NFL 40-26 ATS season-to-date, 30-19-1 in the Westgate Supercontest.
In the CFL, all seedings are determined except for second and third seed in the East.
Montreal will need to finish ahead of Hamilton to get second seed and a home playoff game. We'll concentrate on the two relevant games this week....Montreal hosting the Redblacks and Hamilton hosting the Roughriders.
Indigo lines...
Montreal -12 Ottawa 47
Hamilton -7 Saskatchewan 44
I expect that Saskatchewan will rest their starters or their most valuable players, which should include Fajardo.
Teams that need to win are usually great fades, so if you are betting this week, don't use the logic that "the Alouettes really need this game", as a reason to bet them or the Tiger Cats.
We saw last week that the Arizona Cardinals romped when two of the best players in the league were out for them in Hopkins and Murray. I find that normally it is the week after the news that it is the best time to fade, and true to form, both the Tennessee Titans with Henry out and Murray still out this week were good play-againsts two weeks and two games after their injuries hit the news.
Wait one game before you fade a team with a key injury and your bet will be even better if they win their first game.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
CFL 43-27 ATS season-to-date
NFL 40-26 ATS season-to-date, 30-19-1 in the Westgate Supercontest.
In the CFL, all seedings are determined except for second and third seed in the East.
Montreal will need to finish ahead of Hamilton to get second seed and a home playoff game. We'll concentrate on the two relevant games this week....Montreal hosting the Redblacks and Hamilton hosting the Roughriders.
Indigo lines...
Montreal -12 Ottawa 47
Hamilton -7 Saskatchewan 44
I expect that Saskatchewan will rest their starters or their most valuable players, which should include Fajardo.
Teams that need to win are usually great fades, so if you are betting this week, don't use the logic that "the Alouettes really need this game", as a reason to bet them or the Tiger Cats.
We saw last week that the Arizona Cardinals romped when two of the best players in the league were out for them in Hopkins and Murray. I find that normally it is the week after the news that it is the best time to fade, and true to form, both the Tennessee Titans with Henry out and Murray still out this week were good play-againsts two weeks and two games after their injuries hit the news.
Wait one game before you fade a team with a key injury and your bet will be even better if they win their first game.
In final week, winning is less important for teams that secured playoff positions. To prepare for the future, backup players tend to have more playing time. But incentive and situation may still matter for some teams. Montreal coach said no players would be rested. If Montreal wins, Hamilton needs to beat Saskatchewan to host home playoff game. If Montreal loses, Hamilton can afford to lose because of tie breaker advantage?
After playing in Toronto on Tuesday, Edmonton must travel to BC with just two days to prepare for Friday game. Normally, football players need more time to recover than in other sports. BC may be more motivated to win as most teams want to end season on positive note especially in front of home fans.
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In final week, winning is less important for teams that secured playoff positions. To prepare for the future, backup players tend to have more playing time. But incentive and situation may still matter for some teams. Montreal coach said no players would be rested. If Montreal wins, Hamilton needs to beat Saskatchewan to host home playoff game. If Montreal loses, Hamilton can afford to lose because of tie breaker advantage?
After playing in Toronto on Tuesday, Edmonton must travel to BC with just two days to prepare for Friday game. Normally, football players need more time to recover than in other sports. BC may be more motivated to win as most teams want to end season on positive note especially in front of home fans.
Away non-divisional dogs in 2021 that had a total their previous game of greater than 45 have been 28-14 ATS this year.
I went back and checked the log of every single game this season to verify this.
This fits the Giants, Colts, WFT and Cowboys this coming week. The Colts have a pretty high consensus in the KOC contest backing them as an away dog on a Sunday day game which usually leads to bad things happening, so it's doubtful I'd back Carson Wentz on the road.
Plays:
1) Cowboys +2
Are the Chiefs fixed now? I don't think so, though fading them on the road in divisional games is not a good idea as Andy Reid has covered about 2/3s of the time in that situation throughout his career.
I favor one of the Cowboys or Packers this season to get to the promised land out of the NFC. Cowboys to me have the "it" factor and their defense is good enough this year to do damage in the playoffs.
2) Browns -10
The Browns were in a favorable situation for their game at New England, and when a team in that situation gets stomped I look to back them the following week. Lions did well to get the tie versus the Steelers as they ran it very well, which they need to because Goff is a pretty terrible quarterback who'll be playing a very good run defense on Sunday. Besides not being able to throw a football accurately, Goff has no pocket presence and also turns the ball over. I think the Browns win by at least 20 points on their home field.
3) Giants +11'
Giants have been amazing on the road and the honeymoon is over for the Bucs.
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NFL
Away non-divisional dogs in 2021 that had a total their previous game of greater than 45 have been 28-14 ATS this year.
