CFL week 11, NFL

19-13 NFL

28-15 CFL, 4 plays left tomorrow (Monday), both UNDERs and both underdogs

13-12 NCAA

Week 6 NFL

A week 6 away non-divisional  dog with more than 3 wins....15-8 ATS.......Chargers, Cardinals

A week 6 away non-divisional favorite with more than 3 wins....9-19 ATS....VERSUS Cowboys, Bills, Bucs, Rams

A week 6 away non-divisional dog that has lost their last two games on the road.....42-24 ATS...Vikings 

A week 6 away non-divisional dog that won  as a  home favorite their previous game and prior to that home favorite win, they lost their last  road game....7-1 ATS....Vikings

A before week 8 home non-divisional dog that won on the road last game versus a team that won at home....46-20 ATS.....Patriots

Plays:

1)  Patriots +3'

2)  Chargers +3'

3)  Cardinals +3 -120

4)  Eagles +6' +100

5)  Titans +3'

NCAA

1)  Minnesota +2'

2)  Rutgers +1

3)  Kent State +7

4)  Wyoming +3'

A before week 9 home non-divisional dog that won on the road last game versus a team that won at home....46-20 ATS.....Patriots AND Eagles.

If our away winner won by exactly 3 points.....21-3 ATS (+7.1), 18-7  straight up (+4.1)....Eagles, Patriots

Before week 9, a home dog off an away win that out-rush attempts their opponent has covered 74 times and not covered 15 times, 83%......I am betting that the Titans outrush attempt Buffalo.

CFL game at half-time.  Really impressed again with the Evans, the qb of Ottawa.  After two games he is as good as half of the quarterbacks in the CFL, and he's very smart too.  He's what Adams of Montreal should be, but isn't.  If somehow Ottawa loses their minds and decides this new signee, Duck Hodges is the answer, Montreal, Hamilton or Edmonton  should trade for him immediately. 

Ottawa will win half of their games the rest of the season.  Matt Nichols probably is done as a CFL quarterback.

I think the game will go over second half but not betting it.

Last game of the Thanksgiving weekend coming up....we have much to be thankful for.

Coming week's Indigo lines that the masses have been crying out for.....not to wait any longer.

Edmonton +11          Bombers 44

Even at this line I wouldn't take the Elks...this team is broken

Redblacks -3             Alouettes 42

Are the Alouettes better without Adams as their starting  quarterback?  Head coaches are often the last to know.                                                              

Lions        -2'            Stamps 48

Head coaching once again leading the Stamps to success,....who would've thought with how bad they were early season that they'd sweep the more talented Roughriders?                                                                                                                                                                                                         

CFL picks move to 31-16 ATS for the season with a 4-2 week.

Crappy NFL week, mediocre college week, but the CFL kept rolling.

Betregal has their CFL lines up, and as mentioned before they are totally not synced up with what is put out by other sportsbooks later in the week.  

However, if for some crazy reason they decide to use the Ottawa +6' line that betregal is using, I will be all over that.

Calculated lines for CFL, remember we calculate lines and then play the opposite of what we our line says....it works.

Average points per game scored in the CFL this season is 43 points.

Winnipeg 25.9-12.2........+13.7/game.......o/u -4.9/game

Edmonton 17.9-26.9........-9/game...........o/u +1.8/game     

calculated line     Edmonton +21.7 total 39.9

Calgary      20.8-20.6......+.3/game.........o/u -1.6/game

Lions         23.6-20.9........2.7/game........o/u +1.5/game

calculated line      Lions -3.5 total 42.9

Montreal   25.1-23.8........+1.3/game......o/u +5.9

Ottawa     17-28.7...........-11.7/game.....o/u +2.7

calculated line      Ottawa +12 total 51.6 

Going opposite if the Vegas line is anywhere close to what betregal has listed, we would be leaning on Elks, Redblacks and Stamps, this usually works best in taking a road team, especially in the CFL where road teams get the money in a higher percentage of games than any other league, which then would have our strongest lean be the Stamps.....we'll see what the linemaker puts out later, MUCH LATER in the week.  

Montreal is about to find out how life is without Vernon Adams as he is on the injured list.  If I am the Redblacks I am more worried about their back-up who looks like he can really throw the ball than Adams.

In the NFL, the Vikings have now become away favorites, and those away favorites in week 6 that have lost their last two road games have been 16-13 ATS, rather than 42-24 ATS as away dogs.  Home dogs whose future next week line is stronger than their this week's opponent's future next week line have been 108-52 ATS in the first half of the season, but the Panthers fit the less strong aspects of this angle.

what Shiltz, Matthew is the shits

He looked great in winning the game for Als over the Redblacks.....we'll find out if he is The Man or a mouse this weekend won't we?.....hoping he is what you say he is.  He won't avoid sacks like Vernon can, so the Redblacks won't be afraid to bring the house.

Heavy lean to the Redblacks who found a quarterback and everything else then has fallen into place for them.   Sometimes the public is behind the curve when there is a dramatic change of personnel, especially in the quarterback position.

Right now those two teams are even despite what their records say they are.

