CFL WEEK 13 (32-15)

The Bombers spanked the Alouettes in what was a tale of two halfs, the Argos edged the Stamps thanks to another Javon Leake return for a TD, the Ti-Cats shocked North America and tamed the Lions in BCs den, and the Elks finally did it! They snapped the longest home losing streak in North America, finally ending it at 22 beating the RedBlacks at home.

Careful this week, it is Labour Day. The home dogs usually show up in these games. 3/4 home teams this week are home dogs.  I don't like these spreads, going to stick to a teaser for Labour Day.  Week 13, all picks moneyline:

BC
Both the Lions and Alouettes got embarrassed last week but it is much more respectable to get blown out by Winnipeg in Winnipeg then it is to lose and get crushed at home by the lowly Ti-Cats. Montreal had no offense last week. Fajardo threw for 137 yards and 1 INT and Stanbeck, Fajardo and Fletcher rushed for a combined 59 yards. Montreal sure must of been feeling good about the game last week at halftime when Winnipeg held a slight 20-17 lead. Winnipeg had 3 turnovers at halftime and Montreal had none, and 2 of the 3 turnovers were pick sixes thrown by Collaros for 14 of Montreal's 17 total points. Then came the 2nd half where the Alouettes couldn't even muster a single point not even in garbage time. Montreal hasn't impressed me at all against the upper echelon teams of the league, and when they can't get pressure on the QB their defense is nothing more than average at best. This is West/East and not exactly a Labour Day rivalry like the other 3 games this week.

What is going on with BC? Two back to back embarrassing losses against the TiCats and Riders. The culture in BC is starting to show cracks when you see guys like Alex Hollins throwing temper tantrums on the sideline while getting blown out by Hamilton. How is BC handling this adversity? BC must keep their composure. Vernon Adams had another monster game throwing for 326 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT and so did Hatcher reeling in 7 receptions for 107 yards and 1 TD in another losing cause. BC got ran all over on by Butler, but Butler said after the game this game was personal to him (BC couldn't pay him the money he wanted and let him walk in the offseason). I said it last week that BC got embarrassed the week before by the Riders and would come out with extra motivation to smash the TiCats at home but we all know how that turned out. I am riding with the Lions again as I still believe in them and the coaching staff more than I do Montreal and they will want to prove a point after 2 embarrassing losses in a row (or so I think).
26-19 Lions

WINNIPEG
Be careful with this game. When you talk about home field advantage for Labour Day, this was one of the most one sided previous to 2021. The Riders won all but ONE game between the Bombers and Riders on Labour day between 2005 and 2019. The Riders hold the edge on Labour Day with 37 wins and 21 losses. All records are thrown out the window for this game. These two teams have the best rivalry in the CFL and hate each other. Although since October 2019, the Bombers have not lost on Labour Day in Regina (right around when Winnipeg became the best team in the CFL for years to come). It is a Zoo in regina on Labour Day weekend with Bombers and Riders fans taking over the streets singing chant songs and partying. "I'd rather be a Rider then a f*cking Blue Bomber!" :D Anyways, Collaros has never lost to Saskatchewan since becoming a starter for the Bombers.

If anyone didn't know, check out this grueling piece of history for the Riders: The Riders actually had Collaros in 2018 and 2019. In 2018 he played 14 games for the Riders leading them into the playoffs with a 12-6 record but ended the regular season with a concussion. Next is where it hurts the most. Fast forward to 2019, the Riders season opener. The THIRD play from scrimmage Collaros escaped the pocket, ran for 7 yards and started sliding to the turf giving himself up. What followed was a dangerous and reckless hit by Ti-Cats LB Simoni Lawrence that left Collaros concussed again. He never played another down for the Riders. Saskatchewan traded Collaros to Toronto, who then traded him to Winnipeg. Collaros healed up a few weeks before the playoffs. The Riders finished 1st in the West and Bombers 3rd in 2019. The 2 teams met in Regina for the West Finals in 2019, and Collaros came into Regina and beat the favored Riders and went on to win the Grey Cup. Then he did the same thing in 2021 except beat the Riders in the West Finals in Winnipeg this time (no season in 2020 due to COVID). What maybe could have been if that dirty hit by Lawrence never happened? Although I did hear Collaros wasn't happy in Regina and wanted out after the 2019 season either way. Some revenge for the Riders: 2019: with zeroes on the clock Brett Lauther kicked the game winning field goal then ran straight into the stands to celebrate with fans.  Riders haven't Beat the Bombers on Labour Day since that. 2015: Riders went into Labour Day 0-9 and beat the Bombers 37-19. 2012: Riders beat Bombers 52-0! 2002: The Rocky Butler game. The Riders had to start 3rd stringer Rocky Butler in his 1st CFL game on Labour Day where he went on to beat the Bombers 33-19. Ah the Labour Day memories!