I went back and checked the log of every single game this season to verify this.
This fits the Giants, Colts, WFT and Cowboys this coming week. The Colts have a pretty high consensus in the KOC contest backing them as an away dog on a Sunday day game which usually leads to bad things happening, so it's doubtful I'd back Carson Wentz on the road.
Plays:
1) Cowboys +2
Are the Chiefs fixed now? I don't think so, though fading them on the road in divisional games is not a good idea as Andy Reid has covered about 2/3s of the time in that situation throughout his career.
I favor one of the Cowboys or Packers this season to get to the promised land out of the NFC. Cowboys to me have the "it" factor and their defense is good enough this year to do damage in the playoffs.
2) Browns -10
The Browns were in a favorable situation for their game at New England, and when a team in that situation gets stomped I look to back them the following week. Lions did well to get the tie versus the Steelers as they ran it very well, which they need to because Goff is a pretty terrible quarterback who'll be playing a very good run defense on Sunday. Besides not being able to throw a football accurately, Goff has no pocket presence and also turns the ball over. I think the Browns win by at least 20 points on their home field.
3) Giants +11'
Giants have been amazing on the road and the honeymoon is over for the Bucs.
A home dog off an away dog win playing a team off a home favorite win in October/November Sunday games have been 45-26 ATS ATS (+3.48), 63.4%.
If our home dog's opponent allowed less than 14 points their last game this improves to 23-6 ATS, (+6.67), 79.3%
Vikings....I like the Vikings and their coaching staff in general, but don't know if I'll back a team quarterbacked by Kirk Cousins, in my opinion he is a slightly better version of Jared Goff....he consistently seems to be surprised that there will beguys rushing him in the course of a normal NFL game. In the fourth quarter of a close game teams that blitz him will win. He loses his focus when things go off the plan. He has a golden arm and very good placement of a football, a kind of Johnny Unitas type, however he never seems to lift his team.
I don't think a team can be a winner when he is the lead guy.
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A home dog off an away dog win playing a team off a home favorite win in October/November Sunday games have been 45-26 ATS ATS (+3.48), 63.4%.
If our home dog's opponent allowed less than 14 points their last game this improves to 23-6 ATS, (+6.67), 79.3%
Vikings....I like the Vikings and their coaching staff in general, but don't know if I'll back a team quarterbacked by Kirk Cousins, in my opinion he is a slightly better version of Jared Goff....he consistently seems to be surprised that there will beguys rushing him in the course of a normal NFL game. In the fourth quarter of a close game teams that blitz him will win. He loses his focus when things go off the plan. He has a golden arm and very good placement of a football, a kind of Johnny Unitas type, however he never seems to lift his team.
I don't think a team can be a winner when he is the lead guy.
Agree the Chiefs are not "fixed". They are still good but they took advantage of a Raiders team that is a mess. I would look to stay away from the Raiders or even fade them.
I had the Lions moneyline last week, looking to take advantage of a back p QB. Tie
Packers look like the 2005 Patriots. Cover every early season spread. Yet they are only -3 at home. The lines makers are leading the bettors to the slaughter. Regression is on the way. I am on the Vikings this week. Hope for the best.
If the Packers cover again with such a low line.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
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Agree the Chiefs are not "fixed". They are still good but they took advantage of a Raiders team that is a mess. I would look to stay away from the Raiders or even fade them.
I had the Lions moneyline last week, looking to take advantage of a back p QB. Tie
Packers look like the 2005 Patriots. Cover every early season spread. Yet they are only -3 at home. The lines makers are leading the bettors to the slaughter. Regression is on the way. I am on the Vikings this week. Hope for the best.
You'll get a heart attack betting on the Vikings....LOL.....hoping they'll win for you.
Play:
4) Saints +1'
Saints are 4-0 ATS as a dog this year, and it's clear to me that Sean Peyton can do wonders with almost any quarterback possessing at least one arm in the NFL. Their defensive scheme is excellent, so we like the chance to back them in a competitive situation.
The Jalen Hurts, Fields, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray types that do a lot with their legs have settled into a pattern of being very good at covering road games, and not doing too well at home, especially as favorites.
Last time Philadelphia was done crushing the Lions on the road, they came home and lost to the Chargers as short home dogs. If you haven't noticed by now, the last three seasons away dogs have been crushing it in the NFL at a CFL-like rate.
Give Philly fans a chance to boo and they'll let loose, and we think they'll be booing their team a'plenty this weekend.
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You'll get a heart attack betting on the Vikings....LOL.....hoping they'll win for you.
