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Who am I Picking? Floyd Mayweather v Sugar Shane Mosley

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Posted: #26

Sportsbook.com still has:

Mayweather  -365

Over 11.5  -365

 
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Posted: #27
how is this a terrible line? if u like mosley your getting a gift. Smile and thank the lord for this opportunity. If u like FMM wait for the props and bet him on decison. He couldnt knock out Marquez who was a blown up circus clown for him. If you like FMM save the juice and bet the decision prop. Inactivity negates knockouts. He is not Pac who throws 90+ punches a round, he is a 35 punch a round guy. Good luck against Shane because he will actually fight back. Its about time we found out what Money was made of and as long as Jan 2009 Shane shows up we will all get our moneys worth.
 
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Posted: #28
"My “boxing acumen” (LOL) is the reason I’m picking Mosley to win. My prediction has nothing to with any disdain for Mayweather. If that were the case I would have picked someone else to beat him by now. But I haven’t. And that’s because I respect Mayweather’s skills (if not his careful self-management). It’s also because I respect Mosley.

Yes, I remember well what Forrest and Wright did to Mosley (and I disagree that Shane didn't make adjustments in the rematches, which were more competitive than the first fights). I don't believe that Mayweather can do what they did. Not because I think Mayweather isn't as good as those two excellent boxers -- he's better in a pound-for-pound sense -- but because I don't think he's as big as they are and it's obvious that he has a different style.

Mayweather does not have the range that the late Forrest had with his jab and he does not commit to his right hand the way the Viper did (nor does his right hand have the power Forrest's did). I do not believe that Mayweather is as effective at 147 pounds as Forrest was. I know Mayweather isn’t as effective at 154 pounds as Wright was, and neither was Mosley. Shane just found that out the hard way -- by actually getting in the ring with Winky. It says here that if Mayweather fought Wright at junior middleweight the same thing that happened to Molsey would have happened to him. Wright was way too big, strong and technically proficient for Mayweather to cope with. Mosley was durable and game enough to make their first bout competitive for five rounds. I don't even think Floyd could have done that.

It's silly to compare Mayweather with these rangy 6-foot-tall technicians. It's even sillier to regurgitate Floyd's "There's-no-blueprint-to-beat-me" mantra. The blueprint is in his first fight with Jose Luis Castillo, a bout that he was lucky to win. It's in his victories over Zab Judah, Oscar De La Hoya, and even his knockout of Ricky Hatton. Floyd’s a defensive marvel but he’s not untouchable.

If you don't have a sharp boxing mind, you won't see that fact, and if a fighter doesn't have a strong will and self belief he won't be able to take advantage of that fact.

Contrary to popular thought, Mosley does have a sharp boxing mind (and trainer Naazim Richardson only enhances it). Mosley's will and self belief is as strong as any fighter who has ever laced on a pair of gloves. That‘s why I‘m picking him to win on Saturday." - Doug Fischer
 
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Posted: #29

Mofo I am not surprised Mosley is a popular pick. I mean a 5 time world champion getting great odds as a dog. I am just playing on my gut and I don't believe Mosley can win this fight on points. Even if he does somehow win on points, he will have the win rounds clearly for the judges to give it to him. I can't see him domintaing Floyd. He is too good not to have his moments but to clearly win on points to the level that the judges will give it to him. Sorry I just can't see it. Therefore to win he will have to KO the best defensive fighter of this era.

I certainly do not agree with Mosley's self belief. The big challenges he has faced he has mostly lost. So I really don't buy the "Mosley's will and self belief is as strong as any fighter who has ever laced on a pair of gloves". I have always questioned Shane's temperament and just because he has a new trainer doesn't sway my opinion.

Mafo for me, love him or hate him Floyd is one of the most gifted fighters I have ever seen. I have no doubt he will beat Pacquaio and I have no doubt he beats Mosley. We all want to see him lose but I have backed this guy since he was 10-0 and I see no reason to change now.

Mosley is a very talented fighter and therefore has to be a live dog but in my opinion nearly everything will have to go his way to take this. I can't see it

 

 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by DatMofoThere85:

"My “boxing acumen” (LOL) is the reason I’m picking Mosley to win. My prediction has nothing to with any disdain for Mayweather. If that were the case I would have picked someone else to beat him by now. But I haven’t. And that’s because I respect Mayweather’s skills (if not his careful self-management). It’s also because I respect Mosley.