Back to this game. Has Collaros play been slipping a bit lately? In his last 5 starts he has 4 pick sixes and 7 INTs on 103 pass attempts. In his first 36 starts with the Bombers he had 0 pick sixes and 22 INTs on 948 pass attempts. Wow! The Bombers are still the Bombers. They have great coaching, one of the top offensive and defensive lines, the best WR core in the league, a top RB, the best QB and a top tier defense. An all around complete team. If Collaros plays bad, other players on the team pick it up. This Bombers team is resilient and I expect to see them in the Grey Cup this year once again. Oliviera had another monster game last week adding 119 yards and 1 TD on 18 carries.

The Riders are coming off their bye week where teams are now 10-3 coming off their bye after Toronto hung on to beat Calgary last week. This is the Riders best chance to beat Winnipeg with the extra week to rest, heal and prepare for the Bombers. This should be one close and a hell of a game but I still think the Bombers edge out my green Riders. If the Riders had Trevor Harris playing I'd be picking them in this one. But when it comes down to it, it's Dolegala VS Collaros and that mean blue machine. Hopefully the Riders didn't use all their mojo the last game against BC. I would not be surprised if the Riders somehow win this game and then get annihilated next week in Winnipeg for the Banjo Bowl.
28-21 Bombers

TORONTO
Lots to talk about in this one. Where to start...let's give a shout out to Javon Leake who won the game for the Argos last week by bringing his 4th return to the house. He has been amazing for Toronto. What is going on with the Argos defense? It seemed like they've been very leaky lately. They make plenty of big plays and they give up plenty of big plays. They make big hits and huge stops on running plays and also get gashed on the ground for large gains. They get a ton of interceptions and takeaways but also give up drive extending penalties and tons of big plays. What a wild ride this defense has been. The Argos defense got TORCHED last week by Jake Maier. I repeat Jake Maier. Maier threw for 387 yards and 4 TDs last week against the Argos with Begelton adding 9 receptions for 203 yards and 2 TDs. Maier/Begelton could not be stopped. There is a lot of concern for this Argos secondary and even more after DaShaun Amos was carted off the field last game. Too bad the Ti-Cats aren't capable of taking advantage of the Argos recent struggles in the secondary since they're rolling with a 3rd string QB playing the short passing game and love pounding the rock with Butler. Powell's throwing game are all short and the odd intermediate passes. Nothing more than a game manager; don't force the ball down the field when not needed and don't make stupid decisions that will cost the team.

What the hell happened to BC last week?! Their defense got gashed for 118 yards on 21 carries and 1 TD by Butler. No Hamilton receiver had more than 57 receiving yards. Powell managed the game very well completing 18/23 for 222 yards and 1 TD. BC just couldn't really get it going on offense either against one of the worst defenses in the league. BC came out of the gate with no fire and passion and were flat. This was a huge win for Hamilton with them holding that last and final playoff spot. Hamilton has played Toronto twice this year and lost to them by 18 and 16 points, being outscored 63-29. More of the same here, the Argos potent offense eats up the Ti-Cats defense and the Ti-Cats offense can't take advantage of Toronto's shortcomings in the secondary. The Ti-Cats are 36-14-1 all time on Labour Day against Toronto winning 7 of their last 8 in the series. I don't like trends but Labour Day is different. I can't see a situation where the Argos don't score 30+ points unless Kelly gets hurt. Potential letdown spot on Labour Day for Hamilton after their huge win last week against BC? We are also a month away from seeing the Bombers and Argos play each other!
34-22 Argos

CALGARY
The Stamps need this game BADLY. Desperation mode = ACTIVATED. They have been in most their games - 5 of their 8 losses have been single digit outcomes. They play the Elks back to back and then don't play another divisional game until week 19 when they play my Riders. I would of never thought this just 2 weeks ago but if the Elks win this game, they'll be tied with Calgary at 3-9 and hold the tiebreaker over them and move up to 4th place in the West! Calgary played a great game against Toronto last week but special teams was their downfall (and the defense but you can't blame them as much going up against the most potent offense in the league). Maier played his best game of the season going 25/42 for 387 yards and 4 TDs and Begelton went off as I mentioned in my Stamps Argos write-up. Calgary didn't have no run game to speak of last week and that's the strength of their offense. Calgary knows how important this game is to them as the Elks can all of a sudden jump them in the standings.