Play:
4) Saints +1'
Saints are 4-0 ATS as a dog this year, and it's clear to me that Sean Peyton can do wonders with almost any quarterback possessing at least one arm in the NFL. Their defensive scheme is excellent, so we like the chance to back them in a competitive situation.
The Jalen Hurts, Fields, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray types that do a lot with their legs have settled into a pattern of being very good at covering road games, and not doing too well at home, especially as favorites.
Last time Philadelphia was done crushing the Lions on the road, they came home and lost to the Chargers as short home dogs. If you haven't noticed by now, the last three seasons away dogs have been crushing it in the NFL at a CFL-like rate.
Give Philly fans a chance to boo and they'll let loose, and we think they'll be booing their team a'plenty this weekend.
I don't think Cam still has it, he can't throw. Coaches on WFT know him inside and out and Rivera was the one who first cut him loose....I expect Carolina to run a ton of zone read plays involving him and McCaffrey. Should be an interesting game.
That should be it for my NFL plays....I like the 49ers, but teams off a home Monday night dog win who play as an away favorite their next game have not performed well.
I will be most interested in watching the my man Russell Wilson try to will his team back into the playoff picture when things look pretty hopeless for the Seahawks. They were better off with Brian Schottenheimer as their offensive coordinator. They will have to string together a few wins in a really tough division.
I'd love for the Vikings to trade Cousins and a few draft picks for Wilson.....I think this is the end of the road this season for Cousins in Vikingland.
__________________________________
4) Saints +1'
3) Browns -10
2) Cowboys +2
1) Giants +11'
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NFL...
Play:
5) WFT +3, -100
I don't think Cam still has it, he can't throw. Coaches on WFT know him inside and out and Rivera was the one who first cut him loose....I expect Carolina to run a ton of zone read plays involving him and McCaffrey. Should be an interesting game.
That should be it for my NFL plays....I like the 49ers, but teams off a home Monday night dog win who play as an away favorite their next game have not performed well.
I will be most interested in watching the my man Russell Wilson try to will his team back into the playoff picture when things look pretty hopeless for the Seahawks. They were better off with Brian Schottenheimer as their offensive coordinator. They will have to string together a few wins in a really tough division.
I'd love for the Vikings to trade Cousins and a few draft picks for Wilson.....I think this is the end of the road this season for Cousins in Vikingland.
Take that back,....teams in San Francisco's situation HAVE performed well, but 76% of people making a pick on covers' KOC contest agree with me on San Francisco covering.
That high of a consensus is a HUGE red flag and making it a no-play.
CFL
Plays:
1) Edmonton +4
I feel like this game will go much like the Bombers going down last week.
2) Toronto/Edmonton UNDER 46
3) Ottawa +14
4) Ottawa/Montreal OVER 45
I'll be taking Saskatchewan plus the points if Montreal totally flubs their game versus the Redblacks and loses.
If Edmonton beats the Argos in the middle of the week (don't laugh it could happen) I will fade them against the Lions a couple of days later.
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Take that back,....teams in San Francisco's situation HAVE performed well, but 76% of people making a pick on covers' KOC contest agree with me on San Francisco covering.
That high of a consensus is a HUGE red flag and making it a no-play.
CFL
Plays:
1) Edmonton +4
I feel like this game will go much like the Bombers going down last week.
2) Toronto/Edmonton UNDER 46
3) Ottawa +14
4) Ottawa/Montreal OVER 45
I'll be taking Saskatchewan plus the points if Montreal totally flubs their game versus the Redblacks and loses.
If Edmonton beats the Argos in the middle of the week (don't laugh it could happen) I will fade them against the Lions a couple of days later.
The last week is open for anything and these bad teams all season are ready to finally step up. Edmonton and Ottawa make sense to me and at a minimum I can see a split.
Keep doing well S. Rainbow
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
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The last week is open for anything and these bad teams all season are ready to finally step up. Edmonton and Ottawa make sense to me and at a minimum I can see a split.
My book has an option to get out of a bet....almost always if the line moves against you you pay a bit for that ability to do so....maybe 10% of your bet for every half point.
WFT line moved from 3 to 3.5....and a move off or onto three is the biggest change of a line in a football game.
Somehow, the book didn't charge anything for the privilege to get out of my bet, so I did and re-bet the WFT at +3.5.
I don't know if they were being nice, or someone was asleep at the wheel.
Plays:
1) WFT +3.5
2) Cowboys +2, bettors betting KC up to 2.5....would be mundo suprised if it gets to 3.
3) Saints +1.5
4) Browns -10.....some books don't have this game up, which is probably because of the Baker Mayfield injury, when his backup Case Keenum is at least as good of a quarterback, so no problem with taking the Browns.
