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This Weekend (Early DLH Play)

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
+3.3 units posted plays

I just put this in, so I might as well post it. I'm a little worried this line will trend downward.

De La Hoya wins inside distance (+179) 2 units to win 3.58 units

I might put more on this but I wanted to make sure I got some action in at this juicy price. I know Forbes has never been stopped but those have been almost all sub 140 fights or made-for-TV Contender shorties. He also has never fought anyone remotely on the level of DLH.

I thought Alfonso would take Cotto deep and I was dead wrong. That was a case of Gomez being the naturally bigger guy. Now we have a similar case with Forbes being the naturally smaller man. Is he going to be tough enough to go 12 full rounds with Oscar?

The only argument for Forbes is that De La Hoya looks past him. I don't see it. De La Hoya hand picked Forbes as a victim to jump start his retirement tour. He picked a guy that he can look good against. He'll have almost every advantage from size to power to skill when he steps into the ring Saturday. If that isn't the formula for an exciting stoppage win, I think someone needs to step in and call off the PBF fight.

More coming later in the week.
 
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Posted: #2
Quote Originally Posted by HakAttack1:

He also has never fought anyone remotely on the level of DLH.

De La Hoya hand picked Forbes as a victim to jump start his retirement tour. He picked a guy that he can look good against. He'll have almost every advantage from size to power to skill when he steps into the ring Saturday.

This is my reasoning too.  I haven't decided to make the play yet because I'm debating on it and the under, but I will probably lock one of them up by tomorrow.  I just don't see DLH taking it the distance if he is able to look good and finish it, and he SHOULD have a good amount of opportunities. 

I hope he looks fantastic so the Mayweather/DLH line goes south.  I'd love to have Floyd around -200.

Bagel Sandwiches Suck
 
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Posted: #3

De La Hoya did hand pick Forbes. The question is why Forbes? Simple, not a threat in punching power. Oscar is the bigger guy, but Forbes has fought much bigger guys, but none near even a top contender ability. He fought on The Contender which has drawn a following for him vs Oscar. It's being broadcasted on HBO instead of PPV, the reason is that it wouldn't sell.

HakAttack1 Also, you can get +240 u11.5 at BookMaker. It's better that +179 for a half of a round less you get 35% more money.

 
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Posted: #4
As far as my view on the fight, it's difficult to place a large wager (total rounds) on what seems to be some major X factors in the fight.
Factors:
- Can Forbes's hand speed throw off Oscar enough so he won't get hit a lot? 
- Can Forbes's handle a barrage of power shots by Oscar?
- Can Forbes fight into the later rounds effectively (especially the championship rounds)?
- If Oscar wins the first 8 rounds decisively, without hurting Forbes badly, will he just stay the course, or will he try to KO him?
 
Everyone assumes Oscar will try for a KO, because in winning a UD, it will cause less interest in the Mayweather rematch. Oscar and his camp must see something in Forbes he feels he can exploit easily and impressively, but can he capitalize. I felt uneasy betting so much on Mayweather vs De La Hoya only cause of it was Golden Boy Promotions, and if De La Hoya won, it would have made the largest rematch payday in fight history. So you could say I was worried about some corruption, not De La Hoya actually winning.
 
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by BenFraLinz:

De La Hoya did hand pick Forbes. The question is why Forbes? Simple, not a threat in punching power. Oscar is the bigger guy, but Forbes has fought much bigger guys, but none near even a top contender ability. He fought on The Contender which has drawn a following for him vs Oscar. It's being broadcasted on HBO instead of PPV, the reason is that it wouldn't sell.

HakAttack1 Also, you can get +240 u11.5 at BookMaker. It's better that +179 for a half of a round less you get 35% more money.



Wow, thank you for pointing that bookmaker line out. As crazy as this sounds, I used do all of my betting except boxing at Bookmaker. I took almost all of my bankroll and moved it to 5dimes, because the boxing was so limited at bookmaker. I hadnt even looked at it in quite a while. Now, I'm seriously considering buying back in to bookmaker just to put a few dimes on that number.



 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by BenFraLinz:

As far as my view on the fight, it's difficult to place a large wager (total rounds) on what seems to be some major X factors in the fight.
Factors:
- Can Forbes's hand speed throw off Oscar enough so he won't get hit a lot? 
- Can Forbes's handle a barrage of power shots by Oscar?
- Can Forbes fight into the later rounds effectively (especially the championship rounds)?
- If Oscar wins the first 8 rounds decisively, without hurting Forbes badly, will he just stay the course, or will he try to KO him?
 
