CFL playoffs...."playoffs??!!"

CFL season-to-date 46-28 ATS

NFL season-to-date 44-30 ATS

Indigo lines

Riders pik Stampeders 44

Tiger Cats -4 Alouettes 42

Correction...season-to-date NFL plays 42-30 ATS.

Early plays NCAA FB

1)  Oregon State +7

2)  Ole Miss -105

Adding:

3)  Notre Dame -17

The Domers sit 5th in the college football rankings and will need a loss by Ohio State, Cincinnati or Georgia to have a hope of getting in the college football playoffs, and even then it is highly unlikely they'd get in.  I'd put Oklahoma State ahead of them if they beat the Sooners and Michigan also if they upset the Buckeyes this coming weekend.

Style points matter, and their loss to the Bearcats earlier in the year sits like an albatross around their neck.

They won't let up versus the Cardinal who will be hopelessly outclassed in this game.

NFL

Play:

Patriots -6

NFL......

I have found another site that has SDQL that works fine for the NFL.....gimmethedog.com

Thanksgiving day favorites have been 31-16 ATS and 40-7 straight up. away favorites 16-9 ATS and home favorites 15-7 ATS.

Sunday home favorites on the other hand have only been 44.7%....120-147 ATS, and only 41.5% if a divisional favorite 49-69 ATS

NFL

A Sunday away team in  week 12  that won their last game but failed to cover the spread.....11-26 ATS....VERSUS Browns, Chargers

A Sunday week 12 team that lost their last game SUATS and are an away favorite this week.....25-10 ATS (+4.1)...................................ON Falcons, Dolphins

Adding.....

2)  Falcons -1

3)  Panthers -1

1)  Patriots -6

FYI look at Dallas ats on thanksgiving, mostly as a favorite.  Omit the Cowboys on turkey day and ones winning % increases nicely.  Fade the Cowboys as a home favorite and it makes t-day even better. 

Day=Thursday and month=11 and t:team=Cowboys and line<0 and season>2009

Last game of the night t-day unders do very well too.  

can’t bet on either the lions or bears.  If I had to I would take the under.  

me… Vegas +7 

Bills -3.5 

under Bills

CFL:

As I mentioned last week I like both #3 seeds to step up.  

Hamilton (regular season) against the other playoff teams 4-6 SU.  1-1 against MTL.  Injuries played a big part of their downfall from their 15-3 2019 season. 

MTL didn’t fare well against the other playoff teams either.  We’ll see if T. Harris keeps his elevated play going in the post-season.  So far on paper his stats are healthy with the Al’s.  If MTL can run the ball and keep T. H. Pass attempts under 30 that has been successful for him since joining the Al’s. He has a nice TD to int. ratio.  8td passes to 2 ints.  Both ints came against the mighty Bombers. 

Adding:

4)  Vikings +.....will wait to try to get a +3 as the week unfolds

___________________________

1) Patriots -6

2)  Falcons -1

3)  Panthers -1

More than half of Harris' problem for the Elks was that the offensive scheme was terrible, which unfortunately for Elks fans, the management is gonna be the last to know.  The Elks will win about 3 games next season and it will dawn on the  general manager 2/3s of the season in that their coaching staff that he hired don't know what they're doing.

I like Montreal because they have a superstar running back and teams that rush a lot cover.

A Sunday week 12 team that lost their last game SUATS and are an away favorite this week.....25-10 ATS (+4.1)...................................ON Falcons, Dolphins

SHOULD READ ON Falcons, Panthers

100%

I have mentioned this before but it bears repeating.....teams that out rush ATTEMPT their opponent do excellent against the spread.  This will be severely tested tonight as Tampa Bay rushes less than anyone in the NFL.  However, they have crushed all opposition at home this year.

The query text for this is.....

rushes>o:rushes and playoffs=0 and day=Sunday

The results of this is 5033-1652 ATS (+7.3!!), 75.3%......this season 88-32-2 ATS (+8.5), 73.3%

Underdogs in this situation have covered 83% of the time.

It is pretty clear that if one can figure out who will rush the ball more that you will be a winner.

The Philadelphia Eagles have figured that out and have incorporated a Lamar Jackson-type scheme in which they are rushing for over 200 yards per game their last four games,...and, guess what?.....they have covered the expected 75% of their games the last month.

Deleting Patriots -6

Adding:

4)  Army +3'

_________________

3)  Notre Dame -17

2)  Mississippi pik

1)  Oregon State +7

Adding:

NFL

4)  Browns +3'

3)  Vikings +3

______________________

2)  Falcons -1

1)  Panthers -1

NCAA

1)  Ole Miss -105

2)  Oregon State +7

3)  Notre Dame -17

4)  Army +3'

Cowboys on Thanksgiving versus non-divisional foes.......

