Bottom three teams are obviously the Lions, Redblacks and the Argos. Argos have coaching issues (punt when you're down 10 with less than 3 minutes left?!!) , Lions have problems in their whole offense and their expected defensive improvement has not happened. Redblacks have quarterback problems and post runner-up syndrome.
Major test for the Bombers this week as they go to the second best team in the league's house, Hamilton. Teams that are >500 and a home non-divisional dog have been 13-10 ATS....Tiger Cats
I'd be very surprised if the Toronto coach is retained after this season. Their defense is terrible and the coach has a defensive background. Evidently he wasn't well respected in his past capacities around the league,,....it looks like a bad hire. They hung close to Calgary more by the ineptitude of the Stamps than anything they did....their offense had 6 or 7 turnovers, their special teams have also been bad.......they have looked like the Alouettes have the previous three years, they look like a 2 win team.
Home non-divisional dogs during the regular season have been 76-55 ATS... Redblacks
If that home dog is on at least a three game losing streak this moves to 21-7 ATS.....Redblacks
Home divisional dogs have been 67-75 ATS.....Lions?
If our home divisional dog is playing who they lost to on the road as a dog last week, they've been 9-8 ATS, but only 5-9 ATS if the Lions come a home favorite.
Home divisional favorites with a winning percentage below 500 have been 39-59 ATS....Lions?
Home divisional dogs with a winning percentage below 500 have have 42-52 ATS.....Lions?
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Redblacks +3' Stamps 53
Eskimos -12 Argos 54
Tiger Cats +2' Bombers 52
Lions +3' Riders 54
Bottom three teams are obviously the Lions, Redblacks and the Argos. Argos have coaching issues (punt when you're down 10 with less than 3 minutes left?!!) , Lions have problems in their whole offense and their expected defensive improvement has not happened. Redblacks have quarterback problems and post runner-up syndrome.
Major test for the Bombers this week as they go to the second best team in the league's house, Hamilton. Teams that are >500 and a home non-divisional dog have been 13-10 ATS....Tiger Cats
I'd be very surprised if the Toronto coach is retained after this season. Their defense is terrible and the coach has a defensive background. Evidently he wasn't well respected in his past capacities around the league,,....it looks like a bad hire. They hung close to Calgary more by the ineptitude of the Stamps than anything they did....their offense had 6 or 7 turnovers, their special teams have also been bad.......they have looked like the Alouettes have the previous three years, they look like a 2 win team.
Home non-divisional dogs during the regular season have been 76-55 ATS... Redblacks
If that home dog is on at least a three game losing streak this moves to 21-7 ATS.....Redblacks
Home divisional dogs have been 67-75 ATS.....Lions?
If our home divisional dog is playing who they lost to on the road as a dog last week, they've been 9-8 ATS, but only 5-9 ATS if the Lions come a home favorite.
Home divisional favorites with a winning percentage below 500 have been 39-59 ATS....Lions?
Home divisional dogs with a winning percentage below 500 have have 42-52 ATS.....Lions?
I don't know how to feel about my performance,...I've been 4-7 the last two weeks which is abysmal, but I am still in profit. I wanted to strangle the two coaches that can't a logical decision in the last two minutes....one that kicks a field goal down 10 with a first down on the opponent's 25 yard line with two minutes left....incredibly stupid.
The second guy whose team hasn't won a game yet, punted down 10 on third down with less than 3 minutes left. That was even stupider (is that a word?). As Forrest Gump said quite a few times...."stupid is as stupid does".
Toronto I could see covering some games going forward, because Bethel-Thompson just keeps on chuckin' even if he has thrown a few picks....that's the kind of guy want with a backdoor cover on the line. Reilly, on the other hand, has about 1 second on all of his throws to make up his mind...basically he gets crushed every time he drops back, whether he has gotten rid of the ball or not. Obviously we'd only want either of those teams if they are dogs.
The Redblacks?...their coach is excellent and their offensive scheme is excellent. Davis I can live with....Jennings is auto-fade, because he will donate to the opposing team's points scored....you can almost factor it in.
I could see the Redblacks playing a good game this week.
So, for fun(?) I went back and looked at how teams do after game number 4 that have an average ats margin of <-7, which means they have an average losing margin to the spread of greater than 7 points/game. We'll query that the other team has a margin not over -7.
tA(ats margin)<=-7 and playoffs=0 and oA(ats margin)>-7 and game number>4
Here are the results....
Overall 50-47 ATS
Non-division home dogs 12-6 ATS Redblacks
Divisional home dogs 11-9 ATS
Away dogs division 6-11 ATS
Away dogs non-division 13-12 ATS Argos
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Exactamente Gray
Season to date 19-16 ATS.
