CFL week 5

Question

STD: 17-2....obviously things have gone my way so far,...and as good as it has been, it's been bad in the WNBA.

Thanks Spottie, you're very kind....and nice that AFL is treating you well, is that Arena or Australian football you are talking about?

I won a picking contest on a state high school basketball tournament when I was 9 years old.....10,000 entrants, the tournament was 8 team single elimination, so you had to get every game right and the then it came down to picking the score in the championship game.....I had the final at 70-55, which was the exact score when a guy hit a layup with a few seconds left to make it 72-55....if I recall correctly I won $50 and got my photo on the front page of the Minneapolis Star and Tribune. That was 49 years ago.

The are 7 guys ahead of me in the CFL contest and 6 of them have BC plus the points and the UNDER,....it is halftime of that game as I am writing this.

It brings to mind a story of a man on Wall Street who had gotten rich in the stock market. He went down to get his shoes shined and the 10 year old shoe shine boy said to him,...."Hey Mr. B, I have a hot stock tip for you, a sure winner." So Mr. B listened and after his shoes got shined he went up to his office and said to his secretary,

"Mabel, we're selling everything."

She said, "Oh? Why is that Mr. B?"

He said, When the shoe shine boy starts giving me stock tips, it's time to get out."

The time when the the story took place? 1929, the year the stock market crashed.

The point is, everyone now is aware that UNDERs and dogs are killing it. It could be time to zig, when everyone else is zagging.

The indicators I use for possible plays are on the Edmonton/Hamilton game and the Montreal/Toronto game for week 5. I'll update you when the line comes out....I may be playing these earlier in the week.

Indigo999 · Answer

STD: 17-2....obviously things have gone my way so far,...and as good as it has been, it's been bad in the WNBA.

Thanks Spottie, you're very kind....and nice that AFL is treating you well, is that Arena or Australian football you are talking about?

I won a picking contest on a state high school basketball tournament when I was 9 years old.....10,000 entrants, the tournament was 8 team single elimination, so you had to get every game right and the then it came down to picking the score in the championship game.....I had the final at 70-55, which was the exact score when a guy hit a layup with a few seconds left to make it 72-55....if I recall correctly I won $50 and got my photo on the front page of the Minneapolis Star and Tribune. That was 49 years ago.

The are 7 guys ahead of me in the CFL contest and 6 of them have BC plus the points and the UNDER,....it is halftime of that game as I am writing this.

It brings to mind a story of a man on Wall Street who had gotten rich in the stock market. He went down to get his shoes shined and the 10 year old shoe shine boy said to him,...."Hey Mr. B, I have a hot stock tip for you, a sure winner." So Mr. B listened and after his shoes got shined he went up to his office and said to his secretary,

"Mabel, we're selling everything."

She said, "Oh? Why is that Mr. B?"

He said, When the shoe shine boy starts giving me stock tips, it's time to get out."

The time when the the story took place? 1929, the year the stock market crashed.

The point is, everyone now is aware that UNDERs and dogs are killing it. It could be time to zig, when everyone else is zagging.

The indicators I use for possible plays are on the Edmonton/Hamilton game and the Montreal/Toronto game for week 5. I'll update you when the line comes out....I may be playing these earlier in the week.

Indigo999 · Answer

Estimated lines week 5. The lines I put out are based on relative strength, NOT on what the books would put out to make even action. Vegas does take sides on a game, but in my limited experience, it doesn't do that often in the CFL. Perhaps they make money on the CFL on a typical year as dogs and UNDERs are much less likely to be bet by the general public.

Home Away Totals

Blue bombers +6 Stampeders 49

Sasquatches +5 Redblacks 53

Eskimos -10- Hamilton 51

Toronto -7 Als 46

This is an interesting study, as I don't typically make my own line. The bookies may start fading the favorites now because the smarter public is onto the trend.

