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#1
Nice doubleheader on HBO tonight, two intriguing fights but for drastically different reasons. Everyone is expecting a war in the opening bout between Rios and Alvarado. I'm not so sure about that assumption...
I do expect a good pace, but a war usually requires two participants. I don't really feel Alvarado will be competitive in this fight. Both men are defensively deficient and solid offensively. The only problem I see is that Alvarado is too loose and simply outgunned.
If you're looking at Rios as beatable, you're exactly right. Abril beat him very easily and was robbed. The blueprint exists - stay on the outside, pile up points, smother and/or clinch and don't let him get off inside. Alvarado isn't a guy that is capable or willing to repeat this game plan. He's coming to fight and he'll be punished.
Rios -150, 22.5 units to win 15.
Nishioka is good. Hasn't lost in almost a decade. Veteran. Smart. Durable. The problem is that Donaire is great. The general consensus is that Donaire will win a decision against Nishioka. I don't see that happening.
Nishioka has only been stopped once and that was in his second professional bout. In fact, he's rarely been in much trouble in his career. However, I did see something about him that I don't like.
He was dropped in the first round against Jhonny Gonzalez by a nice straight right hand. The problem was that there was only about 30 seconds left in the round. When he was hurt, he simply backed straight up and attempted to run. He didn't attempt to clinch or tie Gonzalez up whatsoever. Basically, I don't feel he'll be able to survive if Donaire hurts him at any point in the fight.
Much like Alvarado, he's fighting a better version of himself.
Donaire ITD, -128. 6.4 units to win 5.
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