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Plays for the Week (WAR Pavlik)

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Posted: #1
All plays and units wagered posted
2006 Results (March-July): +19.2 units (+$1,920)
Last Week: No Plays
2007 to date: +17.71 units (+$1,771)

Well I am not playing tomorrow night's big fight between Taylor and Pavlik.  If I had to make a pick I would take Pavlik, but I just can't bring myself to pull the trigger on a bet probably because I really want him to beat Jermain "No Intentions" Taylor  so I don't want the double whammy.  I really think it is a tough fight to call and don't see value in much for it.  I think it is going to be a great fight though; did I just mention "Taylor" and "great fight" in the same sentence?

Tonight:
.60 of a unit on Escobedo Inside the Distance (-115)

Tomorrow:
.50 of a unit on Gogiya (+200) vs Tsypko
1.5 units on Woods by decision (-150) vs Gonzalez
.75 of a unit on Berto by KO,TKO,DQ (+200)

 
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Posted: #2
.60 of a unit on Escobedo Inside the Distance (-115)
 
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Posted: #3
I followed your lead on Escobedo Fbs. Very keen call. PROPs to you. I agry on Woods, Tony won last nite for me (impressively as well, he may be a legit minor Heavy threat yet). I will agry on Berto tomorrow, once the Totals are released tomorrow AM (i.e on my Hokies). But is Berto for real? Or is he more heavy-handed hype? I'm not gonna name 'em, but have we not seen enough of this smashing ilk of boxer (lately in particular); to be a bit leery of when he gets caught? Main-even Props are in the main-even thread. They are all the way thru as closers.

Took DPDL, i.e. my boy, as his guy is climbing up 2 weight classes for it, and DPDL is bigger (good big) than ever.

GLA!
bigeiii
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by bigeiii:

I followed your lead on Escobedo Fbs. Very keen call. PROPs to you. I agry on Woods, Tony won last nite for me (impressively as well, he may be a legit minor Heavy threat yet). I will agry on Berto tomorrow, once the Totals are released tomorrow AM (i.e on my Hokies). But is Berto for real? Or is he more heavy-handed hype? I'm not gonna name 'em, but have we not seen enough of this smashing ilk of boxer (lately in particular); to be a bit leery of when he gets caught? Main-even Props are in the main-even thread. They are all the way thru as closers.

Took DPDL, i.e. my boy, as his guy is climbing up 2 weight classes for it, and DPDL is bigger (good big) than ever.

GLA!
bigeiii



on Escobedo ITD

My Berto KO play weighs a lot on Estrada not being the same guy that we saw go the distance with Mosley.  Estrada took a lot of punishment in his KO loss to Cintron and he hasn't really had to show much since.  I think that Berto's team senses some deterioration after that grueling KO loss to Cintron and I tend to agree.  Estrada is there to be hit and I don't think he can take like he could pre-Cintron.
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by bigeiii:

I followed your lead on Escobedo Fbs. Very keen call. PROPs to you. I agry on Woods, Tony won last nite for me (impressively as well, he may be a legit minor Heavy threat yet). I will agry on Berto tomorrow, once the Totals are released tomorrow AM (i.e on my Hokies). But is Berto for real? Or is he more heavy-handed hype? I'm not gonna name 'em, but have we not seen enough of this smashing ilk of boxer (lately in particular); to be a bit leery of when he gets caught? Main-even Props are in the main-even thread. They are all the way thru as closers.

Took DPDL, i.e. my boy, as his guy is climbing up 2 weight classes for it, and DPDL is bigger (good big) than ever.

GLA!
bigeiii


What did you expect Bigs?  He was a 55-1 fave and the O/U was set at 3.5 at like -300.  I watched Old Man Moorer knock Couser silly in less than a round last year.  Couser is a complete bum outside of his KO over Barrett. 
 
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Posted: #6
Michael Moorer? He's the ONLY heavyweight champ I've ever meet. ONLY champ I've ever meet at any Weight Class for that matter.  Real nice guy out in public, had the busted hand cast on, & still brought maybe 2oo B&W glosses to the local Holiday Inn nite club, signed every single one. Was in town to buy some Doberman's for his main compound as a k9 security measure.

I don't disagry on your T2 take. But I'm still not sure how authoritative T2 is/can be, when he needs to be? I for one, have not seen evidence either way, that's my point. But.......when so many Top-20's want no part of his always favorable Lefty style, that tells me a little sompthin sompthin as well.

Understood on Cintron. I can buy that.

Friday sure is dull sans any FNF's, ditto hump day.

GLA!
bigeiii
 
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Posted: #7
DPDL cracked out 'pez inside of 5. DPDL is nasty. He is one of my now 4 year old boys. He might have the most raw physical Voltage of any of 'em as well, relative to his near weight-class I mean, when that 3 is brought into inspection. (Cotto & La Araña being the other 2).


bigeiii
 
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Hey Fullbrights.  Glad to see you are still banging the till.  You should touch Pavlik by dec. just for fun and if you can get it +400 or more, IMO, it has great value.
 
Take care brother.
 
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Posted: #9
Woods won cleanly and convincingly via Decision, as planned. Woods is not real Young, but he has made 4 IBF defenses, still, he's on my list to go-against at some point.

bigeiii
 
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Posted: #10
.50 of a unit on Gogiya (+200) vs Tsypko
1.5 units on Woods by decision (-150) vs Gonzalez


Props to Woods on the repeat decision performance.  My dog in Germany didn't come through.  Only Berto ITD left for me.
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by alwayswin:

Hey Fullbrights.  Glad to see you are still banging the till.  You should touch Pavlik by dec. just for fun and if you can get it +400 or more, IMO, it has great value.
 