I don't know how to feel about my performance,...I've been 4-7 the last two weeks which is abysmal, but I am still in profit. I wanted to strangle the two coaches that can't a logical decision in the last two minutes....one that kicks a field goal down 10 with a first down on the opponent's 25 yard line with two minutes left....incredibly stupid.
The second guy whose team hasn't won a game yet, punted down 10 on third down with less than 3 minutes left. That was even stupider (is that a word?). As Forrest Gump said quite a few times...."stupid is as stupid does".
Toronto I could see covering some games going forward, because Bethel-Thompson just keeps on chuckin' even if he has thrown a few picks....that's the kind of guy want with a backdoor cover on the line. Reilly, on the other hand, has about 1 second on all of his throws to make up his mind...basically he gets crushed every time he drops back, whether he has gotten rid of the ball or not. Obviously we'd only want either of those teams if they are dogs.
The Redblacks?...their coach is excellent and their offensive scheme is excellent. Davis I can live with....Jennings is auto-fade, because he will donate to the opposing team's points scored....you can almost factor it in.
I could see the Redblacks playing a good game this week.
So, for fun(?) I went back and looked at how teams do after game number 4 that have an average ats margin of <-7, which means they have an average losing margin to the spread of greater than 7 points/game. We'll query that the other team has a margin not over -7.
tA(ats margin)<=-7 and playoffs=0 and oA(ats margin)>-7 and game number>4
Indigo, why is there so much variance between your week 7 lines and your week 7 predictions? Are those lines what you think the books will set the lines at, or should set the lines at, or what you think should be the true line?
Surely the books won't set the Lions-Sask game total at 43 when it was 50 last week and flew way over 50. Are you suggesting by the 23-20 prediction that you'll lean to the under if they set it at 50 again? BTW I wouldn't be surprised if they have it in the mid 50's after that result. Such as your week 7 total of 54.
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Indigo, why is there so much variance between your week 7 lines and your week 7 predictions? Are those lines what you think the books will set the lines at, or should set the lines at, or what you think should be the true line?
Surely the books won't set the Lions-Sask game total at 43 when it was 50 last week and flew way over 50. Are you suggesting by the 23-20 prediction that you'll lean to the under if they set it at 50 again? BTW I wouldn't be surprised if they have it in the mid 50's after that result. Such as your week 7 total of 54.
Also makes a difference if you wait or if you do things when the line first come's out , I notice at time's my line will be high or low but by game time they may be the same or close , I've noticed that with some of yours to , I think to myself where did he get that line then come game time it's close , so I use mine as a guide , same thing though if my line is say 3pt's diff I want to take a better look at that game , but I do like to see how close my line is to the books when they 1st come out which then brings up the question of make the bet now because I think my line is right or wait to near game time. Now I like Edm this wk and I think they are at least 10 pt's better than Tor and there showing -9 right now , also like Win getting pt's. You got week's to go to bring up your % , Everyone has a way to make there line. Good Luck this week Indigo
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Also makes a difference if you wait or if you do things when the line first come's out , I notice at time's my line will be high or low but by game time they may be the same or close , I've noticed that with some of yours to , I think to myself where did he get that line then come game time it's close , so I use mine as a guide , same thing though if my line is say 3pt's diff I want to take a better look at that game , but I do like to see how close my line is to the books when they 1st come out which then brings up the question of make the bet now because I think my line is right or wait to near game time. Now I like Edm this wk and I think they are at least 10 pt's better than Tor and there showing -9 right now , also like Win getting pt's. You got week's to go to bring up your % , Everyone has a way to make there line. Good Luck this week Indigo
We have two teams playing a non-divisional game that are on at least 3 game losing streaks,...both are dogs. Teams in that situation have been 39-20 ATS.....Argos, Redblacks.
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We have two teams playing a non-divisional game that are on at least 3 game losing streaks,...both are dogs. Teams in that situation have been 39-20 ATS.....Argos, Redblacks.
Can't play under any circumstances play the Jennings-led Redblacks. He's gonna have to show me he can play quarterback first, and I've been waiting quite a long time.
Redblacks in a very good situation this week, and Arbuckle has fallen off considerably the past couple of games. Playing JJ is pretty puzzling, and my faith in humanity would be restored if he got yanked after a bad first half. What is going on with Davis, is he out for personal reasons or is he hurt?
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Thanks for the information shooter.
Can't play under any circumstances play the Jennings-led Redblacks. He's gonna have to show me he can play quarterback first, and I've been waiting quite a long time.
Redblacks in a very good situation this week, and Arbuckle has fallen off considerably the past couple of games. Playing JJ is pretty puzzling, and my faith in humanity would be restored if he got yanked after a bad first half. What is going on with Davis, is he out for personal reasons or is he hurt?