Yes, I remember well what Forrest and Wright did to Mosley (and I disagree that Shane didn't make adjustments in the rematches, which were more competitive than the first fights). I don't believe that Mayweather can do what they did. Not because I think Mayweather isn't as good as those two excellent boxers -- he's better in a pound-for-pound sense -- but because I don't think he's as big as they are and it's obvious that he has a different style.

Mayweather does not have the range that the late Forrest had with his jab and he does not commit to his right hand the way the Viper did (nor does his right hand have the power Forrest's did). I do not believe that Mayweather is as effective at 147 pounds as Forrest was. I know Mayweather isn’t as effective at 154 pounds as Wright was, and neither was Mosley. Shane just found that out the hard way -- by actually getting in the ring with Winky. It says here that if Mayweather fought Wright at junior middleweight the same thing that happened to Molsey would have happened to him. Wright was way too big, strong and technically proficient for Mayweather to cope with. Mosley was durable and game enough to make their first bout competitive for five rounds. I don't even think Floyd could have done that.

It's silly to compare Mayweather with these rangy 6-foot-tall technicians. It's even sillier to regurgitate Floyd's "There's-no-blueprint-to-beat-me" mantra. The blueprint is in his first fight with Jose Luis Castillo, a bout that he was lucky to win. It's in his victories over Zab Judah, Oscar De La Hoya, and even his knockout of Ricky Hatton. Floyd’s a defensive marvel but he’s not untouchable.

If you don't have a sharp boxing mind, you won't see that fact, and if a fighter doesn't have a strong will and self belief he won't be able to take advantage of that fact.

Contrary to popular thought, Mosley does have a sharp boxing mind (and trainer Naazim Richardson only enhances it). Mosley's will and self belief is as strong as any fighter who has ever laced on a pair of gloves. That‘s why I‘m picking him to win on Saturday." - Doug Fischer


I'm glad you're picking Mosley based on thinking he is a good live dog, worst is when people wager against a guy because they hate him!

So kudos to you for that.


Floyd has never lost, Shane has numerous times.. that's not saying Shane isn't confident.. I believe he is, but the "true"  sharp mind and true self belief truly is with Floyd.

You have to question ones belief in themselves if they're using steroids (he was caught) to get an advantage.

Mosley should have fired his dad a long time ago, he took matches he couldn't win.. (Vernon twice and Winky Twice)- that's just "false belief in himself" or bad fighter management.

I hope we get a good fight.. and hopefully a good under card .. 5dimes doesn't have any fights listed on 5/1 besides Floyd/Mosley as of right now!

Good luck to whichever side you wager!
                         
 
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Posted: #31

What I posted earlier was actually from Doug Fischer's mailbag (a man who's knowledge I highly respect).

I'm actually picking Mayweather by dec but it's not a big bet because I'm not nearly as confident as some of the people on this forum. I'm predicting Mosley wins 5 rounds. Mosley in his prime would kill Mayweather and I have no doubt about that! What's crazy is that even though Mosley is 38, he's still the second most athletic person Mayweather will have faced (Zab Judah # 1).

-380 and above (on Mayweather) are TERRIBLE odds considering the risk.

 
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Posted: #32
Mayweather is a disgrace...wait til guys are finished to fight the big names or just duck and avoid them altogether
 
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Posted: #33

I like mayweather by UD in a close and spirited fight. I'm not going to place a wager on the fight bc I want to be able to see the fight and enjoy it. In the past, when I have wagered on "big events", I can't enjoy the action bc I'm caught between my wager and my passion. That being said Mayweather 116 - 112 or 115 - 113 by the judges.

Mosley has the talent but I not sure he has the patience to "outbox" PFM. He wants to bang, PFM wants to accummulate points (safety first) and win without taking the risks. Mosley is going to get his shots but PFM is going create distance and slow the pace down and work on the technical boxing.

If mosley can set traps that PFM falls into and he can steal rounds by using flashy punches and elevated connect rate (something unheard of versus PFM) then he has a chance...... or if he catch PFM with a bomb..... he needs to control the fight.....ie: RING GENERALSHIP

in the end, PFM will shoulder roll, counter over the looping right, he will slide/ pot shot and steal later rounds by sticking the jab (point accum.) ......Mosley will tire (Watch the Margo. fight ....we saw alot of holding and clinching after multiple punches thrown) and be frustrated PFM safety first routine

just my opinion

 
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Posted: #34

Well I am off to 'the dam' with zero access to Covers sob sob. Enjoy the fight guys.

