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CFL week 8

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Posted: #1
Season to date 27-7 +19.3 units

Things going my way....we'll see what the future holds.

Most sports markets are fluid and what transpired last week or last month changes over time.  I'm going from "stay away" to buyer on the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, as I think Matt Nichols has the "it factor"....and the CFL is a quarterback league.  Their defense is good enough and I believe they'll still be undervalued for another week or so.  What he did with a depleted receiver core, one of whom didn't even have a job in the CFL a week before, that was a pretty impressive performance, as good as any I've seen this season.

Didn't see much of the Lions/Als game but as I said in another thread, the Als did what losing teams do, which is to find a way to lose on a fumble return for a touchdown.  Turnovers just seem to follow bad teams around.

Edmonton probably has hit rock bottom as they've hit the defending champs doldrums.  Their defense was impressive in their loss to Ottawa and they might start winning.  If the linesmaker were to keep making them big favorites, I probably won't be too interested....as a dog with that offense?  

I'm buying.

The lines I am putting up are based on what I think the performance differences are between the teams, NOT what I think would attract equal action as a bookmaker needs to consider.  Line disparities between what I have up and the bookmaker's line would only have credence if my lines have been proven to be superior to the bookmaker's which hasn't happened yet.  

I use other ways of handicapping then comparing my line with a bookmaker line.

Prospective lines week 8

  Home        line         Away       total

Edmonton    -7         Montreal     52

Toronto        -4-        Winnipeg    49

BC               -6         Hamilton     48

Sask           +7         Calgary       55
 
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Posted: #2
I hope those aren't the lines it be a very hard pick this week with all 4 games. Congrats on week 7 I followed
 
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Posted: #3
Thanks Freak....yes, things seemed to work out just the way I'd hoped......life isn't always like that as both of us know.

Prediciting the lines......there isn't much to it.....it just adds a layer of fun to the process.....and gets one thinking about shat the bookmaker is  thinking, which is important.  

If he puts out a line that is a bit crazy, I want to know if he is trying to influence action, and why....this  was a revelation to me....to start thinking like a bookmaker.
 
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Posted: #4
can i get your picks for week 8, thanks
 
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Posted: #5
When you start thinking like a bookmaker , you start thinking 50 / 50 action and it makes it hard. I've been making my own lines for over 10 yrs in football , most in the nfl , when I started I just wanted to see how close mine was to there's and when there close you have to start looking at other things and as you can see 999 and my lines are close , I don't know what else he looks at if its trends or what ,but I look at certain numbers ,is it a must win game , a good team vs a bad team, off a bye wk and much more but there is a limit to how much, or your head just spin's
 
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Posted: #6
An example of comparing lines....is this past week's game between the Ottawa and Edmonton.....I made an early line of Edmonton -6, and bookmakers made a line of -3-/-4.  

Then the analysis process starts....why is this line so off?  Ottawa had been mostly impressive until the last week or two and Edmonton hadn't done much at all, losing to the Peggers as big favorites one time and barely beating them another time on a last quarter bomb. They  beat a terrible Saskatchewan by only 3 at home.

Were the bookmakers crediting Edmonton with last year's championship?  What about the fact that all of the coaches of that were no longer with the team?  

What about the quarterback situation with Ottawa?  Harris was ruled out and Burris was questionable for Ottawa for this game on the back of Burris' terrible previous week performance versus the Argos.

In the end, I believe that the bookmaker shaded the line to encourage Ottawa money, as the on field performance of the two teams warranted Ottawa being more highly favored.

When the linemaker puts a line out that encourages one side....when the performance for the season and the line for that performance are not in sync....it means that the bookmaker is taking a side and/or there is an injury situation.

Perhaps it was a combination of both the bookie wanting  action on one side and the qb injury situation.  

In the end, covers consensus had the betting action at Ottawa 53% and Edmonton 47%, so the line attracted slightly more Ottawa action.