Take care brother.


You know it man.  Grinding it out in boxing is what I do.  That line is up to +600 now, but I like the oddsmakers view it as the least likely outcome.  I actually don't think this fight goes the distance either way, not playing the under though.  I think Pavlik either stops Taylor in the middle rounds or Taylor stops Pavlik late.  I don't really like to bet fights where I have a big time bias and I gotta be honest I want to see "No Intentions" KO'd tonight.
 
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Posted: #12
Fullbrights - At least you are honest! I feel a little biased on miy JT pick too, I am a fan (probalby one of the few) of JT, but to be honest a Pavlik win would be a lot better for the sport which could use a boost... I just want to see JT fight his fight, and by that I miean up to his full potential, so no excuses at the end
 
Do you have a play on the Berto / Estrada?
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by thecarter:

Fullbrights - At least you are honest! I feel a little biased on miy JT pick too, I am a fan (probalby one of the few) of JT, but to be honest a Pavlik win would be a lot better for the sport which could use a boost... I just want to see JT fight his fight, and by that I miean up to his full potential, so no excuses at the end
 
Do you have a play on the Berto / Estrada?



Yeah, it's above in the thread. .75 of a unit on Berto by KO (+200).  They are really mixing it up right now in round 3.
 
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Posted: #14
ahh somehow misssed it. Berto is a fun guy to watch. I wish he would stop showboating though... keeps grinning and sticking his tongue out atEstrada
 
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Posted: #15
i hope we get this ko soon... any moment now....
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by thecarter:

i hope we get this ko soon... any moment now....


Yeah, there has been a couple of times in the last 2 rounds that I thought the end might be imminent.  Berto really needs to go back to the body with the left hand, he hurt David with it bad.
 
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Posted: #17
Doesn't look good for the stoppage now, Berto paced himself in the 10th.
 
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Posted: #18
Estrada goes down.... Looks lke Berto paced himself to come out firing in 11... Estrada is a tough guy , took a lot of punishment...
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by Fullbrights:

Doesn't look good for the stoppage now, Berto paced himself in the 10th.


Never mind that....
.75 of a unit on Berto by KO,TKO,DQ (+200)

Fight went pretty much like I said it would.  Estrada is there to be hit, but I thought the residual effects of the Cintron KO would have him out of there sooner.  Berto is a lot of fun to watch.

  Won 2.52 units for the week
 
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Posted: #20
Really fun to watch but I hope he does not step up in competition too quickly.. his defense does not seem to have improved too much from his last couple fights
 
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I just took Berto SU. But that did work with all 4 VT Total's I hit today. I still don't really trust Berto. Kinda reminds me of "The Love Child" on some level. But I'll take it, that was a strong finish from a likewise righthand. Berto is in a very top-heavy weight-class, so a play for time might not be the worst thing. He still needs some sharpening, ink with a BIGname Trainer &/or Promoter, and start to pick off a couple of Top-20's to Top-15's, but there is no hurry here, keep him perfect, a Title shot & the associated pay-check will eventually come, saaaaay shot for 2009 or so.

bigeiii
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by thecarter:

Really fun to watch but I hope he does not step up in competition too quickly.. his defense does not seem to have improved too much from his last couple fights


You're right about his defense.  I'd like to see him fight Margarito in his next fight.  He wins that one if he focuses on defense (because Margarito has none).  That would provide the best lesson possible, and he can carry it to the eventual showdown with Cotto.
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by thecarter:

Really fun to watch but I hope he does not step up in competition too quickly.. his defense does not seem to have improved too much from his last couple fights


I agree.  He didn't really have to worry about Estrada's power, but eventually his lack of defense will cost him.  I have heard from a couple of people that followed his amateur career a bit that his chin was a bit suspect.  I thought the KD against Cosme was more of the flashy/quick buzz variety, but it will be interesting to see what happens when he is in with a legit puncher.
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by bigeiii:

I just took Berto SU. But that did work with all 4 VT Total's I hit today. I still don't really trust Berto. Kinda reminds me of "The Love Child" on some level. But I'll take it, that was a strong finish from a likewise righthand. Berto is in a very top-heavy weight-class, so a play for time might not be the worst thing. He still needs some sharpening, ink with a BIGname Trainer &/or Promoter, and start to pick off a couple of Top-20's to Top-15's, but there is no hurry here, keep him perfect, a Title shot & the associated pay-check will eventually come, saaaaay shot for 2009 or so.

bigeiii


At least VT's offense was got a few points on the board.  I have never been more frustrated as a Clemson fan/alum.  Our program is a joke, Tommy Bowden can't make a halftime adjustment to save his life.

I saw where you had a rough go in the WVA game last night with your plays, nice comeback with VT the VT totals.

I don't bet any other sports than boxing, but I may consider playing some baseball next year.  I have been near the top of the Wagerline baseball contest the entire year.  It is coming down to the final day of the season to see whether I head home with a cash prize or just get a Wagerline jacket.
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by A2C:



You're right about his defense.  I'd like to see him fight Margarito in his next fight.  He wins that one if he focuses on defense (because Margarito has none).  That would provide the best lesson possible, and he can carry it to the eventual showdown with Cotto.


I don't think Berto's handlers should be in any hurry to match him with Margarito.  I think it will take some time for Berto to develop the defense he will need in that matchup; he really needs to get to work on his defense pronto because those kind of fundamentals don't develop overnight.

I think a Clottey-Berto matchup would be a fun one to watch.
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