I don't make plays based on a difference between my line and the bookies' line, as some handicappers do, like Hoody from the CFL forum and BirdsOnBat in the baseball forum, who both are successful. To do so, you have to confident that your line is more accurate than the bookmaker line, which I am not. My view of "Value" is that going against value wins more than it loses in football as the line is where it is for a reason, often because the book is trying to entice you into playing a team because the line looks too good to pass up. It's like going to a department store and seeing a suit for sale at 65% off,....it's on sale for a reason, which is, no one wanted it and the store is trying to get someone to buy it by making it attractive. Works on people all the time. That being said making your own line if it's more accurate than the bookmaker can make you A LOT of money as it did for Alan Woods in horse racing....when died his estate was worth 900 million dollars.

https://www.themonthly.com.au/monthly-essays-tony-wilson-mr-huge-alan-woods-and-his-amazing-computer-nags-riches-story-149

spottie2935 · Answer

This is the first year I have put a real thread together. It takes a bit of composure in addition to the time and effort. I have to say the old adage has payed off. Hard work and effort does get rewarded. It's nice to have you on board.

I always play the KOC contests in the different football categories. The Arena game is by far the worst one! Always has been. I still play it because it's football and entertaining, but I don't put any real effort or money into it. I do well at is but it's just not popular and the lines can jump 3 points in one move. It's like options trading as you like to reference the stock market. Super volatile. I have been cold as heck the last 2 weeks and fell down the leaderboard so I think it's over anyways.

Your #'s were good !! The stories are even better!!!!

I didn't get into real sports betting until I was in my mid to later 20's. As I age and learn I am getting my s#it together. I am one detention all but I keep it simple and it works for me. Start doing to much and get out of the box and all hell can break loose.

Totally agree about the switch in dogs to favorites and home to road outcomes. Over unders never. Not in the CFL. I play under or nothing. Okay wait maybe one or 2 overs but the line better be pretty low.

You are really good at this and appreciate reading your thoughts. It's interesting more than just football talk. I have a hard time puting my thoughts on my thread. It has always been an issue for me. Too many head shots while I played goal for almost 15 years. Atleast I was smart, when the pucks started zooming when I got to the junior college level it was time to hang em up! Being 5 foot 8 and 150 pound goalie I certainly wasn't going anywhere with it.

You will find me being a hypocrite at times on and off teams in the same week. It's just the learning process for me. I am confident enough and good enough to make a week thread and share my thoughts but I have a ton to learn!

You speak of value and I find the CFL can be loaded with it at certain times. I feel the value is more transparent than the NFL.

Keep your thoughts and stories coming I really enjoy your brains!

Good luck in the KOC but better luck at the window!

freakyfreddies · Answer

Good job, stay hot

Indigo999 · Answer

Thanks guys,...appreciate the positive feedback.

Went to a motivational speaking seminar and at the seminar one line stuck with me and that was, you can have an audience that listens, but what really captures attention is stories, either yours or someone elses. People will stand at rapt attention when a story is told. And I love hearing other people's stories about the human condition,....

as Jimmy Buffett says, "Some of it's magic, and some of it's tragic, but I've had a good life all the way."

So Spottie, I love hearing about you getting pucks whizzing by your head and being a 5 foot 8, 150 pound goalie....you were doing something you loved and you didn't care that you weren't big enough or whatever. We go for it, right, if I haven't played it safe by now, I may not ever play it safe.

Like the movie Tin Cup, my favorite all-time movie, you keep blasting the ball at the green over the water hazard and if there's a woman by your side, great, and if there isn't, what the heck.

This week so far:

1) Hamilton +5

spottie2935 · Answer

Can you tell me of its Hamilton you like or Edmonton you don't like. It's a number thing or an on the field matchup thing. I just saw -4 at home and said

this looks to be a public number. I opened a position and will go from there. Sometimes it works sometimes not but I am not dealing with any kind of serious $$$ right now just taking it all in.

