CFL, First week of August

A 0-4 week, sorry for those that might have tailed.

17-14 ATS for the season, which puts my overall record in the KOC contest the past three seasons to 54% (142-121-6).

One play,....teams off a game that have had >2 turnovers tend to play well as away dogs their next game.

We have a query that has been 17-3 ATS

AD and DIV and p:HL and op:AW  and p:TO>2

translating.....an away divisional dog off a home loss that commited >2 turnovers in that game playing a team off an away win

Play:

1)  Roughriders +9

Good fortune everyone.

What does your query say about a coach who puts restrictions on his QB?

Stamps offense sputtered after 1st quarter last weekend.

What about Messam being let go!!

Reilly will destroy the Green Riders, ESKIMOS in a ROMP!!!

Teams with a lesser record than their opponents have been 267-225 ATS, or 54.3% (7-7 this season so far).

If that team is off a loss, this moves to 190-159 ATS,   or 54.9% (6-4 ATS this season).

Away dogs in this situation have been 115-84 ATS, or 57.8% (3-1 this season).

Home dogs have been 75-72 ATS (3-3).

Teams that have a winning percentage of >60% and favored playing a team <60%  have been 122-149 ATS or 45%, (1-4 ATS this year) ............in the NFL it hits 50.4%.

Clearly you don't know what you're talking about, you are an ignoramus and you're lazy at the same time.

Start your own thread and put out your picks....see if you hit more than 45%..... you haven't in the past, but there's no time like the present.

Here's another query related to the Calgary/Saskatchewan game played last week.

A home divisional favorite who benefited from their opponent having >2 turnovers (Calgary), who had <=2 turnovers themselves off an away win, have been 6-18 ATS and 13-11 straight up with an average line of -7.1.

HF and po:TO>2 and p:TO<=2 and DIV and p:AW and tA(W)>oA(W)

Still deciding whether I'll play the Lions.

Thanks guys,

Play:  

2)  Hamilton -7

Teams with a turnover margin disadvantage typically do well, especially off a loss....this query has been 15-5 ATS favoring the Tiger Cats.

tA(TOM) - oA(TOM) > .5 and AF and DIV

Will see if Johnny can make it happen for the Als

Thanks DCG.

1)  Roughriders +9 winner

I only saw the last half of the last quarter.  I still feel that the Riders will have to find a quarterback, though Z's stats look ok from this game.  Their defense looks stellar though, and I would rate them as the second best team in the league after you-know-who despite their mediocre record.  I'll look hard at taking them for the next few weeks.

Meanwhile Toronto's James Franklin experiment has met its end as their new quarterback will be Bethel-Thompson for the foreseeable future.  Kudos to him after being on 10+ different teams before finally becoming a starter,........if he becomes a star they'll make a movie about him.  Awesome comeback by Argos, who look like they may now be a team who a bettor could put money on going forward.  I am sure they're wishing they didn't have a bye right after their amazing comeback.

And, if you're the Redblacks, you'll have to pick yourself up off the mat after snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, which would have assured them dominance in the East.  If Johnny Manziel shows any signs of being a player in the CFL when playing versus the Tiger Cats, I'll consider taking them next week at Ottawa as 10+ point underdogs.

And congratulations to anyone who may have middled the Saskatchewan/Edmonton game, as the line opened at -9 and closed at -6'.....the final margin was 7.

Opportunities to attempt a middle when crossing the key numbers of 3, 7 and 10 are rare, and I didn't follow this as closely as I could have this week.  For those paying -110  to bet, would this have been an advantageous situation going into the game, assuming you got a number of 9 to start the week and had the opportunity to take -6' at the close?

Here's how I would have calculated the odds of hitting this before the game went off.

Using a query of:

HF and playoffs=0, there were 569 CFL resulted games in the database.....when adding and margin

there were 16 games that ended with a margin of 7 points exactly, and 14 that ended exactly at 8.  That's 30 games out of 569 total games....that is a percentage of 5.27%....and the margin was 9, 9 differing occasions. 

So using past history to calculate the margins that have presently themselves before......................... 30 times we would have won 2 units (by the margin landing exactly on 7 or 8),                                or 30 x 2 units =+60 units

9 times we would have won 1 unit  (by the margin landing on 9).                 or 9 x 1 unit    = +9 units

539 times we would have lost .1 unit.....539 x .1 unit = -53.9 units                                    -  53.9 units

                                                                                                 _____________________________

We would have calculated it to be to our advantage to go for the middle in this case as we would have profited 15.1 units out of 569 instances.                                                                                                                                    

There may be some math geniuses that would have calculated it differently, and if so, I'd like to hear how they might have done so, keeping in mind that I  scraped by with a "C" in statistics at school.

Dogbite, I just tweaked it to "1" instead of "1.5" which gives a 26-12 ATS result and makes the Lions eligible tomorrow.  Nice find!

tA(TOM) - oA(TOM) > 1 and AD and DIV and week < 15.5

The Stamps have me a bit paranoid about going against them, especially when the season is not half over yet.  I paid my bookie some money last week because there was a pretty good situation favoring going against Calgary, which the Stampeders rolled over and I paid the piper for it.  

Calgary is just an anomaly,....they just never seem to have bad games until it really counts.

1)  Saskatchewan +9 winner

2)  Hamilton -7 winner

Season to date 19-14 ATS, 57.6%

Well, Johnny has got nowhere to go but up, 4 interceptions in a half?...that is pretty incredible....we'll see by the end of the season if he is the next Doug Flutie or the next Troy Smith.  Evidently Flutie his first CFL year completed only 52% of his passes and had a boatload of interceptions too.

Doubtful I'll play the Lions/Stamps' game....lean to the Lions and the UNDER.

Early Indigo lines for next week.

Winnipeg -6    Hamilton     56  (this should be very high scoring)

BC          +2'  Edmonton   55  (would like the Lions as home dogs)

Ottawa    -13  Montreal     50  (doubtful the books have it that high)

Yes, well Dogbite, our inclination is to have action and default plays in the CFL are dogs and UNDERs, but the Stamps break all the rules.

I am taking Manley in National Rugby League getting +8' (they are now +9') as my only indicated play for manana. 

Should be some good WNBA possibilities for Sunday's games.

DB, "no" the short answer is, there isn't a public database like what killersports is, for rugby.  Evidently there are some very good cappers in Australia and perhaps they have had a database made privately.

I use a system that works across all sports except for baseball, and it has shown positive results for the NRL this season, but not for Australian Rules.

Indigo FYI there was a heated exchange between Buono and Lulay.  There must be some history here.  Bold prediction Lulay to the Alouettes next week lol.

Lulay traded for Johnny M., you heard it here first.

crazy

Watched the game here locally Dogbite, Manly won in overtime on what we would call a dropkick, which was pretty cool.

Played BC and UNDER for a quarter unit apiece as well, which was nice.

Good luck to you in the north american football season....if you want an awesome system, write to me in my inbox and I'll go over the parameters....works in NCAA buckets, CFL, NFL and NCAA football.....it is a bit esoteric, but it has a pretty good track record that you can verify on sportsdatabase/killersports.