Edmonton, you did it! Your 1st home win in 4 years. I bet Chris Jones has to feel like a big idiot not starting Ford earlier saying he isn't practising hard enough, isn't showing improvement, putting him 3rd on the depth chart, etc. Now they've won 2/3 of the games he started and could easily have won all 3 if not for a complete meltdown against the Bombers 3 weeks ago. Ford completed 15/18 for 317 yards and 1 TD, adding 74 yards on the ground on 10 carries last week. Geno Lewis finally had a huge game, nabbing 3 receptions for 112 yards and a very impressive TD run after the catch after it looked like he was going to be tackled or pushed out of bounds. After the Elks back to back wins including the HUGE home win last week and even bigger party in Edmonton this is the perfect letdown spot for them and the perfect storm for Calgary to pick up a huge win. The Elks trip on Cloud 9 ends and they come crashing back down to earth with a loss on Labour Day.
31-23 Stampeders

Good luck!

TEASER: 2-1 last week, 12-3 overall

TEASER (7 pts):
BC +3.5
WPG -0.5
TOR -1

TOP OFFENSIVE GRADE: Calgary Stampeders - this is a tough call as I could give this to Toronto as they were the more well-balanced offense, but Calgary putting up over 30 points against Toronto with such ease holds more balance then the Argos putting up over 30 points against the Stamps defense. Maier had his best game of the year and the Stamps passing game looked super potent. And they didn't even work to their offensive strengths which was running the ball and still managed to score 31 points being one-dimensional. I am impressed by Calgary's offense against the top team in the league in a game they easily could have and should have won. It looked like the Maier/Begelton combo couldn't be stopped last week.

TOP DEFENSIVE GRADE: Winnipeg Blue Bombers - for the 2nd week in a row the Bombers get the top defensive grade. They held Montreal to a total of 3 points if you don't include Collaros' 2 pick sixes resulting in 14 of Montreal's 17 points and completely shutout Montreal in the 2nd half. Hamilton came in a close second, stifling BCs offense and holding them to 13 points (1 TD and 2 FGs).

BYE WEEK: Ottawa RedBlacks - Ottawa is in freefall mode having now lost 5 games in a row. They are now known as the team who broke the record/streak and gave the Elks their 1st home win in 4 years. They are good at stopping the run and have a solid defensive line, but their problem on defense lie within their secondary. They have been constantly getting burnt with WRs being completely left wide open with no DBs in sight. They also have issues tackling. Teams have also figured out Crum, and Ottawa will continue to struggle until they can establish a run game that's name isn't Crum. A much needed bye week for Ottawa, but they have to have a bitter taste in their mouth with the media/everyone talking about their loss to the Elks breaking the streak.

INTERESTING LABOUR DAY STAT: Home teams have won 30 of the last 37 Labour day games dating back to 2009. However in the last 2 years the home team has only won 2 of the 6 games. Home field advantage is a pretty huge deal for Labour Day.

POWER RANKINGS AFTER WEEK 12: (# in brackets shows previous weeks ranking)
1)Toronto (1)
2)Winnipeg (2)
3)BC (3)
4)Montreal (4)
5)Saskatchewan (5)
6)Calgary (6)
7)Hamilton (8)
8)Edmonton (9)
9)Ottawa (7)

3 changes in my power rankings this week. Toronto stays at 1 after another win, Winnipeg remains at 2 but only by a whisker. BC remains at 3 and are holding on by a thread, if they lose to Montreal this week they'll drop down to 4 next week. The Riders remain in 5 with a huge win over BC and Calgary stays put in 6 after losing a very winnable game. Hamilton moves up a spot leaping over Ottawa with their win over BC and Edmonton also leaps over Ottawa after beating them. Ottawa moves to last and is now looking like the worst team in the league. Once again, Ottawa was the biggest mover in my power rankings dropping from 7 to 9. After week 7 I had Ottawa 4th in my power rankings and since then they've dropped to last.

Great commentary! Should be a great football filled weekend.

Good luck 

Agreed.!  A good read.!  As always.!

That kinda sounds like a good rap lyric.

Good thread!