Everyone assumes Oscar will try for a KO, because in winning a UD, it will cause less interest in the Mayweather rematch. Oscar and his camp must see something in Forbes he feels he can exploit easily and impressively, but can he capitalize. I felt uneasy betting so much on Mayweather vs De La Hoya only cause of it was Golden Boy Promotions, and if De La Hoya won, it would have made the largest rematch payday in fight history. So you could say I was worried about some corruption, not De La Hoya actually winning.
 


I think you did hit the x factors here on the head and I think they are all valid but not enough for me to not envision Oscar stopping him.

- If Steve Forbes' handspeed is enough to stymie Oscar, I'd be shocked. I don't want to rag on the guy, but it wasn't enough to trouble Grady Brewer. In every fight that I've seen of Forbes, even in his wins, I have never thought "Oh there's a guy with elite, game changing hand speed. Good, but not great.

- I am hoping the answer to the second question is no. But I can't say for sure because Forbes has never really been badly hurt in a fight. He's also never been in with someone like Oscar. I'm not thinking that Oscar can one punch Forbes out of this fight, but hoping that a few rounds of work will accumulate.

-If Forbes gets this into the 11th, in my opinion, that will mean he has been competitive in the fight. I really don't think Oscar is in the mindset for carrying this guy 12 easy rounds. At least, I hope not. The world is watching. This is a showcase for him and I expect him to get it done.

As an aside, I am thinking about making a small covering play on Forbes by decision with the idea that if this thing goes to the scorecards, it will mean that it was a competitive fight and Forbes brought a great gameplan into the fight.
 
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Posted: #7
Bookmaker had the best overall total on the fight in my opinion. I use 5dimes often for their prop bets. They have such a variety, that you can often find some great value. Bookmaker had great odds on the election early (lol). I remember using sportsbook during the Bush vs Gore. After their 2nd Debate, Bush went from a favorite to getting 8/5. I bet Bush +160. After the last Debate, Gore was now getting 2/1, and I covered my Bush bet just in case. I risked $1,000 to get $1600 on Bush after Debate #2, then after Debate #3 I bet Gore $500 to win $1000. I ended up winning $1100 thanks to good old fashioned cheating down in the sunshine state. That was the first time I bet an election, I could have middled it an took an automatic win, but I decided to go with the gamble. If the max bets weren't limited so low, I would have middled it. Just a nice old story about gambling and politics.
 
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Posted: #8
I think that if Oscar can capitalize early with some of his strong left body shots, it will have an effect on Forbes. It will have to be done more on the ropes because I think in the center of the ring Forbes will be able to move out. Also, Forbes has a tendency to lean in for body shots in the center of the ring, which will give Oscar full opportunity to swing away with Forbes out of position (and Oscar won't have to worry about missing and getting countered big, because Forbes doesn't have the power).
 
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Posted: #9
I'm starting to believe in an Oscar ITD bet, but somehow it just seems a little too easy at 2-1. Do the books not know that this is supposed to be a showcase fight? Maybe Oscar will instruct the ref to step in if Forbes is ever close to being in trouble.

Two things though from this thread, Gomez is naturally bigger than Cotto? I didn't know that. Losing to middleweights on the contender doesn't make you a middleweight in my book.

Also, Forbes by decision is plainly a waste of money. He would have to put Oscar down multiple times and not lose a round to earn a draw on the cards. The incentive for GBP to cheat is simply too great for them to help themselves. Bet on a Forbes KO if you think there's any chance Oscar loses.
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by LetMeSpin:

I'm starting to believe in an Oscar ITD bet, but somehow it just seems a little too easy at 2-1. Do the books not know that this is supposed to be a showcase fight? Maybe Oscar will instruct the ref to step in if Forbes is ever close to being in trouble.

Two things though from this thread, Gomez is naturally bigger than Cotto? I didn't know that. Losing to middleweights on the contender doesn't make you a middleweight in my book.

Also, Forbes by decision is plainly a waste of money. He would have to put Oscar down multiple times and not lose a round to earn a draw on the cards. The incentive for GBP to cheat is simply too great for them to help themselves. Bet on a Forbes KO if you think there's any chance Oscar loses.


LOL at what's in bold.

Gomez was taller then then Cotto yes, but I agree he wasn't bigger.  Taller doesn't mean you are the naturally bigger guy.