NCAA FB

Adding:

5)  Air Force +4

6)  Navy +10'

7)  California +13'

___________________________________

1)  Minnesota +2'

2)  Rutgers +1

3)  Kent State +7

4)  Wyoming +3'

NFL 

1)  Week 6 away divisional dogs with less than or equal to the same amount of wins as their present opponent, UNLESS they have one win....60-33 ATS.

    a)  If their opponent is off a win.....33-24 ATS......Chargers, Seahawks

    b)  If their opponent is off a loss.....27-9 ATS

_____________________________________________________________________________

2)  A week 6 away favorite with at least 3 more wins than their present opponent.....15-36 ATS

  a)  as an away favorite.....3-18 ATS.....versus Bengals, Rams

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3)  A week 6 away dog when both teams are off a win..........

25-13 ATS ........Chargers

Correction last post....

3)  A week 6 away non-divisional dog when both teams are off a win

25-13 ATS ........Chargers

1)  Week 6 away non-divisional dogs with less than or equal to the same amount of wins as their present opponent, UNLESS they have one win....60-33 ATS.

    a)  If their opponent is off a win.....33-24 ATS......Chargers, Seahawks

    b)  If their opponent is off a loss.....27-9 ATS

AD and week=6 and division!=o:division and t:wins<=o:wins and t:wins!=1

Chargers will be a huge public dog this weekend.

line<0 and week < 17 and n:line>3 and on:line<0

Favories =219 dogs = 422     13 pushes  average margin - 4.7   34.2% win %

Takes: Raiders vs Broncos, Patriots vs Cowboys

Let's look at this a bit more.  Divisional games have worked best for this, early season.

AD and week<9 and n:F and on:D and division=o:division and (n:line<-3 or on:line>3)

109-45 ATS....Raiders

Home non-divisional dogs early season?.....10-8 ATS....still Billy B is 0-3 at home this season and that won't continue.......the Cowboys off a win when the situation said they wouldn't cover last week when they won going into a 1-19 ATS situation.  I like fading teams that covered last week when they shouldn't have.

HD and week<9 and n:F and on:D and division!=o:division and (n:line<-3 or on:line>3) 

Away non-divisional dogs that have  over a 500 winning percentage have only been 309-353 ATS the last 30 years, 141-161 ATS (about 47% covering rate) before week 9, and 11-7 ATS in week 6 with 4 or more wins.  KOC contest has 71% of the public on them, which will probably get me off the game, or at least not in the contest.

NFL

This is a 20-9-1 ATS week 6 angle that fits both NE and the Lions this week, that becomes 13-4-1 if this game is a non-divisional match-up, with those teams winning straight up half of the time.  If we stipulate that either the home dog will be at least a 3 point favorite or their present opponent will be at least a three point dog this becomes 11-1 ATS (+9.2), 8-4 straight up (+4.1)

We take a week 6 home dog with less than 2 wins on the season that will either be a favorite their next game and/or their opponent will be a dog.

1)  Detroit's opponent, the Bengals are due to be 6 point dogs next week at Baltimore.

2)  The Patriots are due to be 6 point favorites at home versus the Jets.

HD and (n:line<0 or on:line>0) and week=6 and t:wins<2 and division!=o:division

Contest picks NFL and the betting percentages at the KOC contest:

1)  Eagles +6.5.....32%

2)  Titans +5.5.....34%

3)  Raiders +3.5...47%

4)  Cardinals +3...54%

5)  Patriots +3.5...27%

Sportsinteraction lines

Edmonton +13' 43'

Ottawa +5' 45'

BC pik 44'

Will wait until other sportsbooks get their courage up and put out their lines....leaning Redblacks and UNDER Ottawa as Ottawa no longer has Dom Davis throwing touchdowns to the other team, which should lower the scoring in their games.  Evidently Trevor Harris' days as an Elk may be coming to an end as he will be a healthy scratch.....hmmm, I think the problem is with the scheme more than him.

AND!!! what you and I have all been waiting for........we have CFL staff writers' picks who are a combined 104-120 straight up for the season!!!....LOL.

100% (6 out of 6) of them are on the Bombers

67% of them are on the Alouettes

67% of them are on the Stampeders

NCAA

Adding:

8). Tennessee +2'....home dogs that score over 24 points have something like an 80% cover rate.  Mississippi off allowing over 600 yards last game.

____________________________________________________________________________

1)  Minnesota +2'

2)  Rutgers +1

3)  Kent State +7

4)  Wyoming +3'

5)  Air Force +4

6)  Navy +10'

7)  California +13'

CFL lines are out.

Elks         +11'   42

Redblacks   +5'  46'

Lions           -1   44

A couple of weeks ago, I said, this is the time of year where home dogs start coming through as historically that is beyond week 7.  Well, this week is the acid test, as we have an absolutely horrible team that only Spottie would love, who has replaced their established quarterback with someone who hasn't played much at all.  I won't be taking the Elks, but if they cover against the champs, it is total buy on home dogs the rest of the season.

Plays:

1)  Redblacks +5'

2)  Redblacks UNDER 46'

3)  Elks OVER 42'

4)  Stamps +1..............going with the sportwriters and their solid 47% pick rate.....

Adding:

 9)  Hawaii +14.....Nevada is gonna get outrushed in this game, which usually very good for away dogs.  Nevada falls into a profitable situation that is a play against for the home favorite.

_________________________________________

1)  Minnesota +2'

2)  Rutgers +1

3)  Kent State +7

4)  Wyoming +3'

5)  Air Force +4

6)  Navy +10'

7)  California +13'

8)  Tennessee +2'