We should consider what the bookmaker is trying to get us to do, and think about doing the opposite...... sports betting businesses live in billion dollar casinos in Vegas,.....and we don't. 

They didn't get to have a palace for a working situation by not knowing what's going on.  Their agenda is to take the majority of the bettors' money, the majority of the time, which they are very successful at.

In the case above, I believe that they were attracting money on the favorite, which is not common.  They normally shade to the favorite (the line is slightly higher than it should be based on actual performance)  because they know the majority of bettors bet favorites and over the total.  Look at any database of any league and if you look up how favorites do in totality, they cover between 46-49% of the time.  

And, if you are living under a rock and haven't noticed, in the CFL this year favorites have been a bankroll killer, just as they are in most years.  If you like betting favorites, you should not be betting CFL games.  

Just to satisfy myself I looked it up....since 2008, favorites have covered 44% of the time in the CFL.

Add on the juice that bettors pay and the bookmaker is not too unlike a roulette wheel, they are extracting about a typical 5% commission on the totality of bets that bettors make.

Ask yourself what is the bookmaker trying to get you to do, if anything when deciding on who you will be betting on.
 
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Posted: #7
Thanks for sharing, very good logic
 
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Posted: #8
Hey Indigo,

Amazing season so far for you mate, keep up the good work.

Your threads are always a good read and definitely make a lot of sense. 

I like the way you think and the logic you bring to the forum mate. This week brings up some interesting match-ups and the one I am looking forward to is the Winnipeg @ Toronto game. Like you, i have been so impressed by Nichols. This guy has it all. The Argo's are a terrible team as a home fav over the years and I really think Peg can get some momentum happening. They missed Dressler last week and the 2H of the game the previous week but that hasn't bothered Nichols. He has made ordinary players look so good with his passes in the last 2 games and lets see if he can do that again. 
 
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Posted: #9
Ok intial line are out,...one surprise.



Edmonton -8   52

Toronto -3-      49-

Sask  +5-  54

BC  -3   55-

The BC line and total are clearly off of my profjections by A LOT.  

The total is a full 7 points higher than I would have thought, and rather than 6 Mr. Linemaker put out a 3.  I'm going to have to let my subconscious  mind deal with this for awhile.

What again is the bookmaker thinking?  What is he wanting me to do?  To me it clearly means that the results that BC has gotten is more lucky than good.  I don't agree with that at all....as well coached teams make their own luck.

I'm going to want to see if Zach is playing this week for the TigerCats.

The other lines?...no surprise except Calgray came a little shorter favrites in their rematch with the Sasquatches.....the book maker would like us to take the Stampeders, or alternatively wuuld like us NOT to take Saskatchewan.  That means to me that one considers taking the Riders, OR nothing.

I'll be back later after I've had a chance to ponder.


 
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Posted: #10
Put this write up last week's thread by mistake...senior moment, sorry about that, so re-posting in the relevant thread...sorry 'bout that.

1)  Montreal +8

An Ugly Dog Special.....what would the CFL be without ugly dogs?   

Our linemaker has put out what I think is a fair line in this game. Montreal doesn't deserve to be less than a touchdown dog in any game except possibly to the Sasquatches.  Riley got bruised and battered and didn't know his own face after the game against  Ottawa last week.....he'll face probably a better defense in Montreal this week.

Edmonton's defense played well last week, but that's one good performance out  six games.  

Have they suddenly turned into the 1985 Bears?  

I don't think so.

Montreal is a veteran team that should respond well after a turnover induced home loss...the question is, can they refrain from the turnovers, penalities and poor coaching that has gotten them beat throughout the season?  

In the CFL is  a basic betting principle that taking ugly teams usually is only a good idea when they're dogs and better still if they're on the road.

Booking Als, and after helping an old lady across the street yesterday, karma is on my side.

