Posted:
#1
2007: +12.45 units
2008: -6.96 units
Michel Rosales vs. Mike Alvarado
Rosales (+215), 1.25 units
Rosales ITD (+495), 0.5 unit
Under 9.5 (+180), 1.25 units
While I originally thought this would be an even money match, some touts have taken Alvarado, and the line's moved considerably in the last 24 hours. I'm on the other side because I like Rosales' experience and power edge. Rosales has gone toe-to-toe with welterweight Jesus Soto Karass, and although he got KO'd in the 11th of that one, he held his own for most of the war. Since moving down to 140 lbs, Rosales has KO'd all three opponents inside of 4 rounds. At 5'11", Rosales is a big, strong light welterweight, and opponents haven't been able to cope with his power once they're forced to bang with him. Meanwhile, Alvarado might be a better boxer, as he can use a jab to set up some shots and effectively move around the ring, but he's not going to win any awards for technical acumen. Rosales is eventually going to draw him into a fight, and Alvarado's going to be hit with the sort of power he's never had to cope with. At +215 on Rosales, and +495 on him ITD, I think there's a lot of value in predicting that Alvarado gets taken out. And I like the under at +180 as a sort of hedge, because there's a good chance that Rosales, who's often flat-footed and hittable, gets popped by Alvarado during their exchanges.
2008: -6.96 units
Michel Rosales vs. Mike Alvarado
Rosales (+215), 1.25 units
Rosales ITD (+495), 0.5 unit
Under 9.5 (+180), 1.25 units
While I originally thought this would be an even money match, some touts have taken Alvarado, and the line's moved considerably in the last 24 hours. I'm on the other side because I like Rosales' experience and power edge. Rosales has gone toe-to-toe with welterweight Jesus Soto Karass, and although he got KO'd in the 11th of that one, he held his own for most of the war. Since moving down to 140 lbs, Rosales has KO'd all three opponents inside of 4 rounds. At 5'11", Rosales is a big, strong light welterweight, and opponents haven't been able to cope with his power once they're forced to bang with him. Meanwhile, Alvarado might be a better boxer, as he can use a jab to set up some shots and effectively move around the ring, but he's not going to win any awards for technical acumen. Rosales is eventually going to draw him into a fight, and Alvarado's going to be hit with the sort of power he's never had to cope with. At +215 on Rosales, and +495 on him ITD, I think there's a lot of value in predicting that Alvarado gets taken out. And I like the under at +180 as a sort of hedge, because there's a good chance that Rosales, who's often flat-footed and hittable, gets popped by Alvarado during their exchanges.
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