If any man wants to feel really alive before he does he should do 2 things. Carnival in Brazil and Queens day (Friday) in Amsterdam..The best day guys. Really is aswesome...

Mofo Shane is Live for sure and if he wins back to the day job for me and no more boxing writeups for the forseeable future, but I believe Floyd is truly great and beats Mosley at anytime, anywhere. Good luck guys.

 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by licialen:

Mack,

Good write up and good luck to you on your bets.

Question: did you watch the "YouTube" video that GMO Navarro posted????  IF so what do you think about the weights, the Oscar issues, the "cherry picking" and Freddy Roach's comments about fighters, fights that were made and others that weren't made by  Team Pac-man?????  Does the video (if you believe the information) shed a new light on the this back and forth debate on who is fighting elite fighters and who is not ?????

 

Really want to hear your opinion


Please post the link so i can watch it

 
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Posted: #36
not he does I mean he dies
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by DatMofoThere85:

What I posted earlier was actually from Doug Fischer's mailbag (a man who's knowledge I highly respect).

I'm actually picking Mayweather by dec but it's not a big bet because I'm not nearly as confident as some of the people on this forum. I'm predicting Mosley wins 5 rounds. Mosley in his prime would kill Mayweather and I have no doubt about that! What's crazy is that even though Mosley is 38, he's still the second most athletic person Mayweather will have faced (Zab Judah # 1).

-380 and above (on Mayweather) are TERRIBLE odds considering the risk.



I agree for regular bettors this 4-1 thing is tough, and I feel Floyd will win but not by the points handicap which is -15 pts  at -115  so makes it a tough call.  I see Floyd winning 115-112 around there, cannot see Mosley getting blasted away.

As fight time nears I will make my wager.. if Shane goes higher like +16 pts I may take HIM and just root for a "close match".

These odds are crazy and for what supposed to be Floyd's biggest fight ever he's such a high favorite.

Almost makes me feel like a "steam" play ... big bettors make the line inflate then go the other way to cash in :-)

 I will be watching this with my friends and brother.. at his house so I will post the links to the fight before I leave that evening.

Good luck!
           
 
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Posted: #38

FOLLOW UP:

Both fighters need to start fast but make sure that they feel the other fighter out and if they get caught with a crowd and/or judge pleaser punch.....learn from that mistake.

PFM will need to stick and slide.... stay low and keep his distance. I don't believe the SSM reach advantage will be significant unless he starts to establish the jab like Oscar did. Stay in center of the ring..... if you get caught on the ropes use the ropes as spring board , cover up and pot shot SSM with a upper cut (he can be had with this punch when he is on the offensive and at close range). Lastly clean accurate punch location....expose the holes in SSM defense.....make  SSM work to find you ....ie: tire  out SSM (alot of you say SSM has excellent stagmina...... look at his last 3 fights...ignore the outcome.....look at the holding and he 38 yrs and inactive for 16 months)

 
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Posted: #39
licialen the thing is Mosley doesn't have a true jab  it's more of a "flick jab" not a jab that someone has to respect,in fact Mosley hasn't used a jab  since moving up to 147, he's flicks a few right jabs.. to set up the over hand right nothing more.

HMM Pts handicap is now at -14.5 (-115) it has dropped was (15 pts) yet the line has stood the same -460

I'm hoping it drops another point or so.

I have a feeling Floyd will end up at -390 and become a value bet with the pts handicap  or 12 rnd decision.


I will make my wager probably Saturday  evening when the line has leveled out (have a feeling it will drop a bit).


Good luck,
  
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by DatMofoThere85:

What I posted earlier was actually from Doug Fischer's mailbag (a man who's knowledge I highly respect).

I'm actually picking Mayweather by dec but it's not a big bet because I'm not nearly as confident as some of the people on this forum. I'm predicting Mosley wins 5 rounds. Mosley in his prime would kill Mayweather and I have no doubt about that! What's crazy is that even though Mosley is 38, he's still the second most athletic person Mayweather will have faced (Zab Judah # 1).

