Weekend Picks (11/15/07 - 11/17/07)

YTD: 43.01 units risked, +14.37 units

Jesus Soto Karass vs. Juan Manuel Buendia
Under 9.5 (+160)
1 unit

This appears to be a great matchup between talented young welterweights tonight on Versus, but I think that hard-hitting Soto Karass has enough of the experience edge to make life very tough for Buendia.  It's apparent that Buendia hasn't gotten much experience at the higher level, while Soto Karass seems on the verge of making a jump to the upper echelon of the welterweight division.  It's not all Buendia's fault, as he was scheduled to fight veteran Oscar Diaz, but that ended in the first round after a clash of heads opened a cut on Diaz.  Buendia did beat Israel Cardona, but at that point, Cardona was pretty faded.  Prior to fighting Buendia, Cardona had come out of a four-year layoff to knockout two journeymen with losing records.  (And after outpointing Buendia, Cardona got KO'd in three rounds by young prospect Mike Jones).  Before the Cardona fight, Buendia lost on points to Jose Antonio Ojeda in a rematch of their first contest, which ended in a draw.  Meanwhile, Soto Karass KO'd Ojeda in the third round in August.  Soto Karass also owns recent KO wins over other decent fighters: Michael Rosales, Luciano Perez, and Vince Phillips.  The Rosales KO looks especially good considering what Rosales did to Americo Santos on Telefutura about a month ago.  Plus, Soto Karass has experienced decision losses to Yuri Foreman and Freddy Hernandez, with those occurring over two years ago.  The experience of these fights is invaluable to a young boxer, and Buendia just hasn't fought at the same level as Soto Karass.  As a result, I'm expecting Soto Karass to take the fight to Buendia and eventually win by a stoppage.

Interesting to see Soto over 3 lbs. heavier than JMB is. Take note of that if playing a side or a Total.

I just kan't wrap my mind around this one on a side. So I'll barely agry on the LOW call A2C. I do this is as the kind of fight w/ 2 young guns (both beaten, but neither has been stopped), looking to make an impression. I also like the change of opponent to mess w/ HR for a while & took his UP & him as a side. HR is in better shape and active of late (which explains itself). I like that, but HR is an odd ball guy, who can look very good at times, & still get at least buzzed possibly stopped when he appears to be in full control of the evening. Though Kauffman seems to be trying to fix some of this, we shall see.


bigeiii

I took Buendia against Karass, these odds are far too wide.  Cameron Dunkin has been on a roll lately with his fighters, I'm hoping the trend continues.  Karass is one tough cookie, but I don't see he him rising past the Versus-Telefutura level.

I see that you already played the over in the Rahman fight Bigs, but I would be leery of that.  Does Zuri have any chin left?  I am wondering if that Guinn KO following the Brock KO was an indicator that it is completely gone.  I see what you are saying about Rahman starting slow, but I am pondering whether Zuri's chin is already half shattered.

That's a fair point. This is more of a curveball switching from having to fight a short guy to the tall guy on min' notice. My take is this may throw HR off, & HR is on & off himself. He'll be kinda hot for a couple of fights, then kinda ho-hum. Zuri has not a single Stoppage as a Heavy, so he has to hunt & peck to win. That takes time, so I'm just hoping that Zuri is game enough to go a few rounds. Though I'd be surprised if HR did not win this ITD either way.


bigeiii

Is that you Marshall?  Sounds like you read Graham Houston.

I love GH's work. EPIC source of tendencies, strengths, weaknesses. GH might be the best in the business, for previews, & that's saying something. I read his work every single day. Great stuff.


bigeiii

BTW: Fullbrights, you like anything for the Filipino re-match??? I'm split. But it sure looks like it could be a very good fight. TIA, if you can.

bigeiii

Florante Condes vs. Muhammad Rachman
Rachman +200
.5 Unit

Minimumweights Florante "The Little Pacquiao" Condes and Muhammad "Predator" Rachman meet Friday in a rematch of their July, 2007 brawl where Condes won a split decision.  Although  (Note: The line closes at 11 PM EST tonight).  Prior to their July meeting, Rachman hadn't lost a match in nearly 9 years.  On the surface Rachman's record is an impressive one: 61-6-5 (31 KO's), although a large portion of those fights were held in Indonesia where Rachman was unquestionably fighting numerous inexperienced no-name opponents.  However, one could make the same argument for Condes, whose 22-3-1 (20 KO's) record includes at least 13 wins against equally unimpressive opposition in the Phillipines.  I look for the rematch to go the distance (the oddsmakers have set an over 11.5 rounds proposition at a steep -275) and am siding with Rachman, leaning on his value in what should be a very close fight and slightly due to his experience, questionable as it may be.

Jesus Soto Karass vs. Juan Manuel Buendia
Under 9.5 (+160)
- 1 unit 

Tough break on the under, I thought that Buendia was out of there in the 2nd. 