Teams that are away dogs off 2 straight away losses have been 7-2.....Argos
"Losses" SU or ATS? "7-2" SU or ATS? I wonder how many of those 9 were almost +400 ML dogs in their 3rd straight away game after "2 straight away losses". Who has the balls to bet the Argos +400 ML this week?
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Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:
Teams that are away dogs off 2 straight away losses have been 7-2.....Argos
"Losses" SU or ATS? "7-2" SU or ATS? I wonder how many of those 9 were almost +400 ML dogs in their 3rd straight away game after "2 straight away losses". Who has the balls to bet the Argos +400 ML this week?
Teams off two straight away losses have been 7-2 ATS as away dogs, their 3rd straight away game. Come on now, don't get crazy on me....those trends are for betting purposes and it is always against the line unless I state otherwise. In this case I omitted "ATS" for which I apologize.
CFL is a contrarian league, and, as I've mentioned you can look pretty foolish when taking a team like the Argos and it loses. That's why posting plays and keeping a public record isn't easy, but hopefully you/I look like a fool only 42% of the time.
The fun is in the winning, NOT in taking the obvious team.
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Argos covered last week.
Teams off two straight away losses have been 7-2 ATS as away dogs, their 3rd straight away game. Come on now, don't get crazy on me....those trends are for betting purposes and it is always against the line unless I state otherwise. In this case I omitted "ATS" for which I apologize.
CFL is a contrarian league, and, as I've mentioned you can look pretty foolish when taking a team like the Argos and it loses. That's why posting plays and keeping a public record isn't easy, but hopefully you/I look like a fool only 42% of the time.
The fun is in the winning, NOT in taking the obvious team.
Thanks for the update shooter...that's what makes this forum really good....there's a minimum of obnoxiousness and people will let others know important information.
Nice to have you on the thread kvngr....appreciate the comments.
Thinking this could be a dog/UNDER week.
Hope all y'all are having good seasons.
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Thanks for the update shooter...that's what makes this forum really good....there's a minimum of obnoxiousness and people will let others know important information.
Nice to have you on the thread kvngr....appreciate the comments.
In the history of the CFL database, home favorites have hit at a 44.9% rate in the regular season.
Breaking it down:
Home non-divisional favorites.....132-158-4, 45.5%
Home divisional favorites 148-186-5, 44.3%
Home favorites greater than -6......123-137-3, 47.3%
Home favorites <=-6 142-190-3.....42.8%
HF and game number<8 109-147-4, 42.6%
HF and game number>=8 171-197-5, 46.5%
So far this season home favorites have been 9-9 ATS and last year they were 25-26 ATS.
Perhaps the linemaker has adjusted.
Perhaps in the less recent past line makers shaded their lines a point or three to the favorites, knowing that the public loves their favs. But in more recent years they're less inclined to do so & are forced to offer up more accurate lines lest they get hammered by the sharps & a more informed public. In which case just blindly betting all the away dogs ATS, an allegedly 55.1% winning proposition in the past, would probably be a losing 50% winning proposition in the future, since you'ld be eating the juice. Well, that's one theory, anyway.
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Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:
In the history of the CFL database, home favorites have hit at a 44.9% rate in the regular season.
Breaking it down:
Home non-divisional favorites.....132-158-4, 45.5%
Home divisional favorites 148-186-5, 44.3%
Home favorites greater than -6......123-137-3, 47.3%
Home favorites <=-6 142-190-3.....42.8%
HF and game number<8 109-147-4, 42.6%
HF and game number>=8 171-197-5, 46.5%
So far this season home favorites have been 9-9 ATS and last year they were 25-26 ATS.
Perhaps the linemaker has adjusted.
Perhaps in the less recent past line makers shaded their lines a point or three to the favorites, knowing that the public loves their favs. But in more recent years they're less inclined to do so & are forced to offer up more accurate lines lest they get hammered by the sharps & a more informed public. In which case just blindly betting all the away dogs ATS, an allegedly 55.1% winning proposition in the past, would probably be a losing 50% winning proposition in the future, since you'ld be eating the juice. Well, that's one theory, anyway.
The Toronto ML got hammered. Since Edmonton went from -528 to only -446. Likewise the spread dropped from -12 back to -10.5. Yesterday some books, e.g. SIA, were as high as 12.5 & 13.
The total in that game continues to decline, from 53 to 52 to 51.5. Also in the Ticats/Wpg matchup from 55 to 54 to 53. The BC/Sask number rose from 52 to 53.
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The Toronto ML got hammered. Since Edmonton went from -528 to only -446. Likewise the spread dropped from -12 back to -10.5. Yesterday some books, e.g. SIA, were as high as 12.5 & 13.
The total in that game continues to decline, from 53 to 52 to 51.5. Also in the Ticats/Wpg matchup from 55 to 54 to 53. The BC/Sask number rose from 52 to 53.
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