From the data I have on my data base and the organizational moves and on the field play my focus is on the 2 home dogs. It really is so beautiful to me that they play on different days. Or early and late. It helps me make $ adjustments if I need to. It's what I do.

spottie2935 · Answer

I hate being on my phone and the darn thing correcting my typing please bear with me I will try to push to proof read my posts.

Indigo999 · Answer

Spottie, from my database the situation favors Hamilton.....I don't like Masoli....but in my experience for me, following the database (or betting rules) trumps my intuition....I try to be as much like a robot as possible, especially with football. I also think that the books are trying to entice Edmonton action which raises a red flag on the Eskimos.

I have conflicting signs in the 'Peg/Calgary game, and I will probably only play the Bombers on the road getting 7 as of right now. My experience with home dogs is that they don't do that well until at least half of the season is over....then regression to the mean, fatigue and injuries kick in and bad teams can start covering home games....also, indications are that divisional home dogs in the CFL do much worse than non-divisional home dogs. I just ran a query and non-divisional home dogs are 57-33 ATS and divisional home dogs are 51-56 ATS through the history of my database....so that verifies what I had run before.

Will possibly play Sasquatches when my book's line/limits become more firm.

spottie2935 · Answer

Thanks for all the info.  following the database (or betting rules) trumps my intuition....I try &#xD;&#xA;to be as much like a robot as possible, especially with football. I couldn&#x27;t agree more.   I have a wandering eye and an open eye far too often.  I am glad you said this because its close to my style.  just a bit of confirmation for me.

Indigo999 · Answer

2)  Calgary -5Fits into a couple of queries I do.....week five teams that are .500 winning percentage are 9-1 on the road in CFL (this week Hamilton and Calgary)...that&#x27;s just one of the things I&#x27;ve looked at.  From a fundamental view which comes secondary to technical information for me, I don&#x27;t like Winnipeg, either their coaching or their quarterback, plus they historically have played dumb football.  I would only play on them on the road getting a boatload of points off a loss.  Mentioned earlier in the thread that divisional home dogs are nothing special in CFL, especially early in the year.Am I going to be right with this one? Being right is not as important as making the correct play.  If you make the correct play, over time the results will come in.  It&#x27;s like playing the percentage hands in poker, you read books and you should know what hands are acceptable openers in a 7 or 8 handed Texas Hold &#x27;Em game.....you&#x27;re gonna lose hands when you had the mathematical advantage, but over time if one practices money management the percentage plays pay off.  It&#x27;s when one has a "special feeling" that this one game is the exception and the bettor decides to not play a game that his indicators are saying he should, or he doubles a play because he feels strongly about it that causes the problems.  I might be right or  Winnipeg might win 54-0, but this is the right percentage play in my opinion.The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people are so full of doubts.  Bertrand Russell

Indigo999 · Answer

3)  Roughriders &#x2B;6Winless home dogs after week 1,  are 11-2 against the spread going back the last 9 years....going 10-3 straight up....haven&#x27;t played it moneyline so maybe no guts, no glory.......got some of it at 6&#x27;, but for record keeping purposes I&#x27;ll make it 6 flat.Ottawa has been the best, most consistent team in the CFL this year,...maybe time for a clunker from them with turnovers, bad luck etc.Maybe the Sasquatches will have learned how to stop someone by the time the game starts.Mentioned earlier non-divisional home dogs are 57-33 and if our play ON team is off a loss and our opponent off a win the record is a not-terrible 17-12.

spottie2935 · Answer

Ottawa started their team in 2014 terrible year, getting points in 2014 and 2015 has been their bread and butter especially on the road! This week laying a td or close to a td now

value spot.

my best play on the board

freakyfreddies · Answer

Hello Indigo999&#xD;&#xA; are you betting with your heart on Riders? Durant is there best player &#xD;&#xA;who is out for this week. Ottawa is a stacked team with Trevor Harris &#xD;&#xA;who will make a name for himself. I&#x27;m expecting Ottawa to win by 3 &#xD;&#xA;touchdowns. Past statics are important but it depends on todays &#xD;&#xA;injuries, just trying to understand why you picked them

Indigo999 · Answer

Ugly dogs win in the CFL,....A LOT.....Ottawa has looked great and Sask has got a ways to go. The Roughriders has a coach that has won a title, so they'll play better as time goes on.

