one pegged from the very beginning.

Congrats.

Way to go FB.  Huge day for you with this big hit.  You had this one sniffed out for ages.  Great start to one of the biggest boxing weekends in a while. 

1 unit on Branco (+350) vs Lynes
1 unit on Branco (+270) vs Lynes
1 unit on Branco (+280) vs Lynes

Appreciate it guys.  Looks like those that played it were on Bronco with me, good stuff, definitely a good start to the weekend for many of us.

I just read the fight thread at esb and like you said Mayweatherfan it does read to be controversial, but the location scoring edge was one of the major factors in this play having so much value to me.  Nice call Weepaul on needing to KO your opponent in Italy to get a draw.

Escalante just destroyed the helpless Martinez, who took a knee ofter getting rocked in the 3rd with a flashy combination of left hooks and uppercuts.  I think he knew in the 1st rd it would only be a matter of time before his constant pressure smothered Martinez. Had an off the record play on the under.

Just turned it over to Telefutura thinking it would still be happening.  Sounds like it was never a fight.  Escalante is okay, but his chin should make bettors leery of banking on him against any puncher.

Looks like this Franco kid has a nice hometown backing.

Yeah and in defense of Gonzalez there making 118 had taken a toll on his body.  That was mainly the reason I played him to get knocked down/or out in that fight, I think I only had $50 on it, but it was a memorable win.  He shouldn't ever see that weight again if he knows what is good for him.

Small action/value play for tonight.

.30 of a unit on under 9.5 rounds (+325) in Byrd-George
This may look stupid in the end, but I think two things give the under a bit of value tonight; Byrd may be weakened by the weight drain or the opposite could be the case and his punch may have a lot of pop at 175.

GL on the Byrd under play FB.  I agree, it's going to be in Byrd's best interest not to dance around.  He looks great as a LH and may just have some extra snap in his punches.