CFL Week 13 & NFL Week 3

Question

Calgary &#x2B;1 (-110): This is arguably the toughest betting week of the year in the CFL, and I am really hesitant to take anyone in the other games. However, Calgary presents immediate value when you look at Calgary&#x27;s road record (5-0), past history (Calgary beat Hamilton by 12 this year) and Hamilton&#x27;s lack of success this year against anyone decent (with the exception of Montreal). Okay, so we know Hamilton matches up well against Montreal because the Als are decimated in the secondary and are often unable to stop teams from passing even when it is evident to everyone that a pass is coming. Calgary is one of the best against the pass this year, and despite losing to BC, only gave up three plays over 13 yards in the air, and a measly 186 yards to Lulay. BC currently has a better passing attack than Hamilton, so this says a lot. The Stamps have been stopping the air attack all year. Hamilton won&#x27;t beat them on the ground, and as we&#x27;ve seen all year, Calgary rebounds well (especially on the road). Risking 2.2 to win 2.Jacksonville/Carolina OVER 42.5 (-110): I rarely play totals, but with all the overs hitting in the NFL, how can I not jump on this? I was skeptical of Newton when he picked apart those conscripted drunks Arizona calls a secondary, but when he worked over Green Bay, I was impressed. This kid is only going to get better, but what&#x27;s great right now is that he likes to air it out without much regard for throwing picks, etc. Meanwhile, with all the injuries on the Carolina defence (Beason being the big one), even the lowly Jags should be able to run the ball all day, generating opportunities for whoever is playing QB to throw some good play action passes. Risking 1.1 to win 1.More to come, but waiting on some line movement....Record: 32-18-1, &#x2B;23.45 unitsLast Week: 8-0-1, &#x2B;11.5 unitsEarly PredictionsMontreal 35, Edmonton 33British Columbia 25, Saskatchewan 20Toronto 22, Winnipeg 19Calgary 38, Hamilton 17

JooseBoxx · Answer

Calgary &#x2B;1 (-110): This is arguably the toughest betting week of the year in the CFL, and I am really hesitant to take anyone in the other games. However, Calgary presents immediate value when you look at Calgary&#x27;s road record (5-0), past history (Calgary beat Hamilton by 12 this year) and Hamilton&#x27;s lack of success this year against anyone decent (with the exception of Montreal). Okay, so we know Hamilton matches up well against Montreal because the Als are decimated in the secondary and are often unable to stop teams from passing even when it is evident to everyone that a pass is coming. Calgary is one of the best against the pass this year, and despite losing to BC, only gave up three plays over 13 yards in the air, and a measly 186 yards to Lulay. BC currently has a better passing attack than Hamilton, so this says a lot. The Stamps have been stopping the air attack all year. Hamilton won&#x27;t beat them on the ground, and as we&#x27;ve seen all year, Calgary rebounds well (especially on the road). Risking 2.2 to win 2.Jacksonville/Carolina OVER 42.5 (-110): I rarely play totals, but with all the overs hitting in the NFL, how can I not jump on this? I was skeptical of Newton when he picked apart those conscripted drunks Arizona calls a secondary, but when he worked over Green Bay, I was impressed. This kid is only going to get better, but what&#x27;s great right now is that he likes to air it out without much regard for throwing picks, etc. Meanwhile, with all the injuries on the Carolina defence (Beason being the big one), even the lowly Jags should be able to run the ball all day, generating opportunities for whoever is playing QB to throw some good play action passes. Risking 1.1 to win 1.More to come, but waiting on some line movement....Record: 32-18-1, &#x2B;23.45 unitsLast Week: 8-0-1, &#x2B;11.5 unitsEarly PredictionsMontreal 35, Edmonton 33British Columbia 25, Saskatchewan 20Toronto 22, Winnipeg 19Calgary 38, Hamilton 17

andarmac99 · Answer

Real nice season you have going there Joose.I agree with you on Calgary this week. This line is way off. Calgary should be at least -2.5 here.

44-dimes · Answer

I kind of feel different about this week JB. I love the card.My biggest to date. I'm surprised your not on the MON/EDM OVER !

Your projected score is 68 points. That's a 14 point cushion. Why not roll the dice.

