Spence vs Garcia Prediction

Spence is 24-0 with 21 KO’s.  He is talented southpaw and he is the puncher in the fight. While Spence is a top rated fighter, I don't think he's in an elite status (like everyone else.) Why do I say that? When he gets in a fight that he considers to be "big" he starts out way to anxious.  It cost him the fight in the Olympics (he should have never lost that fight) and he was down big after five rounds against Kell Brook.  He even lost a wide decision to Brian Carlos Castano in the unpaid ranks.  He has a weird habit of dropping his head to the right when he throws the jab making him vulnerable to right hand counters. Spence is indeed fast with a thudding jab, but is he any faster than Adrien Broner? (who did not lay a glove on Garcia.)  He’s beaten up good-quality fighters. Spence is an excellent body puncher and he has world-class hand speed.

Garcia is 39 – 0 with 30 KO’s. With Garcia, it’s “all in the eyes” as he has an excellent level of concentration.  He constantly looks to punish to the body and or counter. Garcia is a fundamentally sound technician, solid in all areas. He can box and punch, he is precise, he jabs effectively and he lets his hands go impressively in combinations. He’s lost very few rounds in his professional career.

Prediction:

By fight time, Spence will have a significant weight advantage (as much as 15 pounds) and will tower over the 5’6” Garcia. Spence also has a big power advantage and while Garcia is a good puncher at 135 and even 140 pounds I’m not sure he has the firing power to affect Spence seriously with his shots.  That being said, this is a competitive fight and expect both to fight patiently during the first half. I’m betting the fight goes over 9.5 rounds at --160 odds.  Call me crazy but I also took a shot on Garcia to win.  Spence starts slow and could be down by four points after five rounds. If Garcia wins three of the last six rounds, he can get the decision.