Posted:
#1
Past week 3-3, season to date 23-7.
Interesting season to say the least....away dogs and unders continue to cover at an amazing rate, even more so that in past years. With the onus on the quarterbacks in this league, it is intriguing to see all of the back-ups do so well, in all the cases I can think of with exception of Sask., the second string guys have been better than the game 1 starters.
I like British Colombia to win the west and Hamilton to win the east. I think Winnipeg can now win some games with the right guy playing quarterback, their defense is not too bad. Sask., Montreal and Edmonton will continue to be money burners, especially off a win, and/or as favorites....not likely to happen too much with the Sasquatches, but the other two there will be opportunities to fade them.
I love how BC is coached, as I take it as sign of a very good coach when their team scores in unconventional ways, i.e., special teams and defense.
Hamilton is well coached too, and I like Toronto's defense, they are just terrible though, as Spottie has said a few times as home favorites. Isn't everyone this year so far?
Estimated lines week 7. These are what I'd put the lines based on their relative strength this year, NOT on what I'd put out there to make it even action. If I favor team A by 6 and the line comes out as team A by 9....I am considering that the linemaker is trying to get me off of betting team A, NOT that I am smarter than the bookmaker and there is "value" in the line.
My views of this are maybe unorthodox, but I believe that shopping for value is a long-term moneyburner. Find out who the bookmaker wants you to bet and do the opposite and you will win more than you lose.
As I've spoken about before, if I know my line is better than the bookmaker's, then I can bet into a disparity of the line. My lines have not proven themselves to be superior, so I am not supposing I am a better linemaker (yet) than the guys who do it for a living in Vegas. And let's be realistic.....they put a lot of time and effort into being right, and I don't, so my lines may NEVER be better than pro linemaker.
Hoody probably spends quite a bit more time working his power ratings out than me, and uses some math to come up with his results, which I don't....his probably are probably better than mine.
To make my plays I use technical, historical information as I believe that history repeats itself. An example of technical information this past week was that Edmonton lost the previous week despite winning at half time....teams playing a division rival @home the next week have had terrible success against the pointspread.
That was my determination in playing the Winnipeg Bombers, it had not much to do with the fact that Edmonton has had a post-championship letdown, that their defense is not too good this year, or that their coaching staff is totally new...... those are more fundamental reasons, which I put a much less priority on than most 'cappers.
Estimated lines for week 7
Home team line Opponent total
Winnipeg +4 Hamilton 50
Calgary -12 Sask 54
Montreal +2 British Col 51
Ottawa -6 Edmonton 54
And, just for a topic of general interest, I am a big believer in regression to the mean....that things even out over time. I just did a study in baseball where I checked the record of the four highest percentage teams as of June 1st this year in major league baseball, and saw what would have happened if I bet against each of these teams every time they were a favorite. I also looked at the four worst teams as of June 1st of this year, and saw how I would have done if I had played on them every game that they were a dog. In these two studies I deleted all out of conference games.
Here's what I came up with.....the top teams, going against them I would have been up 21 units.
The bottom four teams betting on them I would have been up 11 units.
Not a bad haul to have been up 32 units in two months. It is my belief that we should always look for regression to the mean, as a basis for our handicapping.
0
tonight 
. Now I will end the conversation. If you would like to chat more feel free in my thread, or better yet make a thread and make some picks on your own like a big boy. 
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