I use past history to determine my plays. As I mentioned in the post right above yours, winless home dogs are 11-2 ATS. That is what predicates the play. If I absolutely hate a coach or an organization, then I get off what my database indicates is a play.

Most people make picks based on what they've seen the past week or two. On that basis Ottawa will go 18-0 and Sask will go 0-18.

It is why Vegas is able to build billion dollar buildings and builds beautiful sportsbooks to entice people to bet on what someone has looked like last week.

Everyone has their own methodology,....use what works for you and make your own decisions....maybe they'll be the right one this week, this month, this year, this decade. I'll be wrong frequently, but hopefully not more than 43% of the time.

Guys that are brilliant bettors are going to have differing opinions to what I play all the time....have a methodology in making your plays, If you are a seer and can see what will happen in advance by observing how a team has played the past four weeks to know the outcome of their next game, then that should be your method of picking winners. That method hasn't made money for me, but if it works for you, then go for it.

bold27 · Answer

Good luck on your picks Indigo I just wanted to throw a stat at youSask. are 5-30 SU without Durant as starterNot sure what the ats number is tho.I&#x27;ll try to dig it up if I can find it

freakyfreddies · Answer

Thanks for answering my question I appreciate your input

Indigo999 · Answer

Sure, it is about interaction,

Thanks for the head up about the Roughriders record without their starting qb.

The CFL forum is great, as there is an exchange and no one here is calling someone else an idiot because person A doesn't agree with person B's opinion or the way they go about picking winners. If I don't like brussel sprouts and you do, that doesn't make you right and me wrong...there's different ways of perception.

In psychology they've done studies where multiple people have witnessed the same car accident, who give very different accounts of what transpired. We all see the same things in a different manner.

If I pick 6 winners out of 10, I'm happy and someone else is picking 8 out of 10, then good on them, it's not a contest to see who is more correct more of the time.....I'll give them an internet slap on back and a "Well done". Just the other day Aussie Down Under gave me a trend that has done very well in the WNBA that I'll certainly use in the future.....that's what it's about.

I hope to keep learning from those on this forum every week,...some will want the interaction and others are using the forum as a kind of record keeping thing and that's it.

