Weekend Picks (5/9/08 - 5/10/08)

2007: +12.45 units
2008: -6.96 units

Michel Rosales vs. Mike Alvarado
Rosales (+215), 1.25 units
Rosales ITD (+495), 0.5 unit
Under 9.5 (+180), 1.25 units

While I originally thought this would be an even money match, some touts have taken Alvarado, and the line's moved considerably in the last 24 hours.  I'm on the other side because I like Rosales' experience and power edge.  Rosales has gone toe-to-toe with welterweight Jesus Soto Karass, and although he got KO'd in the 11th of that one, he held his own for most of the war.  Since moving down to 140 lbs, Rosales has KO'd all three opponents inside of 4 rounds.  At 5'11", Rosales is a big, strong light welterweight, and opponents haven't been able to cope with his power once they're forced to bang with him.  Meanwhile, Alvarado might be a better boxer, as he can use a jab to set up some shots and effectively move around the ring, but he's not going to win any awards for technical acumen.  Rosales is eventually going to draw him into a fight, and Alvarado's going to be hit with the sort of power he's never had to cope with.  At +215 on Rosales, and +495 on him ITD, I think there's a lot of value in predicting that Alvarado gets taken out.  And I like the under at +180 as a sort of hedge, because there's a good chance that Rosales, who's often flat-footed and hittable, gets popped by Alvarado during their exchanges.

Junior Witter vs. Timothy Bradley
Bradley (+365)
1.5 units

Witter's a good boxer, but I think he's getting too much credit for KO'ing Vivian Harris, who was basically an overhyped and had already been exposed by Carlos Maussa in 2005.  Sure, Witter's got some nice wins under his belt, but Colin Lynes and Andreas Kotelnik aren't the speediest of light-welters, and Witter basically won those fights by using his superior athleticism.  He won't have that edge against Bradley, who might be the fastest in the division.  While Witter's on the downside of a long, successful career, Bradley's just entering his prime.  I think Bradley can land more punches against Witter, who's not the most active fighter in the first place, and this will take Witter out of his game, as he'll have to do something other than wait for the counter.  Even though the fight's in the UK, neutral judges will be installed because the WBC belt's on the line, and Bradley should win enough rounds convincingly to take the decision (even it it's not "unanimous").

Omar Narvaez vs. Ivan Pozo
Under 9.5 (+145)
0.76 unit

I feel like getting a little afternoon action in, and this one stuck out to me.  We really don't know how much Pozo's got left since his war with Andrea Sarritzu last summer.  The fact that he's knocked out four opponents with a combined record of 1-41 since then doesn't do much to ease my concern about his ability to take a champion like Narvaez deep.  Also, you've got to think that Narvaez won't want to let this one go to the cards in Pozo's hometown.  Another factor in taking this under is that Pozo's got some pop, so there's a chance of him catching the aging Narvaez with something early.  I do expect Pozo to be highly motivated and fight gamely at the beginning of the fight, so if Narvaez weathers an early storm, will Pozo have anything left for the rest of the fight?  I'm betting that he won't.

I'm with you on the Under and will likely hit Bradley as well. Witter talks the talk but doing just enough to beat the Ndous and Corleys of the world doesn't get me thinking hes worthy of being a 4-1 favorite against someone who, like you said, is as athletic as Bradley.

I'm with you guys on the Alvarado under.  Let's do this.

Congrats on Bradley, your writeup put me over the top for putting a full unit on it.

Omar Narvaez vs. Ivan Pozo
Under 9.5 (+145)
+1.1 units

Michel Rosales vs. Mike Alvarado
Rosales (+215), - 1.25 units
Rosales ITD (+495), - 0.5 unit
Under 9.5 (+180), +2.25 units


Junior Witter vs. Timothy Bradley
Bradley (+365)
+5.48 units

+7.08 units on the week!

It's great to finally be out of the negative unit hole that I had dug for myself this year.  Regarding the fights, I thought that Rosales looked outclassed against the tight defense and sound boxing of Alvarado.  I agree with everyone on the board that there was no problem with the stoppage.  Rosales was getting wrecked at that point.  I didn't see the Pozo-Narvaez fight, but from what I read, Pozo looked out of his depth.  And I watched the Bradley fight on a crappy live stream, and I haven't had a chance to check out the Showtime replay yet.  But Bradley looked like he effectively used his hand speed to beat Witter to the punch, and Witter was getting hit flush in the head in the early rounds.  I'm glad that there wasn't a robbery.  I was also a bit surprised to see the Bradley line at +475 prior to the fight.  I thought it would continue going down when I got it at +365, but there must have been a lot of Witter money showing late.

Good insights, Weepaul.  That was my feeling about the post-knockdown rounds, too, as I thought Bradley looked more in control in the first 6 rounds.  I was screwing around with trying to plug my computer into my TV near the end of the fight, and I ended up missing some stuff, so I was a little in the dark as they read the decision.

Thanks for the input on Bradley. I had him straight @ +440 and by decision @ +1200. Unfortunately the bets were small, but I haven't hit a lot of 12/1 shots, so that was sweet.

Great job on the week A2C and all of you Bradley backers.  I didn't think the kid had it in him,  I just never really saw anything that special from him in the past.  He dealt well with Witter's style.


Very nice buddy!