2)  Winnipeg +3-

Pulled the trigger early as I don't want to play this at +3 and since I have no idea where this line might move to.....I am playing this early, rather than wait for a chance that this line could go down to 3. 

Winnipeg is almost a default play as a dog these days with a suddenly very impressive quarterback situation and an opportunistic defense.  Feel the coaching match-up is a wash but  have a HUGE advantage at the quarterback position,....Friday night away non divisional dogs before week 11 are 25-5 ATS.  And then of course there is the little factor of Toronto not being able to get a home cover as home favorites.  Last I checked they were 9-18 ATS as a home non divisional favorite last 27 games in that scenario.

3)  BC/Hamilton UNDER 55-

Love both these teams' defenses and coaching....teams that have an average plus over/under margin during the season are good plays to the UNDER as home favorites.  

If Zach plays I don't expect he'll be a world beater his first game back....though I'd expect he'd protect the ball.



In other games wanted to take Hamiton, but the linemaker threw a haymaker at me ....I was expecting more generous points from him but instead of Santa Claus, I got  a piece of coal in my stocking..  

Unless Joe Q. Public helps me out and bets this line up, I might have to watch this on the sidelines.  I may have some totals plays later in the week....I want to see where the public is on totals and then consider going the opposite way.

So, that is it for early week betting....will watch with interest as you chime in on your thoughts, prayers and plays....hehe.  

Will Spottie continue his love affair with the pathetic and ugly Sasquatches?  Hey Spot if you're gonna dance with an ugly chick  she better be good at....ahem......other things.

Inquiring minds will find out soon enough.
 
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Posted: #11
4)  Sask/Calgary OVER 54

The line is moving up....I ran a query on how teams did revenging an away dog divisional loss and then being a home dog, with the proviso that they score >19 points.

Home dogs that score greater than 19 points cover at more than an 80% rate and the OVER covers around 80%.

I am making an assumption that Saskatchewan will score at least 19 points, sure.  I suppose one could say that all of betting is making continuous assumptions.  I'm putting my money behind what I believe what I think will happen, which is the Riders are gonna score some points in their revenger against a divisional rival.

OVER it Baby!
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:

4)  Sask/Calgary OVER 54

The line is moving up....I ran a query on how teams did revenging an away dog divisional loss and then being a home dog, with the proviso that they score >19 points.

Home dogs that score greater than 19 points cover at more than an 80% rate and the OVER covers around 80%.

I am making an assumption that Saskatchewan will score at least 19 points, sure.  I suppose one could say that all of betting is making continuous assumptions.  I'm putting my money behind what I believe what I think will happen, which is the Riders are gonna score some points in their revenger against a divisional rival.

OVER it Baby!

I really like this play Indigo.. Riders D doesn't exist, they don't know what D is. They are 8-2 to the over as well at home as a dog in a divisional game after a game on the road with an average score of 60 points combined. Stamps are also 8-3-1 to the over after a win which they allowed just 20 points or less when the total is 51 or higher. Like the over and i think we see a classic 34-27 kind of game. 
 
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Posted: #13
Well OzMan.....glad you have some alternative research to back up what I am prognosticating.  (I love that word.)

We never can know for sure....they might get a monsoon just in time for the game, but I believe it is a percentage play.
 
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Posted: #14
Another reason why I like Bombers as well is that small home favs off an upset road win don't usually do well in their next home game.

https://www.killersports.com/cfl/query?sdql=p%3AADW+and+HF+and+line%3E%3D-3.5&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

I think the Redblacks were in a bad place when they took on Toronto 2 weeks ago and blew that game. Now i think the Argonauts are in a bad space and with the Bombers playing with a load of confidence, I think they can steal a cheeky win in Toronto. 
 
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Posted: #15
Wow OzMan, that's pretty impressive, good find!

If one ups the line to >=-4 and adds "not DIV", it brings the query to 3-16 ATS.

One would hope all of our vast collective brain power would lead to something good as soon as this week, eh?  