5) Giants +11.5.....line has since gone down to +11
The two live home dogs, the Vikings and the Seahawks are seeing their opponents getting action and both lines will probably be +3 for the home team come game time. If the 49ers can cover at home versus the Rams, either of these two teams could certainly cover.
Weeks 14 and 15 of the NFL have historically been the best weeks to take a home dog, and the beginning of the season historically favors away favorites in the NFL. Around this time is when home dogs start coming in. Interestingly, the Dolphins perform very well at home, not in the sweltering heat of September and October, but much better at the end of the season, as evidenced by them beating down the superior Ravens team this past week.
From a fan perspective the Vikings/Packers and the Seahawks/Cardinals will be the most interesting games of the week.
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My book has an option to get out of a bet....almost always if the line moves against you you pay a bit for that ability to do so....maybe 10% of your bet for every half point.
WFT line moved from 3 to 3.5....and a move off or onto three is the biggest change of a line in a football game.
Somehow, the book didn't charge anything for the privilege to get out of my bet, so I did and re-bet the WFT at +3.5.
I don't know if they were being nice, or someone was asleep at the wheel.
Plays:
1) WFT +3.5
2) Cowboys +2, bettors betting KC up to 2.5....would be mundo suprised if it gets to 3.
3) Saints +1.5
4) Browns -10.....some books don't have this game up, which is probably because of the Baker Mayfield injury, when his backup Case Keenum is at least as good of a quarterback, so no problem with taking the Browns.
5) Giants +11.5.....line has since gone down to +11
The two live home dogs, the Vikings and the Seahawks are seeing their opponents getting action and both lines will probably be +3 for the home team come game time. If the 49ers can cover at home versus the Rams, either of these two teams could certainly cover.
Weeks 14 and 15 of the NFL have historically been the best weeks to take a home dog, and the beginning of the season historically favors away favorites in the NFL. Around this time is when home dogs start coming in. Interestingly, the Dolphins perform very well at home, not in the sweltering heat of September and October, but much better at the end of the season, as evidenced by them beating down the superior Ravens team this past week.
From a fan perspective the Vikings/Packers and the Seahawks/Cardinals will be the most interesting games of the week.
So, who is the most reliable fade, the media or the bettors?....no question, fading the media will get you the money....bettors beat the media most of the time.
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Covers' consensus picks in the KOC contest.
1) Toronto 71%
2) Ottawa 61%.....really?...that is shocking.
3) BC 71%
4) Hamilton 63%
5) Calgary 64%
CFL staff writer's picks
83% Toronto
100% Montreal
100% BC
100% Hamilton
83% Winnipeg
So, who is the most reliable fade, the media or the bettors?....no question, fading the media will get you the money....bettors beat the media most of the time.
Likely that Murray is out and if he does play, his big advantage, his feet will be negated by his injury. Their stud receiver and go-to player is out for them, piling onto the fact that Watt is out for the season, and things could spiral downwards for this team. A backup quarterback is not gonna get it done for the Cards on the road versus a divisional rival who has had an amazing home field advantage.
Seahawks' 12th man will show up big-time as Russell Wilson and company come off a shutout. Seahawks and Steelers are the serial high character teams of the NFL and will be as long they have their two present head coaches. When they're down and desperate is when they beat superior teams.
The one caveat is that Wilson looked fat and out of shape in his return last week.....it didn't look like he had done any fitness training in his time off....we'll see if how he performs this week. If he loses this game, I predict his days as a Seahawk will end after the season.
Likely that Murray is out and if he does play, his big advantage, his feet will be negated by his injury. Their stud receiver and go-to player is out for them, piling onto the fact that Watt is out for the season, and things could spiral downwards for this team. A backup quarterback is not gonna get it done for the Cards on the road versus a divisional rival who has had an amazing home field advantage.
Seahawks' 12th man will show up big-time as Russell Wilson and company come off a shutout. Seahawks and Steelers are the serial high character teams of the NFL and will be as long they have their two present head coaches. When they're down and desperate is when they beat superior teams.
The one caveat is that Wilson looked fat and out of shape in his return last week.....it didn't look like he had done any fitness training in his time off....we'll see if how he performs this week. If he loses this game, I predict his days as a Seahawk will end after the season.
Tiger Cats no longer "must win" to get second place as another must win team bites the dust.....should be it for the CFL weekend unless Winnipeg becomes a bigger favorite which doesn't look likely as the line is dropping.
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1) Mighty Elks +4, winner
2) Elks UNDER 46, winner
3) Redblacks +14..........mighty Redblacks winner
4) Redblacks OVER 45.....loser
Tiger Cats no longer "must win" to get second place as another must win team bites the dust.....should be it for the CFL weekend unless Winnipeg becomes a bigger favorite which doesn't look likely as the line is dropping.
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