Indigo999 · Answer

My plays so far for the week are:1)  Calgary -52)  Sask &#x2B;63)  Hamilton &#x2B;54)  Montreal &#x2B;6Terrible game by Montreal last week, but CFL is a Dr. Jeckyl/Mr. Hyde league.  Toronto, as Spottie as pointed out has been terrible as a home team over the past few years.  So to verify, I checked on Toronto using my database.....sure enough, I found them to be 31-49 at home since 2007, 14-28 as a home favorites, and 9-18 as a home divisional favorite.  Those expecting that the new stadium might make a difference would have been disappointed as they&#x27;re 0-2 ATS so far this year.Many times when a team is playing poorly, they snap out of it on the road against a divisional rival....the team gets an "us against the world" mentality and puts forth a mammoth effort.  While I don&#x27;t know if Montreal will play well this week, I expect them to play VERY hard.I played some UNDERS in the contest, but I didn&#x27;t like them enough to put cold hard cash on them.You can check the contest page to see those picks if you&#x27;re interested...they were all chosen by using a database and entering certain parameters, I don&#x27;t believe in making picks based on what I saw watching the previous weeks&#x27; games, and in actuality, I believe my prognostication skills would have been better over the years if I had NOT watched any games.For those who are new to betting, the one ironclad idea to keep in mind is:  Things typically don&#x27;t stay the same and when the general public starts noticing a streak and writing about it, it&#x27;s time to start considering going the opposite way.  Teams are not as bad as they looked last week nor are they as good as they looked.An example of this is in MLB.  If one did nothing but went AGAINST teams with a &gt;=600 winning percentage who were favorites in conference play you would have done very well.  Add to that if they were off a win and your ROI would have been greater than 6.7%, and the return jumps again to 7.7% if the opponent they are playing had a worse record.The thing is....it&#x27;s hard to go against a team that is doing very well....the Cubs this year are an example.  A team that had won 60% of their games  going into the present game only won 55% of the time in that scenario with an average line of -158 (or an opponent&#x27;s line of &#x2B;143). Some of you who can do the math can figure out how profitable that has been.   In essence to be profitable in this situation, one has to be content with winning only 45% of the time.....how many of us are comfortable with that?   One of my weaknesses as a bettor is failing to play the moneyline when I&#x27;m taking an underdog in football/basketball....in the games I&#x27;m picking I&#x27;ve always calculated that the return on betting the moneyline is much greater than picking against the spread.  That, and line shopping are definitely things I should be doing more effectively.  If you can find a system in football that picks underdogs that win straight up 43% of the time, you would be a winner against the spread 60% of time.  Easier psychologically to win smaller amounts 60% of the time, than exponentially more only 43% of the time, but far less profitable.When we check that situation this year of going against the Cubs when their winning percentage was &gt;=.600,  off a win,  in conference play against a team with a worse winning percentage, they have been 29-18 but you would have a return on investment of 6.4% by going against them in this situation.  This scenario has won 10 straight years, until  a slight loss last year and it has been a small winner this year so far....perhaps the books have caught on to this.Good luck in your plays, it definitely helps to be lucky AND good.

spottie2935 · Answer

Good stuff I read every word!want to look at something further in your search on the Cubs as you gave that is your example.  What if the Cubs have a winning streak.  Assuming the 43% wouldn&#x27;t that make the % higher going forward.Sports betting isnt a fixed circumstance say like flipping a coin, but on the other hand books don&#x27;t give away free money either so a bet against the cubs after a longer winning is broken would make the yield % and ROI even better?

spottie2935 · Answer

After the 25-9 start every time the Cubs have won 3 in a row, and then lose, they have been a great fade! That's my point. They have already had a hot streak going 25-9 to open the year, and after a few winners in a row. then a loss to break the winning streak then BANG we have a value fade situation.

Fade the Cubs after a loss after the 25-9 start and you are up over 10 units

hoody · Answer

999 , just for the record I use my line as a guide , true it is a big part of my play , but I do use my data also looking at things like Ham scoring (100 pts in 215 plays scoring 0.46 pts per play)Edm scoring 96 in186 plays , 0.51 pts per play .

Doing things like that makes Cal my best in defense then BC-Ham-Ott-Win-Tor-Mon-Edm-Sas.

That's just one thing when it comes to trends I trash most of them.

But one thing for sure the CFL forum is #1 I look at almost everyone but not all. As you can see I look at yours and spottie's . Maybe people will add what things they like to look at.

Some things when you do like above is if you do offense Tor comes out at #1 I think, only because of wk 2 where they scored 30pts in 36 plays so I make adjustments.

Gets harder with the nfl just because of time if I did this for a living it would be different.

keep up the good work.

I do like Cal so far this wk.

Indigo999 · Answer

The Hood Man is in the building!....thanks Buddy, we&#x27;ll see if our calculating and figuring pays off this week.

spottie2935 · Answer

Let&#x27;s get # 2 Let&#x27;s not do # 2

spottie2935 · Answer

You are Oh yes and lucky as hell too

AussieDownUnder · Answer

Amazing Indigo ... Well done buddy. Great call on the Riders.

CFL week 5

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