As long as we don't bet a house or even half a house on these games and we stay humble, good fortune may shine on us.





Imagination is more important than knowledge.

Albert Einstein
 
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Posted: #16
Indigo. When will you  make your final picks.
 
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Posted: #17
Spidey,

Netherlands Antilles?....you work in the bookmaking industry there?

Unless Hamilton becomes greater than a 3 point away dog or BC becomes a home dog, I don't envision any more CFL plays this week.

If you work in the industry you'd be more likely to know which way/how far that line will go than me.
 
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Posted: #18
So far this is what I have, the public is pounding BC, but evidently big or respected money is coming in on BC, as we have reverse line movement on that game.

Line movements have been anti-money in the CFL this year, so a casual better should not worry when he sees the line go away from his plays in this particular league.  The betting people who are moving lines are losing. 

College football and college basketball seems to be the realm of smart and big money in sports betting, so when the line moves in those sports, pay attention, as at least in the past, entities like the Computer Group have cleaned up in those sports.

If Billy Walters is playing CFL games and moving lines, he is losing like the majority of the public in the Craziness Football League.    . 

Expect that he hasn't signed off the deed to any of his golf courses or resorts in Vegas or anything rash like that.

Summary of plays this week:

1)  Montreal +8
2)  Peggers +3-
3)  BC UNDER 55-
4)  Sask OVER 54

Note:  if the Montreal line drops another half to full point from its what it is at present (+7),  to 6 or 6- I may consider trying  to middle.
 
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Posted: #19

No, I am just a bartender serving  and making frozen drinks to guest and listen to people talk about sports betting. I found you last week and made some money thank you.

 
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Posted: #20
Correction in my last post first paragraph read......

So far this is what I have, the public is pounding BC, but evidently big or respected money is coming in on BC, as we have reverse line movement on that game.

should have read instead of "public is pounding  BC, but evidently big or respected money is coming in on Hamilton."
 
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Posted: #21
I mentioned on another's thread that the strong early betting could be an indicator that Zach Collaros  will be back.  In other words, inside information money.

If majority of bettors get enamored with his comeback and bet this to pik' it's bettin' time on BC.
 
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Posted: #22
I've made my first two NFL plays for the season using the methodology that I use in CFL games.

The first week of the NFL season I will start a thread for all NFL games in the NFL betting section and of course I'll continue hanging with everyone here for the CFL games I'm playing.

1)  Detroit Lions +5....

they fit 19-3, 33-14, 86-43, and 91-42 angles, some of which are week one angles and others that aren't.  Feel Indy wilh have a mediocre season and while I think Matthew Stafford is a average qb at best, the Lions defense will be above average.

2)  NY Jets +2  

Respect Jets' coach Bowles and feel Jets might take division this year.  I may make a bet on all three of the non-New England teams to win the division this year as they are all getting >+500 last time I checked.  

Bengals will miss playoffs this year...they've lost two receivers, their defensive coordinator and Hue Jackson, their very underrated offensive coordinator.  Their best defender, Burfett is out this game.

Jets to win home opener.


 
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Posted: #23
Aussie , I've been to that killer site before and still don't know how to run it.
 
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Posted: #24
AussieDownUnder and I use killersports to get our historical information.

If interested go to their site and use the instruction manual to learn how to use the language.

https://killersports.com/Download/NFL/query_manual.pdf



“Here's to the crazy ones. The misfits. The rebels. The troublemakers. The round pegs in the square holes. The ones who see things differently. They're not fond of rules. And they have no respect for the status quo. You can quote them, disagree with them, glorify or vilify them. About the only thing you can't do is ignore them. Because they change things. They push the human race forward. And while some may see them as the crazy ones, we see genius. Because the people who are crazy enough to think they can change the world, are the ones who do.” 
? Rob Siltanen
 
 
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Posted: #25
I totally agree on the Bengals
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