-380 and above (on Mayweather) are TERRIBLE odds considering the risk.



Fisher has been a Mosley cheerleader and a Floyd hater for years. He would never tell you Shane is losing this fight.
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by nuttyrich:




Almost makes me feel like a "steam" play ... big bettors make the line inflate then go the other way to cash in :-)



You know your boxing, but this statement is patently incorrect. Almost an urban legend. The way the limits work, not to mention the math, make this impractical, improbable, and infeasible.
 
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Posted: #42

Well I think if Sugar can get past 8 rounds he stands a good chance of winning this fight.

 

V

 
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Posted: #43

Quote Originally Posted by LetMeSpin:



Fisher has been a Mosley cheerleader and a Floyd hater for years. He would never tell you Shane is losing this fight.

That doesn't mean what he said isn't really true. I'd like to hear your counter-arguments to Doug Fischer's article.

 
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Posted: #44
Those of you who think Floyd will have an easy time with Shane==== ARE IN FOR A BIG SURPRISE. This is a very challenging opponent. If you think Money was cautious against a much smaller JMM,... what do you think his fight strategy will be against a true legitimate welterweight. If & when Floyd is forced to fight..he could be in big trouble. Remember Shane is the more powerful puncher.

Mack05

As for your point #1


I strongly disagree. The pressure will be mostly on Floyd because

1. Everyone expects him to win.

2. His enormous EGO.

3. Also Shane has been in just as many high profile fights as Floyd.


Don't under estimate the mental aspect of this fight. Mayweather says he is boxing for a pay check.
Shane is more interested in his legacy. If it comes down to a WAR. Which mental attribute do you think will be more important? I'll take the latter. I'm not saying that Floyd shouldn't be the favorite going in... because he is the best DEFENSIVE fighter I've ever seen box. but in the boxing game sometimes GUTS & WILL carry the day. Anyhow I'll gladly take the 15 points & take my chances on a close bout.




 
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Posted: #45
a couple of things to note to contradict some points made on this thread....

Both Mayweather and Mosley have great chins. Not good chins but great chins.

Mosley's fight against De La Hoya was the greater fight of his career. This may be a bigger fight but the de la hoya fight was more important in his career. I dont think you can cap this fight by saying Shane isnt ready for a stage this big.
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by DatMofoThere85:

That doesn't mean what he said isn't really true. I'd like to hear your counter-arguments to Doug Fischer's article.



My point was simply that you should consider his bias in picking this particular fight. I find it interesting that he fails to even mention Mosley's loss to Miguel Cotto, in which he was clearly outboxed by a man who is nowhere near the technician Floyd is. He also failed to hurt Cotto, and honestly, if you can look past the Margarito fight, he has not been a big puncher at all at 147 lbs. Shane went the distance with David Estrada several years ago. The biggest myth leading up to this fight is Shane's great advantage in punching power. He has none now that he's off steroids and still fighting well above his natural weight.
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by LetMeSpin:



My point was simply that you should consider his bias in picking this particular fight. I find it interesting that he fails to even mention Mosley's loss to Miguel Cotto, in which he was clearly outboxed by a man who is nowhere near the technician Floyd is. He also failed to hurt Cotto, and honestly, if you can look past the Margarito fight, he has not been a big puncher at all at 147 lbs. Shane went the distance with David Estrada several years ago. The biggest myth leading up to this fight is Shane's great advantage in punching power. He has none now that he's off steroids and still fighting well above his natural weight.




Shane wasn't mentally UP for some of the fights you mention above. He was also going through some personal problems.A flat fighter will have a hard time looking good. Boxing (at this level) is 80% mental. Floyd should bring out the best in Shane. If Floyd is crazy enough to trade (which he won't) he's in a world of hurt. Money better rely on his speed advantage & hope Mosley gets OLD, all at once in 1 night . I highly doubt that will be the case.
 
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Posted: #48
I just took Sugar at +725 for the tko or ko, I think this is a live play. The juice is too much for Floyd to win so I have stayed away. Best of luck for whatever plays yall do, but I hope Floyd gets his lights turned off!
 
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Posted: #49
Great post
GL
 
 
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Posted: #50
Nice call Mac!  Enjoy the cash you made on MONEY in Amsterdam!
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