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CFL week 11

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Posted: #26
**how is he in the league?
 
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Posted: #27
1)  BC UNDER 54   W

2)  Ottawa -3   W

3)  Calgary -6-

May have a couple more plays this week.
 
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Posted: #28
The two games I am interested in both have majority of the public on them, which makes them NO PLAYs.

These are strong opinions, but personally I am not betting them.

a)  Winnipeg OVER 51

b)   Toronto +9

Unless they go under the 50% level on covers consensus I am not playing them, though I am taking them in the King of Covers contest. 

Note that I am taking Calgary this week and they ARE a public consensus play,....that is the exception rather than the rule for me and I don't deviate from this very often.
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:

The two games I am interested in both have majority of the public on them, which makes them NO PLAYs.

These are strong opinions, but personally I am not betting them.

a)  Winnipeg OVER 51

b)   Toronto +9

Unless they go under the 50% level on covers consensus I am not playing them, though I am taking them in the King of Covers contest. 

Note that I am taking Calgary this week and they ARE a public consensus play,....that is the exception rather than the rule for me and I don't deviate from this very often.

You have very good discipline my friend. Ottawa was a consensus play as well, last time I checked covers had around 60% on Ottawa. They got the cover but it was ugly as they come. GL on the Stamps, I am yet to make a decision on that game..
 
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Posted: #30
I am not touching Ed/Cal

I do like Sask a little bit. 

Bombers have won 4 in a row as dogs now favored.  This will be the third time since 2008 that the Bombers have been favored against  Sask and in both previous games they lost the games badly.  I do understand that this is a different Sask squad though.

Things just don't stack up well for Peg in this match up as far as the situation or the line.  They don't play Sask well in their history.  They are laying road points 0-4-1 last 5 in this situation.

There is no question  that the Bombers are trending right and playing above their level,  I just think the line is too much here.  The only thing i don't like is Sask has to win or keep it tight the whole 60 minutes.  Scary but they can do it.

I like the Argo's line and I am fading Hamilton, but Toronto is in a bad spot with the lack of rest and travel.  Consensus likes the Argo's too.  Well see what happens before I decide.  Lots of football this week !!!  Enjoy guys!



Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
 
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Posted: #31
Let's see some Sasquatch tds tonight
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Posted: #32
Good luck 
Keep on digging !!!
 
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Posted: #33
Niiiiiiice one today!!!!!
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Posted: #34
Didn't watch the game, but from the box score, the Sasquatches must have made a nice come back.  I had indicators on the Riders, but just could not pull the trigger on them.  The ugly dog is victorious again in the CFL!

Possibly now, we could think about backing Saskatchewan in the future...a scary thought indeed.

I took the OVER, but didn't post so it will not go up on my record.
 
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Posted: #35
4)  Toronto +9

Pulled the trigger on the Argos, as they fit the parameters of my regression model that has done very well this year.  Basically I calculate a line based on a team's performance in their last 6 games, (like a rolling average in the stock market) and bet against the perceived advantage if it's  greater than 3.5 points.

I have Hamilton favored by 12.75 points in this matchup, so the play is to go against the Tiger Cats.
 
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Posted: #36
Which game goes over? Toronto?
 
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Posted: #37
Hmmm Indigo, this is not good. I lean the Ti-Cats again mate. Purely on the fact that the Argo's offense looks horrendous at times. Ray is passing no more than 8 yards per passing play (every now and then he will throw for 13-15 yards) up against the Ti-Cats who are off a loss against the best team in the league right now. I like looking at previous lines and the Argo's were +3 the other day at HOME vs the Lions. Now getting +9 on the road. To me, Toronto has no home field advantage as they have been poor at home for sometime now. I just think with Collaros back, they may come out firing all cylinders in this game but I could be completely wrong and your regression system may hit once again.

Just found this little query

p:D and p:line<=3 and D and line>=7 and season>=2014
 
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Posted: #38
yes I am with the Argo's too.  Hamilton's lines have adjusted since Zach is back. 

Just staying with what works for me
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Posted: #39
Hi OzMan........This query is what I am using in relation to the Argo game.

tpS(W)-tpS(L)>0 and p:L and pp:L and AD and DIV and week<14

A team that won more than they lost last season, off two losses their previous two games, playing as away divisional dog, in week<14.

The Argos have both the regression and this query backing them....but I'm certainly not over-confident in his play.  Good luck with whoever you decide and if you go with the Tiger Cats one of us will be right.   And that being said, my regression system has the Eskimos for tomorrow, but I am playing the Stamps as I feel the revenge factor of losing in the playoffs last year overrides the regression.  I don't go against my regression plays very often,....this is the exception rather than the rule and I will chastise myself if the Stamps don't cover.
 
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Posted: #40
1)  BC UNDER 54   W

2)  Ottawa -3   W

3)  Calgary -6-  W

4)  Argos +9    
 
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Posted: #41
truly a remarkable season. Hitting over 70% over 50 plays is just amazing. 
 
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Posted: #42
Argo's

people come here in the early season watch one game lose and cry and bitche and complain about the CFL. 

I love the CFL and your record states how much pure value is present.  This league is a gift. 
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Posted: #43
and thank you Indigo for showing me that query, it made me stay away from the Ti-Cats today and at 27-7, It looks like it has saved me money...
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