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CFL week 3 estimations

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:

Make your decision Ju_lie....I am making mine according to what the line is at the time I'm betting.

It's your money, your decision....I've put out all the data that went into my decision making process....you can look at what I am sharing with the forum for you to play, fade or pass.

If you want me to be your money manager then perhaps that will require us to enter into a contractual situation.

Thanks. Was just asking for ur opinion. Only way I would get screwed is if Lions wins by 3 if I take Montreal +2.5. But it's ok I will probably take +2.5. Think Montreal wins outright. BOL
Bet the right way and never chase!
 
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Posted: #27
To those who are asking....I am putting out my plays and putting out the data that supports my decisions...that's it.  

I am not in the opinions business........ 

,......if your lines differ from mine, step up to the plate and make your own decisions.
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:

To those who are asking....I am putting out my plays and putting out the data that supports my decisions...that's it.  

I am not in the opinions business........ 

,......if your lines differ from mine, step up to the plate and make your own decisions.


So pretty much can't ask you anything. Like for example what do you think of stampeders this week? Simple questions like that for ur opinion we can't ask? if I can make up my own lines I wouldn't be asking you. There's nothing to step up to the plate for? Thanks for your help anyways. 

Bet the right way and never chase!
 
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Posted: #29
3)  Hamilton +114

I went into my reasoning earlier in this thread behind my liking Hamilton....we get a combination of two things that has me on the Tiger Cats...first teams off a bye that lost their previous game tend to cover, and second, favorites with a worse or equal record to their present opponent tend NOT to cover in the first part of the season.

The query below relates to a team with a worse record last year.....

1)  1st 5 games of the season
2)  home favorite
3)  Non-divisional game
4)  Home favorite had a worse record last year than their present opponent

tpS(W)<opS(W) and HF and week<6 and not DIV

4-18 ATS (-5.82)   8-13 straight up  (-2.36)

This is 0-4 if the away dog is off an away loss.

My three plays for the week are:

1)  Montreal +3

2)  Toronto +6

3)  Hamilton +114

Good fortune.
 
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Posted: #30
I love that this game is last.  I like Hamilton too 
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Posted: #31
Thanks for all the insight Indigo999. Been reading every week for a couple years now, thanks for all the discussion I hope to chime in too! 

I can't seem to find a match to pull the trigger on this week, good luck with your plays! 
 
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Posted: #32
Good luck Indigo999, if those three plays come in I will eat my shorts
 
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Posted: #33
Good luck 
Keep on digging !!!
 
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Posted: #34
I hear cooking your shorts with a little butter and garlic is the best Freaky.....

Good fortune to ya.
 
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Posted: #35
Looks like all the estimations & past stats didn't come through for the Al's tonight. I got 3.5 points as well and the losers couldn't even hold the Lions to 3 late in the 4th when it matters the most.
 
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Posted: #36
I was holding a corner in the 4th quarter. lol
 
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Posted: #37

1) Als +3 Loser


Is is just me, or are the Saskatchewan and Montreal quarterbacks identical? Throw 6 yard passes the whole game,....get picked off when they don't read the correct coverage, run around in the pocket and sometimes get a few yards by running.

I was impressed by the rest of the Als team besides the quarterbacking....their defense couldn't get off the field in the second half and their linebackers couldn't tackle on short throws over the middle, but everything else looked good.

However the CFL is a quarterback league, and it's looking like Montreal will be an 8-10 team.

Out of all the games this season, the Bomber/Stamps game holds the most interest for me....I like the Bombers this year,but want to see them play the dominant team of the past few years first to get a good opinion on their prospects....probably still a no-play for me.


 
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Posted: #38

Here is a stat for you.......

In the CFL, home underdogs that score less than or equal to  20 points have been:

21-69 ATS

19-72 O/U

Those that score >20 have been:

94-32 ATS

86-39 O/U



 
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Posted: #39
I am going to add the Bombers but I want more points or less juice.  

Bombers and under 
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Posted: #40

5)  Bombers/Stampeders UNDER 59


Here's what I'm using to make my play.


p:ADW and HD and t:wins=o:wins and week<20


A team off an away dog win, with equal wins to their opponent, playing as a home dog.


ATS  4-10-1 (-2.93) 

O/U   0-15 (-11) 


 
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Posted: #41
p:ADW and HD and t:wins=o:wins and week<20 and total >=50
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
 
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Posted: #42
Calgary UNDER 59     Win

Have

Toronto +5.5 

Hamilton +114

Tomorrow.....good fortune.
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:

3)  Hamilton +114

I went into my reasoning earlier in this thread behind my liking Hamilton....we get a combination of two things that has me on the Tiger Cats...first teams off a bye that lost their previous game tend to cover, and second, favorites with a worse or equal record to their present opponent tend NOT to cover in the first part of the season.

The query below relates to a team with a worse record last year.....

1)  1st 5 games of the season
2)  home favorite
3)  Non-divisional game
4)  Home favorite had a worse record last year than their present opponent

tpS(W)

4-18 ATS (-5.82)   8-13 straight up  (-2.36)

This is 0-4 if the away dog is off an away loss.

My three plays for the week are:

1)  Montreal +3

2)  Toronto +6

3)  Hamilton +114

Good fortune.

So does your metrics/stats account for a dumb team like the Argo's deciding to give the game away in the first quarter with 6 penalties in a row and thus handing the Red Blacks a 8-0 lead? And where did you get 6 points for the Argos as I took them +4 and I knew they were gonna lose the game but just hoped they kept it close b/c they are an underdog which is why you are supposed to take them.

So when the underdog Argo's lose and fail to cover tonight what do the metrics say what they should or should not do next game?



 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:

Calgary UNDER 59     Win

Have

Toronto +5.5 

Hamilton +114

Tomorrow.....good fortune.

But I guess if the Argos are an underdog again next week it means they are the pick lol! I guess if 1-2 teams are great against the spread then it means the Argo's should be the pick lol! 

Watch the Tiger Cats lose as well as I took them as a 1 point fav but I guess that was a bad pick b/c they were a fav but it would of been a good pick when they were a dog earlier this week according to your theory.
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:

Here is a stat for you.......

In the CFL, home underdogs that score less than or equal to  20 points have been:

21-69 ATS

19-72 O/U

Those that score >20 have been:

94-32 ATS

86-39 O/U




Here's a stat for you: teams that are brutal on offense e.g. Argos will normally get beat badly and not cover when taking points. Also teams that are brutal like the Argos will often give up more than 20 points and thus hence tonight's loss to the Redblacks. 

You should of paid attention to something like a win less team like the Red Blacks would be fuming to get the first win of the season against a lowly team like the Argos. But I know it goes against your theory b/c being an underdog gives them a better chance to win.
 
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Posted: #46
You sound like a whiner.....grow up or get out of betting.
 
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:

You sound like a whiner.....grow up or get out of betting.

Yes I was whining when the Argo's were losing but now I'm happy b/c they hung on to win. Now I'm on to the Cats and hopefully they can get lucky as well but I doubt it.
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