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Weekly Donkey Plays

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Posts: 4377
Posted: #1
2006 Results (March-July): +19.2 units (+$1,920)
2007 Results: +42.25 units (+$4,225)
Last week: +9.3 units (-$930)
2008 to Date: -23.09 units (-$2,309)

Well last week was absolutely brutal, no other way to describe it.  Worst week I think I have ever had losing nearly a G.  I have had flashbacks all week to the Rubio-Ornelas fight, just kidding, but that one was extremely tough to swallow as I felt very confident going in.  Gotta couple of parlay plays down already including a very small one in the hopes of landing a mega millions jackpot type cash.  Not much action out there this week, but there are a few interesting matchups that could warrant outcome plays.  Tomorrow night's special Shobox broadcast should be a good one.

1 unit to win 2.94
Andrade-Bute over 10.5 (-230)
Escalante (-230)
Fragomeni-Kraj over 9.5 (-285)
Kessler-Haussler under 11.5 (-240)

.35 of a unit to win 25.9
Enoki (+315)
Guinn (+550)
Over 10.5 in Bute-Andrade (-230)
Over 9.5 in Fragomeni-Kraj (-285)
Escalante (-230)
 
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Posted: #2
you and me both. and already down 3 units from the upset last night. guess roids and stopping roids and then boxing don't mix. i've been downgraded to capmaster1000.



 
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Posted: #3
I will be at the Bell Center tonight for Lucian Bute vs Andrade. The Over (-230) is my bet for tonight. Bute said in the media this match will be long.


Link
 
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Posted: #4
I will settle in for these fights.
I think Ive seen Andrade a few times. Once was him being hammered by Kessler and not going anywhere so the Over is probably pretty good
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by NJDevils:

I will settle in for these fights.
I think Ive seen Andrade a few times. Once was him being hammered by Kessler and not going anywhere so the Over is probably pretty good


Yeah he is rugged, but sloppy.  His chin has proved to be like granite up until now, dare I say Margarito-esque.  I think Bute wins a clear cut decision tonight and don't think he can stop Andrade; of course the odds indicate so.
 
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Posted: #6
Well, 0-2 on the parlay.  Not surprised that the small long shot one got shot down, but I really liked the other.  Just read a bit about the cruiser fight in Italy today, that blows; losing is never fun, but technical decisions are killer.  Wouldn't be surprised if the cut really wasn't that bad and the Italian officials knew their boy was already up so decided to call it a day.
 
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Posted: #7
Had to play Guinn ITD at where it was, rediculous line in my opinion.  Definitely worth a play.  Hopefully he doesn't sleep walk and brings it tonight, as bad as it sounds he still has talent.  He has always fought decently against taller fighters, so who knows.

.40 of a unit on Guinn ITD (+2215)

Backed Bute by decision, this should be an excellent matchup for him stylistically.

1.41 units on Bute by 12rd decision (-141)

1.5 units to win 1.4
Bute (-300)
Escalante (-220)


 
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Posted: #8
Well my original bets on Andrew "Crapper" Lewis got no-actioned at at a little bit of a better line after the fight was postponed.  Had to play him again though, here's hoping he drops a deuce pre-fight tomorrow.  I think Eastman is done and I'm willing to take nearly 3-1 odds to find out if Lewis still has something in the tank (or colon).

2 units on Lewis (+260) vs Eastman

.80 of a unit to win 1.7
Bute by 12rd decision (-144)
Hearns (-330)
Haussler-Kessler under 11.5 (-240)

.30 of a unit to win 3.03
Bute by 12rd decision (-144)
Hearns (-330)
Kessler-Haussler under 11.5 rounds (-240)
Lewis (+255)
 
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Posted: #9
I thought that Escalante-Oliver was the main event tonight.  Was it the opening bout of the card?  I didn't even get to see, just turned it over there and saw the result on fightnews.  Not complaining, but that's weird.  Is the Larry Mosley fight the main event?  What weird placement of fights on the card, Escalante-Oliver was the definitive headline fight in my mind.  Read like Escalante brutalized him, I'll take it and move on to Bute.  I knew I should have played the KO angle on the under here and hoped for some follow up effects of Oliver getting KOd last time out.
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by Fullbrights:

Well, 0-2 on the parlay.  Not surprised that the small long shot one got shot down, but I really liked the other.  Just read a bit about the cruiser fight in Italy today, that blows; losing is never fun, but technical decisions are killer.  Wouldn't be surprised if the cut really wasn't that bad and the Italian officials knew their boy was already up so decided to call it a day.


fbrights

i watched the italian fight

frago was winning, but you did get screwed

the fight was close, the cut was nothing, and they knew the hometown guy was up

they rushed to the scorecards....total B.S. tech decision
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by ghostkid:



fbrights

i watched the italian fight

frago was winning, but you did get screwed

the fight was close, the cut was nothing, and they knew the hometown guy was up

they rushed to the scorecards....total B.S. tech decision




Appreciate it man, that's what I feared.  Seeing as how it was a WBC title fight I figured open scoring was being used and they may have just packed it in at the 1st sign of blood with the title secure for the Italian.
 
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Posted: #12
Man I hope Boxrec is correct with the Guinn result, nothing up at fightnews yet.



Sometimes the big wins come from the least likely of sources.  Please be right.


 
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Posted: #13
I almost just had a nervous breakdown in that last round, what heart by Andrade, but I still think my Bute bets are good and he will get the nod.  Thank goodness there wasn't another round.  I'll take a little hometown refereeing. 
 
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Posted: #14
Every Donk has his day.  Awesome night, aided by a very friendly Canadian ref.  Last week has become a distant memory a lot sooner then I thought it would.