Just a heads up, I don't think that the Rachman-Condes tilt is happening this weekend.  I was surprised when I saw that odds were offered because I had read a while back that the fight date was moved (I believe it was due to an injury).

Nice call on the over in the Rahman fight Bigeiii, he looked like trash.

Yeah, he is a solid information source, but I try not to read his opinions/predictions on fights too much. I am the original opinion type of bettor and don't really like to have any bias play in to a wager.

Florante Condes vs. Muhammad Rachman
Rachman +200
.5 Unit 

I think you're right FB.  GH had a preview of the fight up, but boxrec doesn't have it on the schedule, and I ran across an October article saying that the bout was pushed back until December.  I'll probably resubmit the play when it happens...Regarding the Soto Karass under loss, that happens sometimes when you have little info on the other opponent's chin.  All I knew was that Buendia hadn't fought at the same level as Soto Karass, and I figured that Soto Karass would overwhelm him.  But Buendia definitely can take some heat, so I won't be betting on him getting KO'd in his future matches.

YTD: 44.01 units risked, +13.37 units

I don't think Guzman would want the never was Mayweather Sr. fighting for him at any time; taking a crack hit, now that's a different story he would probably pass that job along to old man Mayweather.

Any1 else wondering if Ward gets exposed tonite? Roger Cantrell is a LightHeavy who is coming down in Weight for this one. Ward does not have the best Beard in the business.

I have Alex out from a Biak Parlay from last week. Not gonna do any more with AD on that, as he is a bit Euro sheltered, though I do view him as having a higher ceiling than Al.Po. does.

The Heavyweight fight on Showtime looks interesting. I like the Low on that one.

I don't know why Lopez is a 20:1 fave? Might try something here as well.

Agry w/ Fullbrights on Drozd, added VV as well.

GLA!
bigeiii

Missed the 1st LOW+$$$ Total in a very physical opening bout last nite. Hit the 2nd UP+$$$ Total as HR is the only Heavy who can look quite suspect while still putting his man thru the ropes, and onto the floor. HR won as a Parlayed side. Still need my Hokies to close that. A good nite, but could have been even better.

bigeiii

As posted in the other thread I think that Ward looks impressive tonight and like the under here, it looks like others do also as the price has risen some.

You really went out on a limb with that Rahman pick.

I'm hoping that we get another crack at you guys in the conference championship, but I am not so sure about BC this weekend.

Even though Zuri kan't crack an egg w/ his shots, I felt further away from the (tree) trunk than it looked from the ground Fbs. I like HR, he's the only good smack-talker/tix-seller who gets off sans any cursing. But the best I can do to describe his Dexy Midnight Runner, 1 hit career defense is: adventurous. You just never know when a shot will get thru and scratch his already scratched up Chin. Some1 will stretch HR out b4 he retires.


bigeiii

I hope you know that I was joking, I wasn't talking about you playing the over, but rather commenting on the Rahman SU play at -2500.

Yah; exactly. HR has some offensive Talent (when he uses it properly, it's not bad, not bad at all), but he has a swiss cheese sieve of a defense. & it only opens up all the further the longer the nite goes.


bigeiii

I DNK he'd done this, but this is exactly what I mean about HR.
Nice guy. Easy to like. Too bad his inRing defense is not the equal of himself as a person.


bigeiii

Joan Guzman vs. Humberto Soto
Guzman by Decision (+120)
1 unit

This is a really tough fight to pick, but I foresee Joan Guzman outboxing the powerful Humberto Soto for a close decision win.  Guzman's excellent at not getting hit, as he outpointed another big puncher (Jorge Barrios) to win a title in September 2006.  That experience could prove invaluable against Soto, whose been blowing through second-tier fighters throughout his vaunted winning streak.  This observation underscores one of Guzman's big advantages: Soto hasn't faced anyone of Guzman's caliber, while Guzman has experience against fighters similar to Soto.  Tonight, Guzman's slick moves could confound Soto in much the same way that Ivan Calderon outslicked Hugo Cazares in August. Soto will likely catch Guzman a few times, but Guzman's natural talents give him the ability to recover when the going gets rough.  There are some concerns about Guzman's inactivity (no fights since widely outpointing Antonio Davis last December), but Guzman's always taken long layoffs between fights in order to prevent his body from wearing down.  As a result, he's a young 31-years-old, which is important because Guzman's strength is his athleticism.  These athletic moves will be on display tonight, and while Soto won't be outclassed, I think that Guzman will clearly outbox him over the course of 12 rounds.

 

LOL you think he's doing that by choice?  The guy just looked like shit in a fight he was supposed to dominate ( didn't you bet him at -2500) and then he goes to talks to kids?  Ever heard Public Relations, or as you would say, PR?  LOL

 

Keep sposting winners

Good call on the decision prop.

on Guzman