Maybe it's just me, but I really think it's tough to get a solid read on this fight.  Should DLH win, no doubt about it.  DLH gets less active as the fight goes and even though Forbes is the much smaller man he has always been durable.  I just don't know if DLH will be active enough in the second half of the fight to get Forbes out of there.
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by LetMeSpin:

I'm starting to believe in an Oscar ITD bet, but somehow it just seems a little too easy at 2-1. Do the books not know that this is supposed to be a showcase fight? Maybe Oscar will instruct the ref to step in if Forbes is ever close to being in trouble.

Two things though from this thread, Gomez is naturally bigger than Cotto? I didn't know that. Losing to middleweights on the contender doesn't make you a middleweight in my book.

Also, Forbes by decision is plainly a waste of money. He would have to put Oscar down multiple times and not lose a round to earn a draw on the cards. The incentive for GBP to cheat is simply too great for them to help themselves. Bet on a Forbes KO if you think there's any chance Oscar loses.


Well I guess we can argue the definition of naturally bigger and whether Cotto or Gomez is naturally bigger. What I meant was Gomez had the advantage in height, reach and had fought at higher weight classes. In this fight, Forbes is at a disadvantage in height, reach and has fought at lower weight classes. That was the point I was making.

As for wasting money, you are probably right, but this is my thinking:

I think we can agree that Forbes isn't knocking DLH out. So, I'm laying 10 bucks on an 18-1 shot against a guy who is a gift decision away from being 1-4 in his last 5 years of action. And, I'm just covering my other action on the ITD bet.
 
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Posted: #12
HA, I understood the point you're making about Oscar and Forbes, but I failed to see the connection to the Cotto fight. I agree that Oscar can stop smaller guys he has completely outclassed, particularly ones that want to stand and trade shots with him like Gatti and Mayorga. I guess we'll see if he can pressure a slick guy like Forbes and stop him. It's not Forbes's hand speed that worries me, Oscar can certainly match him there, it's his legs and his style. I'd like to know how big the ring will be. And by all means, it's your money, so fire away on that decision prop. I just think some form of Oscar injury or cut ending the fight is more likely than Forbes winning on the scorecards.
 
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Posted: #13
I like the Love Child tonight, but I'm not willing to lay the -280. I wish there were some props for this fight. Anyways, added more to the DLH under:

De La Hoya/Forbes Under 11.5 (+180) 2 units to win 3.6 units

I'm glad 5 dimes added this prop. I like it better than the under 9.5 because I could see a late stoppage.
 
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Posted: #14
I like the love child as well HA1. & his nearly 5:1 ITD line. I played both with the Brit chalks.

GLA!
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Posted: #15
Adding a chalk parlay that I like alot for the weekend and a small play tonight.

Jesus Gonzales (-485)
Hanshaw/Dirrell Over 8.5 (-280)
Firat Arslan (-350)

2 units to win 2.21 units

Gonzales/Richardson Under 9.5 (+280) .5 units to win 1.4 units

I don't know anything about this Durrell Richardson character and can only assume this is another showcase opportunity for Gonzales. The guy only has 4 KO's so he doesnt appear to have much power and I figure the decision is in the bag for Gonzales. Gonzales fights awful opposition, but has shown the ability to stop them. I guess this is a step up, but I like the value in the under. Also, Gonzales seems to spend alot of time on the canvas, so that covers me a bit there too.

I would have thought the Dirrell Over would have been exorbitant. I don't know why it is only -280, but ill take it. If Hanshaw can stay in there 12 rounds with RJJ, I think he can go 9 with Speed Racer.

I love Arslan in this spot against Wilson. Everyone thinks Wilson has a shot at the KO, but he didn't come close against Flores and now hes stepping up on foreign soil. Arslan isnt great but I'm not sure how good you need to be to win 7 rounds from Ding-A-Ling man.

 
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Posted: #16
looks like Gonzalez won a 12 rd. decison, advancing the parlay but dropping the under. I havent seen details yet, but ill take it because i like this parlay to hit.
 
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Posted: #17
Andre Dirrell wins 10 round decision (+161) 1 unit to win 1.61.

Dirrell gets a terrible rap because of the Curtis Stevens fight. I don't care for his running style, but I just think he will score enough to win this fight. Hanshaw is too rough around the edges to deal with the frustrating style.
 