Lost the 1st two parlays of the week, -1.35 units on those.
.40 of a unit on Guinn ITD (+2215)
1.41 units on Bute by 12rd decision (-141)
1.5 units to win 1.4
Bute (-300)
Escalante (-220)

.80 of a unit to win 1.7
Bute by 12rd decision (-144)
Hearns (-330)
Haussler-Kessler under 11.5 (-240)

.30 of a unit to win 3.03
Bute by 12rd decision (-144)
Hearns (-330)
Kessler-Haussler under 11.5 rounds (-240)
Lewis (+255)

Up a few bucks shy of $1,000 (10 units) for the week.  If Lewis and the Kessler under come in tomorrow this is an all timer that I won't soon forget.  A big thank you goes out to Guinn for icing the big Canadian (see what happens when you throw punches) and Bute's personal Canadian ref.

 
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Posted: #15
Man, that Andrade / Bute match was awesome! Bute has dominated 10 of the first 11 rounds but that last round was

Nobody around me knew if the ref has ended the bout or if Bute has the decision. I have listened to the radio when returning home and everybody said that Bute (the home favorite) stole this bout. There will be a rematch I'm pretty sure...

For J.-F. Bergeron... that was a joke! His career is just over! 
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by Chando16:

Man, that Andrade / Bute match was awesome! Bute has dominated 10 of the first 11 rounds but that last round was

Nobody around me knew if the ref has ended the bout or if Bute has the decision. I have listened to the radio when returning home and everybody said that Bute (the home favorite) stole this bout. There will be a rematch I'm pretty sure...

For J.-F. Bergeron... that was a joke! His career is just over! 


Were you at the fight?  That last round was as dramatic as it can get, way too dramatic for Bute bettors.  I'm sure we will probably seem a mandated rematch.  And yeah, Bergeron is a joke.
 
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Posted: #17
Yes I was at the Bell Center last night. We were standing up in the stands cheering for Bute in the 12nd round but that last 20 seconds were frightening. That was a bad call from the ref in my opinion. Anyway, I had Over 10,5 rounds. Man, Andrade is able to receive punches. He was not exhausted and had no marks at all after the bout. He deserve a rematch in the next year.
 
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Posted: #18
Why the big deal about the ref in the last sequence? Bute beat the count and the clock had reached 0:00 remaining before he was up. I think it would not have mattered
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by Chando16:

Yes I was at the Bell Center last night. We were standing up in the stands cheering for Bute in the 12nd round but that last 20 seconds were frightening. That was a bad call from the ref in my opinion. Anyway, I had Over 10,5 rounds. Man, Andrade is able to receive punches. He was not exhausted and had no marks at all after the bout. He deserve a rematch in the next year.


Well, congrats on your cash and a fun night at the fights.  It looked like an awesome atmosphere.

Yeah, I mentioned earlier in the thread that Andrade is Margarito-esque.  I stand by that, he is less skilled and a tad slower, but he is definitely cut in the same mold.
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by NJDevils:

Why the big deal about the ref in the last sequence? Bute beat the count and the clock had reached 0:00 remaining before he was up. I think it would not have mattered


Maybe..Maybe not.  He was up already when the ref looked back and started chastising Andrade for leaving the corner, but even if the bell has rung and you are on your feet you have to show that you are able to continue to the ref.  You can't just be saved by the bell.
 
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Posted: #21
.80 of a unit to win 1.7
Bute by 12rd decision (-144)
Hearns (-330)
Haussler-Kessler under 11.5 (-240)

.30 of a unit to win 3.03
Bute by 12rd decision (-144)
Hearns (-330)
Kessler-Haussler under 11.5 rounds (-240)
Lewis (+255)

The great week continues with Kessler apparently dominating Haussler and scoring a highlight reel KO to cash a parlay for me.  If Lewis pulls it out tonight over Eastman it is a dream week for me.

Added a play at the greek.
.60 of a unit on Mendy-Naugler under 9.5 (+335)
Interesting that this fight is taking place in my home state, usually guys with any kind of a name come here to take on guys of the 10-41 type mold as a tuneup/stay busy fight.  I think I have seen Naugler on ESPN before, but don't really remember much about him.  That said, he's never been stopped hence the odds, but I think his last fight may be telling of that streak ending.  He was dominated and dropped by Brinkley over the distance.  Mendy is pretty skilled having seen him in the Shobox 168 lb. tournament that Showtime put on a few years ago and I think that he can be the man to end the streak.  Not a big play, but I think there is some value here and with the way my week has gone so far I'm feeling lucky.
 
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Posted: #22
great weekend for you fullbrights.  you'll be up for the year in no time.


 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by capmaster2000:

great weekend for you fullbrights.  you'll be up for the year in no time.




Well, a Lewis win would have definitely made it a reality sooner then later.  Just have to keep grinding away, 2008 hasn't been my best year that's for sure.
 
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Posted: #24
2 units on Lewis (+260) vs Eastman
.30 of a unit to win 3.03
Bute by 12rd decision (-144)
Hearns (-330)
Kessler-Haussler under 11.5 rounds (-240)
Lewis (+255)
.60 of a unit on Mendy-Naugler under 9.5 (+335)

My luck ran out. Close, but no cigar in Guyana.  No info on the Mendy fight, saw where he won a UD on boxrec.

Won 8.71 units for the week, almost washing out last week's disaster.





 
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by Fullbrights:



Well, a Lewis win would have definitely made it a reality sooner then later.  Just have to keep grinding away, 2008 hasn't been my best year that's for sure.


i was more thinking enoki... that would of been phenomenal. 
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