5-1 ATS (+8.5), 6-0 straight up, 1-5 O/U, average score 26.2-7.7

Away favorites on Thanksgiving, 13-6 ATS (Bills, Bears), when the total is  greater than 44 this moves to 9-3 ATS, 12-0 straight up, average score 34.3-19.2......Bills

AND.....the Elks clean house.....I give them credit for that.....I have no inkling on the pulse of the team and its management but the coaching staff clearly needed to go.

They'll need an offensive mind as a head coach or at least a very good offensive coordinator.... Kliff Kingsbury is an example of how the EE organization should be thinking.....Kingsbury's teams never won at Texas Tech, but he was a very good offensive mind and evidenced by his results with the Cardinals when he has surrounded himself with good defensive coaches, he's won 2 out of three games recently with a career backup quarterback running the team.

Chris Jones?.....pretty polarizing figure and probably the odds-on pick to coach them next year.....I wouldn't get him. 

Who will Wally recommend?

In the NFL 2021....

An away dog whose last game total was greater than their this week opponent's last game total....29-9 ATS....Vikings, Browns, Rams

season=2021 and AD and day!=Monday and p:total>op:total

An away dog whose last game total was greater than 45....37-15 ATS......Raiders, Steelers, Vikings, Rams

season=2021 and AD and day!=Monday and p:total>45

Adding:

5)  Steelers +4'

4)  Browns +3'

3)  Vikings +3

2)  Falcons -1

1)  Panthers -1

In 2021 an away dog that will be a favorite their next two games.....21-3 ATS.....Vikings, Browns

season=2021 and AD and n:F and nn:F

CFL playoffs...

Plays:

1)  Alouettes +4'

2)  Stampeders +1'

3)  Stamps/Roughriders OVER 41'

4)  Tiger Cats/Alouettes OVER 46'

I like both of the 3 seeds' coaches  in these match-ups.....both of them will have some tricks up their sleeve, and I expect both of them to take some shots down the field, if you're supposed to lose why would you play it safe and wait for the other team to make a mistake?

Play-off games in recent years have been higher scoring than the regular season.

Onto next week, I don't think the Bombers will cover both of their play-off games....teams that are unbeaten at home in the regular season tend to play surprisingly bad at home in the playoffs,.....if the Stamps get through, I believe they'll give the Bombers all they can handle....if it is the Riders I am not so confident in them giving Winnipeg a game....then I'd be more inclined to fade the Blue Bombers in the Grey Cup.

Again, I think back to when Calgary dominated in the regular season the past 6 seasons or so........they stumbled in the playoffs, losing to the vastly inferior Redblacks and Argonauts, as did Hamilton when they were the dominant team in the regular season two years ago, losing to the Bombers.

The CFL is a big-time regressive league, meaning what transpired before tends to regress to a mean...that doesn't often change in the playoffs.

Here are the results of past semifinal results from 2012 on.

Home                   Away

2012

Toronto 42-26       Edmonton

Calgary 36-30       Sask

2013

Hamilton  19-16     Montreal

Sask        29-25     BC

2014

Montreal   50-18     BC

Edmonton 18-10   Sask

2015

HTC         25-22   Toronto

Calgary    35-9     BC

2016

HTC         21-24   Edmonton

BC           32-31   Winnipeg

2017       

Ottawa     20-31   Sask

Winnipeg  32-39   Edmonton

2018

HTC         48-8     BC

Sask        18-23   Winnipeg

2019

Montreal  29-37   Edmonton

Calgary  14-35    Winnipeg

College football game number=12

Away dogs of less than 14 points with a 500 or less winning percentage with the lesser average scoring margin, that have lost at least one of their past two road games......84-49 ATS (+1.7) 63.2%

game number=12 and AD and oA(margin)>tA(margin) and line<14 and tA(W)<=.5 and tS(W@A, N=2)<2

ON Virginia Tech, Northwestern,  Charlotte, UMass, Cal, FIU, Hawaii, Tulsa, Tulane, Florida State

College football.......A game number 12 home dog of less than 14 points whose opponent is off an away game....51-33 ATS

ON La Lafayette, Boston College

College football.....a game number 12  away favorite off a home favorite win 126-82 ATS, 41-18 ATS if favored by more than 14 points.......Notre Dame

Adding:

5)  Navy -12'

6)  Wisconsin -7

7)  Miami, OH +1

8)  Florida State +2'

9)  Tulsa +6'

10) Tulane +5'

__________________

1)  Ole Miss -105

2)  Notre Dame -17

3)  Army +3'

4)  Oregon State +7