CFL week 1

My last  two seasons' posted picks

2016 >60%

2017 35-26 ATS

Lines should come out Monday....here are mine....

Peggers +3    Eskimos 54

Sasquatches -5  Argos 52

Stamps -8    Tiger Cats 50

Lions -7   Als  52

Argos, Tiger Cats and Alouettes all fall into a 35-10 early season underdog indicator,....as I've mentioned in past seasons, Vinny the head linemaker in Vegas can't be bothered with CFL games and assigns his drunken half-wit nephew the job of making CFL lines.  We never know what we'll get Antonio, if he's in his right mind or hungover on Monday morning.  From what I've heard he's been in and out of rehab and Vinny's wife is a very kind soul who keeps bailing him out of jail.

Bring it on Antonio!...let the games begin!

I am almost certainly playing the Alouettes and the Tiger Cats, and may play the Argos depending on the line.  

Doubtful I'll play the Eskimos unless Antonio the linemaker makes the Edmontonians the underdogs.

I will be on :

Saskatchewan, Hamilton and Montreal 

Great time of year!

Wish you the best 

Thanks guys....the Sasquatches could have found a missing link or bought themselves a clunker, will Zac do it, or won't he?

I am pessimistic about his chances.

The Roughriders' GM just called me  about coming up there to compete for the starting qb position....I am mulling it over.....

Well, alright, linemaker put the lines out.

Winnipeg        +6   Edmonton 53

Saskatchewan pik  Toronto 52

Calgary          -9    Hamilton 53

BC                  -6'  Montreal 49

Shocked by the Sasquatch line, but about half of the weeks there's gonna be at least one surprise.   Winny getting 6 points is an obvious attempt to get people off of the Eskimos.  Usually we figure out what the bookie wants us to do and do the opposite.

I chimed in a few times last season but going to try to make a better effort this season. Looking forward to a great season. From what I saw from Zac last week, it wasn't good. I'd rather see Bridge get the start. Drew Willy stinks. He sticks on his first read and that's it. If Montreal puts together a string of wins, it will be because of Sutton. But their defense is pretty bad once again. 

Thanks guys.....as I've said, I haven't watched any preseason.

Play numero uno of the season.....

1)  Green Riders +1

Expect the Riders to be tough this year,...they have all the pieces, though of course the qb makes or breaks a season for your team.  The linemaker maybe has given me a head fake and I've gone for it.....as my thread has gone into, I had the Riders between 5 and 6 point favorites.  I am hoping it is Bridge running the team, though I'm expecting Collaros.....if it is Zac, Jones should have a very short lease, as the guy has coached champions and he should not put up with less than good quarterbacking on a team that can contend for a championship.  Underdogs do well early season and those teams that have made the playoffs last year and now are away favorites have done poorly and Western division teams do well typically as underdog in non-divisional matchups.  Toronto will have a target on their back the whole season and though they were slightly above average stat-wise last year, winning as a big underdog in the finale, usually means that team will NOT burn it up the following season.

Non-divisional home teams that are dogs are favorites of less than -3 have been 5-1-1 straight  up and 6-1 ATS.   

H    and game number=1 and line>-3 and not DIV

Riders, Darlin'.

Good day Zoltar....gladly, meet ya there.

2)  Peggers +7 +100

Away favorites have been 2-9 ATS and 2-8-1 straight up in weeks 1s.  That includes 0-4 ATS in divisional matchups.  I made the line +3 in this game with deducting 6 points for the quarterback issue in Winnipeg....the linesmaker has deducted 10 points instead.....I just don't accept that a playoff team from the year before can be 7 points a dog against a team that aren't world beaters.

Winnipeg's quarterback is not going to be the worst quarterback in the league this year....I can think of a few that will have more issues than him.  He would more likely struggle on the road than at home.  I feel he can put up 20 points or more in this game, which when home dogs do that they cover 67% of the time.

3)  Hamilton +7'   

We'll find out pretty quickly if Hamilton and June Junes have a chance to do damage this year in the CFL.  Week 1 away dogs have been 20-8 ATS, which includes 11-3 ATS by those teams that didn't make the playoffs last year (Tiger Cats, Alouettes).  Teams that made the playoffs but didn't win the championship from last year  teams  have been 3-11 ATS  as home favorites week 1 (Stampeders).

And finally, leaning Als....out of all the teams, the Als fail my smell test.  Drew Willy has NOT been a good quarterback and you need one to play competitively on the road in CFL.  Granted it is a tie between Jennings and Willy in my least loved quarterback sweepstakes, but who wants to predict what will happen when multiple interceptions could possibly be thrown.   Bad quarterbacking can still win games at home, and less so on the road.   As I mentioned earlier, the Als could be the Cleveland Browns of the CFL and some including me once in awhile, kept waiting for them to turn it around.....bad idea.  The Als will be my "show me" team in the CFL this year....convince me to plunk down cash on you when your team is in a good situation.  They're in a good situation this week.....but I'll be surprised if I dial them up....I'll wait and see.....if a gambling god appears to me in a dream telling me to bet the Als I'll ask him for his ID for sure.

Three picks:

1)  Saskatchewan +1

2)  Hamilton +7'

3)  Winnipeg +7

As a further note:

Week 1 away dogs have been 9-19 UNDER.

Week 1 away favorites have been 7-4 OVER.

Week 1 home favorites that won <9 games last year have been 0-5 ATS and 1-4 ATS and 1-4 UNDER.

BOL Indigo , following 

GL on the new year Indigo!

Looking forward to a strong year 

Home Underdogs that will;

  a)  either be favorites next week, and/or

  b)  their present opponent will be underdogs next week

have been 8-0 ATS (+16.94) and 8-0 straight up (+13.00) in the first two weeks of the season.....Bombers, Sasquatches

Winnipeg will be favored next week against Montreal.

Toronto will be an underdog next week against Calgary.

Tiger Cats covered their last 6 games on the road last year.