CFL Week 2

Bo Levi Mitchell 

LOL Boldy its okay this is early season after a no season.  Most offenses are bad right now.  

@ohmyyikes

 good luck on your next play 

Hey Spottie I have always enjoyed reading your posts - Bounce back tonight and tomorrow my man!

Calgary has looked bad on offense 2 games in a row, they have no player makers other than KJ. The offensive line is Sieve too, they need help 

Hey Powerz thanks so much. 

Tonight Friday night Lights and of course the dog.

Argos+6.5 and over 47

both of these are strong situational plays. 

I want people to follow me.  I don't mind if people get up set when they lose on my picks.  I feel for them when it happens.  I have enough history and knowledge to make a profits.  Its one day at a time 

@spottie2935

 Thinking of teasing those, Argos +12.5 and Over 42.5.  Thoughts?

Good luck Spottie

Well.. shit.. not sure how this happened but I took the teaser on Pinnacle, didn't seem like it went through, so I figured screw it I'll take the Argos and Over separate.  After I confirmed it, I found out it DID accept my teaser.  Not sure if I should let all three ride or not. 

@Ju_lie

 thank you Ju_lie you too 

@icemantbi

 I am not into teasers at all. Need 2 outcomes to win one even odds bet. The CFL has a lot of games that turn on momentum.  I like what the Argo's have done.  I also dislike Collaros.  On the other  hand WPG is a monster still and at home any teaser is jeopardy.  

I have 2 strong bets in which I have the historical advantage on paper.  I like both tonight because I think at a minimum I can split.   

If you didn't place your wager already I would have said teaser either or both tonight's game with an open spot and fill it with the Alouettes tomorrow.  Does your book allow open teasers?   

@spottie2935

 I don't think Pinny has open teasers.  Either way it's all good, I think I'll let it ride.  I do love the Argos and over as well here anyway

Argo's +2.5 2nd H

not good as i missed on both overs this week and misses on side and 2nd half of the Argo game last night

5-2 week 1 

0-4 week 2

--==-=-=-=-=-=-

Tonight is my best bet of this week, but it not a best bet for me. 

Starting with Montreal :

In 2019, in which I will refer to it as last season, wikipedia has listed both Conference all-star teams.  The Eastern Conference All-Star QB was Vernon Adams.  The top Eastern Conference All-Star RB was W.Stanback.  So here we have a high out put offensive team according to the last season.

Stanback was first in the league with 12 rushes for +20 yards and 2nd in the league (1 less) in +10 yard rushes.  Being able to make 2nd down easier and rushing for yardage makes the QB job and keeping the ball on offense much simpler.

In 2020 Montreal ownership changed hands. I dont know the reasoning behind the deal but these 2  business men that bought the team are probably investors that appreciate football.  To me this is a positive that someone would invest in the team. 

Edmonton totally blew last game and as a Home favorite is just, I will just say under performing.  They were -7 last week that struggled to win 3 games last season.  Still lost that game.  Bad news for Edmonton again.  

Edmonton as a home favorite in its last 20 games have 9 covers, and in its last 22 games have 6 home favorite cashes.  If their opponent is a non conference and Edmonton is a home chalk they are 2-10 ATS.  Yea just bad.  Lastly Edmonton is currently on a bad ATS run only covering 3 games of its last 15 games.

I like Trevor Harris but in Edmonton he has not been the same QB that he was in Ottawa.  If I remember right though in Ottawa they had and outstanding team with All-Star WR's.  I need to see more after his terrible last week.  He did fine (with a few mistakes) in between the 20's but in the green zone(red zone) NFL he left a lot on the table.

Lastly and to sum this up.  Last week Edmonton played Ottawa who only won 3 games the season prior and regardless of the fact they lost the line was only -7

This line is -5 to a Montreal team on paper with a previous history can score with a talented QB and RB that can make plays. They can keep pace and get the cover.  I do see Edmonton improving on offense in this game as they were so bad, but the 5 points or 4.5 is very valuable.

I know some of you are going to comment that Montreal is playing its first game, and my answer is edmontons first game was trash and this line at +5 is built on this assumption.  +5 is too many to give a team that can score.  There maybe some rust but If these all-stars play like they can, then the points are too valuable.

I didnt get into the SDQL I dont need to do anymore supporting of this play.  I may add the trending info later. 

Selections :

Montreal +5 best bet of my week ( but not a season best bet)

Parlay :  Montreal +185 with the over 46.5.  1 pays 4.44

good luck to all 

error correction:

Edmonton as a home Favorite in its last 30 games have 9 covers, and in its last 22 games have 6 home favorite cashes.  If their opponent is a non conference and Edmonton is a home chalk they are 2-10 ATS.  Yea just bad.  Lastly Edmonton is currently on a bad ATS run only covering 3 games of its last 15 games.

the late game I like Hamilton a bit but within that they do horribly in Saskatchewan.  3-11 ATS.  I have both of these team not as good as last season and Saskatchewan also has a few injuries on the line.  Fajardo had a great 2019 but I dont think he keeps that pace this season.

Hamilton is an option, but as of now I pass.   My best is as I have written in Montreal+5

Spottie

I got good news and I got bad news.

Good news for me is that I was leaning Montreal after doing some homework last night and having a capper I respect (you) pick Montreal, I'm locked in.

Bad news for you, Sirbruce picked Montreal +3.5 and one needs to only look at his record... Yikes.  .  I hope I didn't jinx you.

When did the Eskimos change their name to Elks?

It’s not good news or bad news sir Bruce. It’s what I like and what team I think has the best chance.  

I have already made a few mistakes on the early season and I’m just trying to make sure to play the best games.  Win or lose I can deal with it as long as I feel like this isn’t a mistake. 

I missed on Bc+7 this week and betting 2 times again Winnipeg this week was costly.  Overs not paying me either but this will reverse a bit.  Good weeks follow bad weeks.  

teams that were home favorites last week and lost that game,  now are home favorites again and these home favorites have a division game next week(possible look ahead) are 3-12 ATS.  Edmonton is in Bc next week on Thursday short week ahead.  

Earlier this year.

Stupid critical race garbage rears it's ugly head again.  In dialogues with actual Eskimos, no one was offended that a team was named Eskimos so what was the problem?  It wasn't offensive.  Just a horrible attempt by the league to look politically correct.  FAIL!!! As a true fan, I object to league getting involved with politics.  Stupid!!!    

No more...."Lets go eskimos"  now we have "lets go Elks" 

p:HFL and HF and n:AD and week<12

https://sportsdatabase.com/cfl/query?output=default&sdql=p%3AHFL+and+HF+and+n%3AAD+and+week%3C12+and+n%3ADIV&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

Cool resource.  No wonder you're so successful.  We are lucky to have your informed input. Cheers. 

https://sportsdatabase.com/cfl/query?output=default&sdql=p%3AHFL+and+HF+and+n%3AAD+and+week+%3C+12++and+line%3C-1&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++