JooseBoxx · Answer

Ugh, you are completely right, I should be taking this over. I am just so bad with totals. Might wait until game time and see how the weather looks.

coldsnap55 · Answer

"More to come, but waiting on some line movement."...&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;I AM GUESSING FOR TEASER PURPOSES....Nice hit last week.  &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;13 Pointer....&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;B.C. &#x2B; 14 1/2&#xD;&#xA;WINNIPEG &#x2B; 10&#xD;&#xA;CENT. FLA. &#x2B; 15 1/2&#xD;&#xA;S.D. CHARGERS  - 1 1/2

jabbadon · Answer

Stamps all day!  GOOD LUCK!

JooseBoxx · Answer

Edmonton QBs OVER 270.5 yards passing (-115): You can&#x27;t run against Montreal, plain and simple. That front four is very good at stopping the run, which is why Montreal ranks #1 in the CFL in rushing yards allowed, more than 9 yards less per game than 2nd ranked Calgary. I understand Jerome Messam had a good game last week, but much like the first meeting, I expect the Als to shut him down. This will force Ray into passing situations, and unlike the last meeting, Montreal is really really beat up in the secondary. Even when they know the pass is coming, there is little they can do. This time around, Ray has the benefit of having all his weapons back, including arguably the best in the CFL in Fred Stamps. Risking 1.15 to win 1.British Columbia &#x2B;1.5 (-110): I really wasn&#x27;t going to take this game, but with Fantuz listed as doubtful, it kinda pushes me to take BC. Despite winning with Sasky last week, I&#x27;ll be the first one to say that Sasky probably didn&#x27;t deserve to win outright, let alone cover the number. The excitement of having a new coach is starting to die down, and what&#x27;s left is a better defence and an offence that still can&#x27;t completely figure things out. The rushing game is no better with Cates, and forcing Durant to throw into a defence that has only allowed 42 points in its last four games is a scary thought. Conversely, while BC&#x27;s offence has been struggling, they are making moves in the right direction, with both the rushing game and pass protection improving over the past few games. Lulay is also starting to find more chemistry with his WRs, and it really is an impressive group, perhaps just as good as Sasky (sans Fantuz). Give me the Lions as my homer play of the week. Risking 1.1 to win 1.

JooseBoxx · Answer

adding two 9 point teasers, cause I&#x27;m an idiot....BC &#x2B;10.5, Mon/Edm OVER 45, Pittsburgh -1.5 (-110): Indy is the worst team in the NFL, proving that Peyton Manning is arguably the greatest QB in NFL history. Risking 2.2 to win 2.Mia &#x2B;11.5, Car/Jac OVER 33.5, Pittsburgh -1.5 (-110): Miami has always played better on the road, and are really undervalued after losing to two very good teams to start the year. Risking 2.2 to win 2.

JooseBoxx · Answer

Fred Reid OVER 65.5 yards rushing (-115): Reid has been picking it up lately, and with the Bombers likely ahead or in a one score game, he should get the rock quite a bit. Argos give up 122 yards/game on the ground, worst in the CFL. Risking 1.15 to win 1Detroit -3 (-106): One thing that sucks is that Minney will get fat Pat Williams back, while Detroit is likely without big Nick Fairley. I expect AP to get over 100 on the ground, but that Detroit d line is still great as long as Suh is in there, and should be able to hold the fort. Detroit&#x27;s biggest weakness is in the secondary, good thing Minnesota can&#x27;t throw the ball. The difference this year is that Detroit is hungry, and looking to beat teams down. I expect them to win this game by a TD, too many weapons on offence. Risking 1.06 to win 1.Baltimore -4 (-110): Perhaps it was a pipe dream to think this line would fall. This is the same Ravens team that beat the snot out of Pittsburgh in week 1, and they are probably just as angry after falling to the Titans last week. They are better in every facet of the game, and I expect them to dominate and reclaim their position atop the division. Risking 1.1 to win 1.Miami &#x2B;2 (-110): I think the Dolphins win this game outright. This play is aided by Peyton Hillis&#x27; mysterious illness this week, but it&#x27;s more about how difficult the Dolphins&#x27; schedule has been so far. They finally get a weak offensive opponent, and have a good shot at a road win, something they did often last year. One thing that has been overlooked this year is Chad Henne&#x27;s ability to move the offence between the 20s. Now if he can finally start to get some TDs. Risking 1.65 to win 1.5

JooseBoxx · Answer

Looks like my luck is turning the wrong way... Reid only needed 22 yards (in 2&#x2B; quarters) to hit the over, but leaves with a nasty looking knee injury.

CFL Week 13 & NFL Week 3

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