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Posted: #18
I can't remember the last time an American went to foreign soil and stole the show. If it goes to the cards... no way. Ding went over there to collect a large paycheck. No more, no less. I think this is often overlooked by people when capping boxing. You have to understand that the fight game has been cleaned up, but it is still the shadiest sport in American history. I doubt Ding is going to come out guns blazing and KO the hometown hero. He might not make it home alive....
 
 
However, I highly doubt that he is going over there to lay down. Another loss and he is totally shot, and will have trouble making money down the road. Arslan by decision is my play in this one.
 
Another random thought:
 
Floyd Mayweather will always be 8 rounds to 4 better than DLH. That being said, my money is on DLH in the rematch. It just seems like these two are going to play this out for all it is worth. If Oscar was to win the rematch with Floyd Sr. in his corner, it sets the stage for the biggest rubber match in boxing history hands down. It wouldn't shock me if Floyd allowed himself to be "robbed" on the cards. He wouldn't lose much rep wise, nor would his legacy be hurt. Winning the rubber match against DLH would be the cap to his career. Just a theory.....
 
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Posted: #19
I like the Dirrell play. I just talk myself into -125 for a little bit. Shobox really does a great job of putting together some of these cards.
 
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Posted: #20

Um, I played Jesus Gonzales too and cannot find any news on the result. Where is it?

Anyone wants a easy bet, Dimitrenko over Rossy!

 
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Posted: #21
Holy God Andre Dirrell is good. This is the guy of whom Dan Rafael said he would rather watch cats puke than AD fight.
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by LetMeSpin:

Holy God Andre Dirrell is good. This is the guy of whom Dan Rafael said he would rather watch cats puke than AD fight.


Yeah I agree hes real good, even better than i expected i guess. I didnt get to see the fight but i should have played it straight like you did. He had a historically awful fight but hes obviously got the tools. I saw that Rafael comment too and disagreed with it. I kind of have a soft spot for technicians like Ruiz, Raheem etc. If everybody would rather watch Jesse Feliciano get his brain beat in because he is an "action" fighter, than I am happy to be in the minority.

Rough night in the account.down 3 units. Can get it back if Oscar comes to impress.
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by walktheline:

I can't remember the last time an American went to foreign soil and stole the show. If it goes to the cards... no way. Ding went over there to collect a large paycheck. No more, no less. I think this is often overlooked by people when capping boxing. You have to understand that the fight game has been cleaned up, but it is still the shadiest sport in American history. I doubt Ding is going to come out guns blazing and KO the hometown hero. He might not make it home alive....
 
 
However, I highly doubt that he is going over there to lay down. Another loss and he is totally shot, and will have trouble making money down the road. Arslan by decision is my play in this one.
 
Another random thought:
 
Floyd Mayweather will always be 8 rounds to 4 better than DLH. That being said, my money is on DLH in the rematch. It just seems like these two are going to play this out for all it is worth. If Oscar was to win the rematch with Floyd Sr. in his corner, it sets the stage for the biggest rubber match in boxing history hands down. It wouldn't shock me if Floyd allowed himself to be "robbed" on the cards. He wouldn't lose much rep wise, nor would his legacy be hurt. Winning the rubber match against DLH would be the cap to his career. Just a theory.....


I agree about Dingaling but my parlay was just killed and I dont know if i can risk a straight bet. Ding is a nice guy and all and he had his ESPY moment but he looked shot in his last fight. He got himself a payday but i dont think it will amount to more than that.

I can't agree with an idea that Floyd would even have it in the back of his mind to lose the rematch in any fashion. The guy is the p4p king and if he loses his 0, he'll lose that title and all of the money that goes with it. I'm of the opinion hes in boxing for the next 5 years, no matter what he says, so he wont want that.
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by Coweringbeef:

Um, I played Jesus Gonzales too and cannot find any news on the result. Where is it?

Anyone wants a easy bet, Dimitrenko over Rossy!




Yeah i couldnt find it either at first, i ended up googling Houston Boxing and found a site saying he outpointed him.
 
 
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Posted: #25

I don't think he'll be around another 5 years. He knows he will lose well before then. He would also have to fight Cotto at some point. If he loses to DLH, not many people are going to think any less of him. He won't lose a cent of money either. He may or may not want it. I do know one thing - the thing he wants the most is

If the last fight was scored as close as it was and Floyd easily won AT LEAST 8 rounds.. GBP could easily steal a win with a slightly better DLH performance, even though they might not have to. I just have a gut feeling that the fix is in when it comes to those two fighting again... it is good for everyone - boxing, the fans, floyd, oscar, hbo, etc etc

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